


Momentum has been lost on AudNzd as we fall back below the 1.0900 handle. Short-term traders can scratch their remaining longs whilst medium-term traders will have stops still parked around the 1.0850s and waiting to see the close of business today.
Our main target was reached. Scale out, cover costs and trail stop. Long bias is still in play, but no further entries are warranted this week.
72.00 is being rejected and this isn't the kind of performance that we like to see early on in a trade. Depending on your risk appetite, feel free to scratch this trade and keep your powder dry for other opportunities.
USDJPY has progressed as expected, and is signalling overbought readings. Up here in the 110.70s is a decent place to scale out/cover costs.
A combination of Italian political developments and demand for Crude oil are keeping the lid on EURCAD.
As demand remains strong whilst supply tightens, Crude Oil is pressuring 72.00 from below and looks poised for higher prices. Rather low risk compared to the potential upside.
Aussie remains unfazed by April jobs report. Data was in line with expectations but we had a weaker March revision. AUDNZD, which we have been tracking since the beginning of the week, is pressuring 1.0900. Trail stops to today's low, hold exposure for 1.1000.
Follow-up on our USDJPY call from yesterday.
Volatility conditions are intermediate - risks are balanced. Check our Monthly Macro Risk blog post for more information.
US yields are back in focus and above 3%. Most other majors have covered their ATR for the week, leaving USDJPY with a tad of space left. The tight consolidation is something we technically like, despite being uneasy about the North Korea about-face (they are no longer meeting with South Korea). So there are risks to this call.
GBPNZD is on our radar as a potential opportunity during the UK Employment report today. Placing GBP strength (on better data) vs. NZD weakness enhances the odds of having a profitable trade.
RBA's Debelle and RBA Minutes did nothing to discourage Aussie traders. RBA and RBNZ on diverging paths for now, thus sustaining the momentum move in AUDNZD. 200 DMA at 1.0885 broken.
Dovish commentary from Super Thursday failed to inspire further losses in the Pound. What can't drop on bad news is probably poised for a move higher. See full analysis on chart. - J.P.
RBNZ statement last week had a dovish bias, with governor Orr clearly saying he likes a weaker NZ Dollar. Weak PMI data overnight also helped. Momentum is strongly bullish now, and amongst the various pairs for playing NZD weakness, we like AUDNZD for now. - J.P.