Sam_Eder

Sam_Eder

UK leadership hopefuls launch campaigns to take control of Brexit today. Initial news due around 17.00 CET. Boris Johnson is the main candidate and he is pro-Brexit. GBP is being pressured because of this, since no EU-Government wants to see a no-deal Brexit. At the same time, Canadian data was extremely strong and we like the odds of further weakness in...

Sam_Eder

PM May will be leaving today, and this opens the debat for her successor. Boris Johnson is the main candidate and he is pro-Brexit. GBP is being pressured because of this, since no EU-Government wants to see a no-deal Brexit. At the same time, IVEY PMI was better yesterday and CAD Employment may beat. We like shorting pullbacks from current levels to 6980.

Sam_Eder

Oil prices rose around 1% to move further away from five- month lows hit earlier in the week, buoyed by a report that Washington could postpone trade tariffs on Mexico and signs OPEC and other producers may extend crude supply cuts. We like the odds of a bounce from 53.00 towards the short-term resistance in the 54.20s.

Sam_Eder

EurUsd remains in a range after the ECB left rates unchanged, announced favourable TLTROs and pushed the first rate hikes into 2020. This was ALL PRICED IN. The Euro is now higher as a result. We may take out the 1.1300 level if Draghi does nothing to inspire dovishness.

Sam_Eder

The Euro has held up recently due to the US Dollar weakness. However, ECB Villeroy said Europe was facing great economic uncertainties, with trade tension the biggest threat to growth. On the data front, Eurozone CPI was softer than expected. At the same time, Kiwi did receive a bit of support after the RBNZ Assistant Governor said rates would remain 'broadly'...

Sam_Eder

No change in our stance on BitCoin. We are in a range, consolidating ahead of future breakouts. Bias remains up as the market accumulates for a break through all-time highs.

Sam_Eder

The Australian Dollar has been bid up on Tuesday, despite today's RBA rate cut and round of softer Aussie retail sales. Why is AUD stronger despite the rate cut? Simply because it was already priced into the market, while the softer data has been less of a focus. We are close to targets currently, and we have Gov Lowe speaking in just over 30 minutes. Stay flat...

Sam_Eder

US equities slid and sovereign bonds surged as investors feared President Trump's shock move to slap tariffs on Mexico risked tipping the United States, and maybe the whole world, into recession. The risk-off move has been strong during Asia and we like Dax shorts as a way to play this theme into Europe. Today, since we already pushed through the target, we...

Sam_Eder

We like continuation breakouts on BitCoin from the current situation. However be cautious of aberrations and spikes. Liquidity on the "true" bitcoin is very low and thus the cryptocurrency is prone to manipulation. Keep your stops in the machine at all times, and prefer short holding periods. This is a trading vehicle, not an investment!

Sam_Eder

Risk off is definitely the theme today. Asian stocks and U.S. futures tumbled on Trump’s Mexico tariff surprise, while reports of Beijing’s plan to restrict exports of rare earths to the U.S. if needed added to ongoing trade war angst globally. Data also showed China’s manufacturing sector slowed more than expected in May. JPY crosses have been sold...

Sam_Eder

US equities slid and sovereign bonds surged as investors feared President Trump's shock move to slap tariffs on Mexico risked tipping the United States, and maybe the whole world, into recession. We like the odds of selling Dax this morning on a continuation break, in line with the risk-off sentiment.

Sam_Eder

We are initiating coverage of the "real" Bitcoin after Craig Wright (craigwright.net) claimed to be Satoshi Nakamoto. Coverage of Crypto will always be more technical in nature than in FX or other assets as it is a purely speculative vehicle. Yesterday's Continuation breakout pushed prices to all-time highs. Profit taking is to be expected now. Prefer...

Sam_Eder

We are initiating coverage of the "real" Bitcoin after Craig Wright (craigwright.net) claimed to be Satoshi Nakamoto. Coverage of Crypto will always be more technical in nature than in FX or other assets as it is a purely speculative vehicle.

Sam_Eder

US equity markets came under strong pressure. Lower equities and trade war concerns have pushed 10Y US treasury yields down to 2.24%, the lowest level since the autumn of 2017. This is maintaining a risk-off tone in the markets. We like selling Nasdaq today on intradya pullbacks or continuation breaks!

Sam_Eder

The risk of a battle between the EU and Italy is looming after the EU signalled the launch of an EDP on the deviation of Italy’s 2018 fiscal figures from the EU targets. Statements from the Italian government suggest Italy will not stand down. Sell at market, since we have broken through the continuation point!

Sam_Eder

In the UK, Nigel Farage's Brexit Party conquered the vote hands down. Now the odds of a no-deal Brexit are higher and GBP may not have priced this in. At the same time, NZD has started off the week with decent strength. We like the odds of playing intraday pullbacks looking for key targets today.

Sam_Eder

Italian markets came under strong pressure yesterday as Bloomberg ran a story that the EUCommission June 5th will consider a disciplinary procedure over Italy’s failure to rein in debt. An Excessive deficit Procedure is a lengthy process, but if the story is true, the standoff between Italy and the EU that we had expected in the autumn could start much earlier....

Sam_Eder

Fundamentals have not changed. The speculative flows are violent on cryptocurrencies. Our initial continuation entry was triggered. New Gap Support has also formed, which would be the ideal pullback area. But breakouts can also be considered above the continuation point.