I was hit by risk off sentiment last week as FOMC on Wednesday was more dovih than expected. Risk averse trading is going forward on Monday as well. If this momentum continues EUR/USD might go higher from current levels on more unwinding hedged positions.
The strength in US single-family Housing Starts pushed EUR/USD a leg lower today again. This does not mean that the pair will not go down tomorrow. I think it will retrace overnight and tomorrow morning and will be higher before FOMC meeting. We will see.
EURUSD has been testing 1.1200 level today so far unsuccessfully. All eyes are now turning towards FOMC Meeting Minutes Wednesday next week. I am going to sell the pair but do not know yet where and when.
8:11 CET: EURUSD seems to have a strong resistance above 1.1215. Markets are stabilizing at the moment after the third devaluation of the Chinese currency by PBOC on Wednesday night. I want to see US Retail data first and then I will probably sell the pair.
EURUSD is forming a triangle pattern and probably nothing will happen before US NFP data is issued later in the day. I do not know which way to play so I am going to stand aside during the announcement. However, I have been shorting the pair so far but a strong support is seen at 1.0800/30/50, so?
Sell EUR/USD Better than expected and the highest in 10 years US service data may help the Dollar against the Euro to break below 1.0830 level even before tomorrow's NFP data is issued. We will see.
11:53 CET: All EURo shorts closed. Some support could be seen lower at 1.0800/30.
15:20 CET: Shorters were caught today due to a thin market and low US wage growth data. I am still interested in selling the pair at 1.1100 targeting 1.0923. As mentioned above NY cut could have made the move today.
If there is no any kind of rumor later in the day and nothing is changed till NY cut, I think EUR/USD will fall further from higher levels. However, some strange talk regarding IMF and Greece leaked out yesterday afternoon and CHF is also benefiting at the time of writing which is not good news, so?