Sam_Eder

Sam_Eder

GBP in the spotlight. The Pound bounced from sub-1.2000 levels to end higher on the day after PM Johnson lost his working majority in the House of Commons (following a defection) and after the opposition defeated the government 328-301 and seized parliament. The coming hours will be crucial for the pound - watch for headlines surrounding a vote to call for a...

Sam_Eder

Focus is again on Brexit with the UK House of Commons returning to session. It looks like we are heading for a snap election sooner than expected. Today there will be an emergency debate on a bill trying to force PM Johnson to ask and accept another Brexit extension until 31 January in case no deal is reached no later than at the EU summit 17-18 October. A...

Sam_Eder

The biggest move in markets this week has been the USD. The trade weighed USD keeps pushing higher to the strongest level in two and a half years. Today we also have the ISM due, and we forecast it to come in better than expected, which would also enhance USD strength. Alongside general EUR weakness, we suggest selling EURUSD on a retracement to prior support...

Sam_Eder

The Italian political scene seems to be calming down with some kind of agreement between 5-Star movement and the Democratic Party. Traders would very much like to see the cautious DP back in power as they would likely defuse the tension between Italy and Brussles. We like continued upside today, with the US being away for Labour Day. Buy intraday dips ahead of...

Sam_Eder

Trump surprised markets once again yesterday and announced that tariffs will be delayed to 15 December on a range of goods such as mobile phones, computers and video game consoles . The announcement led to a jump in equities and bond yields along with a surge in the oil price and yen. In the absence of other dynamics, there may be marginal upside to be had...

Sam_Eder

Equity markets are lower today, on the back of lingering trade uncertainty and also HK protests. Embattled Hong Kong leader Lam said the Asian financial center is at risk of sliding into an “abyss". This is influential since it is de-facto a Chinese matter, which won't help the already tense international situation with the US. We continue to expect downside...

Sam_Eder

European Indices trading lower across the board, with the FTSE MIB under-performing due to Banking sector as BTP yields rise sharply. Italy Dep PM Salvini is calling for a General Election Sell on pullbacks towards the most recent support zone, looking for 19600s.

Sam_Eder

Kiwi is down sharply, corresponding with a big rally in New Zealand bonds. RBNZ surprised markets with a 50 bp rate cut that was larger than expected. Cited headwinds from slowing global growth, and Governor Orr said rate cut did not rule out further action. We expect Kiwi to fall further, so selling near pullback levels is our strategy.

Sam_Eder

Risk Off! After Trump's addition of tariffs on Friday, China has gone on the offensive by asking state buyers to halt US agricultural imports. We are sure to receive a response from the US soon enough. We expect further downside to AudJpy this week. Sell on a pullback to Friday's low.

Sam_Eder

Risk Off! After Trump's addition of tariffs on Friday, China has gone on the offensive by asking state buyers to halt US agricultural imports. We are sure to receive a response from the US soon enough. We expect further downside to equities. Sell on a pullback to Friday's low.

Sam_Eder

The Dow fell more than 1% on the FOMC decision as further rate cuts are not guaranteed. Actually the way traders interpreted this is that the cut was an "insurance cut", with no more to come. Equity markets are feeling the force of gravity from the yield curve movements. We like the odds of further softness today, but would only play continuation breakouts when...

Sam_Eder

As expected, the FOMC cut 25bp albeit with 8-2 vote. A bit surprisingly, the Fed also decided to end its balance sheet reduction. Most importantly, the Fed repeated in the statement that it ‘will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion’, which we interpret as an easing bias suggesting more cuts may come. However, it is also clear that Powell will not...

Sam_Eder

NZD may be reversing. It's early days yet but the Bird fell after Bloomberg reported that the RBNZ is looking to refresh their unconventional policy strategy. “This year the Reserve Bank has begun scoping a project to refresh our unconventional monetary policy strategy and implementation. This is at a very early stage,” the RBNZ said in response to an Official...

Sam_Eder

Last week Crude plunged 7.61%, as global growth and demand concerns led to speculative longs to bail out. However, on Friday Crude closed 0.80% higher, as tnsions between the west and Iran supported the price. We are ata key juncture after Friday's higher low. Short-term long-setups can be considered with tight stops, looking for 57.20s initially.

Sam_Eder

Equities lost ground last week, as earnings reports from major US banks and other large US companies didn’t inspire a lot of confidence. This week sees some of the FAANG companies report – with Facebook, Amazon and Alphabet in the lineup of earnings reports. Bellwether Caterpillar also reports so the forward guidance from these companies will shape ...

Sam_Eder

Equities lost ground last week, as earnings reports from major US banks and other large US companies didn’t inspire a lot of confidence. This week sees some of the FAANG companies report – with Facebook, Amazon and Alphabet in the lineup of earnings reports. Bellwether Caterpillar also reports so the forward guidance from these companies will shape ...

Sam_Eder

Stocks are higher on a combination of factors: positive results from Microsoft; news that Mnuchin and Lighthizer spoke again with Chinese officials yesterday; FED's Williams hinting at a stronger easing bias. We like the odds of continuation today, looking for new all-time highs in the Dow.

Sam_Eder

On Thursday, UK retail sales beat, The Irish PM was confident the border issue could be resolved and EU negotiator Barnier expressed willingness to seek out alternatives to the Irish backstop. Meanwhile, the UK House of Commons voted to back an amendment designed to make it tougher for the next PM to suspend Parliament in an effort to force a no-deal...