SemperTrader

08:53

SemperTrader Updated 

Welcome back to my study. In the video I will wrap up how the oil contracts went (mediocre but made money), where trends are, and my two current positions in the ES and the 6A contracts. Trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ES Contract) 30m - 4833 Downtrend (12/29/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4806 Downtrend (12/29/2023) Higher Low 2Hr - 4818 Downtrend...

08:53

SemperTrader Updated 

Hey everyone! Sorry for being away for a bit, while we did follow my red graph down and I had shorted into some of that, I did not feel comfortable following it back up and went over to trade several 6E contracts instead. Not sure the income difference was much, but it felt like a safer trade following long term valuation of the Euro than hoping stocks regain...

06:21

SemperTrader Updated 

So, as I explain, all the trends currently are in lower modes, except the Daily. I don't see the Daily beating out every other trend at this time, though I would like to see a Daily Uptrend, be it if we are going to head higher or lower, just so that it is on board and updated. Currently I'm Long at 4468 because trends maxed themselves out yesterday to the down....

09:12

SemperTrader

So we struck that 4350 recently and I got back into trading then. I didn't make a video at the time as I was still getting back into things. After taking to Long positions, one at 4350 and another at 4370ish, I was able to capitalize on them both. My issue now is lower timeframe trends call for lower movement, medium timeframe trends call for at least a brief...

06:22

SemperTrader

Hey all! Made a quick video to look at the market and just check in. I'm still enjoying my self made vacation and taking time away from the market while I think it is overinflated, as I want to see some normality come back in before I feel comfortable trading again. However, just wanted to say hello, explain what I'm waiting for, and wish everyone else best of...

09:33

SemperTrader

So while I've had some gains on this market, especially below the 4300 range, at this point I cannot explain where this extreme level of optimism and risk taking behavior is coming from and I think it is time for me to walk away. While I can agree we are in a Bull Market, and I do not think at this point that we will be visiting the lows of 2022 without some...

08:07

SemperTrader Updated 

So we ran along the 30m uptrending line yesterday, and keep nearing striking the 6hr insanely steep ascending trendline I didn't think we could maintain. Much to my dismay, I am sitting in my negative trade. I may soon just eat a loss, which will cause me to take a day off as per my risk management plan. Luckily at the moment I did go Long yesterday in a couple...

07:56

SemperTrader Updated 

So I have some other catching up to do, but currently it appears the ESU contract is now here, and as I've said over the last few weeks, I felt that the ESM contract was clearly going to be an upward moving contract, and that any leg down would be over the next contract. I continue to comment that with the major price gains on major tech stocks, if investors don't...

09:12

SemperTrader Updated 

So I'm Long again in the ES from 4180 at the 6hr Higher Low downtrend point. I'm looking to see if we can get a 30m or even a 1hr uptrend and then I will likely cash out. I've an issue with the excessive upward slope of the 6hr, so I am currently looking at it as unreliable, but maybe over the next few weeks we will see a strong swing upward. This flat market...

05:43

SemperTrader Updated 

With things like NVidia at 175x Forward Earnings, I really see some pullback here on these overheated tech stocks. However, I am waiting to see the upward momentum waver before I decide to go in short on this overly optimistic AI fueled rally. Trends are now maxed out to the upside, and so I expect some pullback there as well so we can have trends to take us...

03:27

SemperTrader Updated 

I'm on my laptop working outside on my deck so this will probably be a bit brief. We basically have a flatlined higher high on the 2hr, I've gone short with it, but anything above this and my short positioning will be fizzled out for now. I'm up about $1000 on my 6E trade so I will be quick to cash out for a $4000 profit week and call it. Trends into today; Last...

07:15

SemperTrader Updated 

So the NVidia story could really disrupt the narrative that trends were pushing. Personally, while I like the optimism for NVidia, I can't say I'd want to get in at 230% valuation gain on the year. However, what do I know? I trade S&P Futures, not NVidia stocks. Ultimately I still think the overbought tech sector can't continue to carry the entire market, and...

05:53

SemperTrader Updated 

So I did jump into a brief short and got my weekly goal from 4160 to about 4148. Once we hit there we settled in with a 6hr downtrend, which is a higher low and is now also violated. While I feel that this downward momentum is long overdue and should continue, my trading strategy is to trade on trends and currently every single trend is violated except the 30m and...

05:52

SemperTrader Updated 

So the 30m and 1hr were able to squeak out some signs to head lower, and because of that I jumped in Short at 4204. I'm certainly not completely sold we are dumping anymore since we broke the trends that were shifting us to the downside. I will hold this short until the 2hr signals a downtrend which is without a doubt going to be a higher low and then I will...

04:29

SemperTrader Updated 

So with us back at the top of the range bound area we have been in of 4100-4200, the longer term trend of a 6hr has provided a lower high entry point. After getting stopped out from my previous entry point I've gone back in again at 4181. Being that the 30m/1hr/2hr and now 6hr are calling for a pull back down, and we are not above the funnel range of the 4hr and...

07:13

SemperTrader Updated 

So we got a 30m lower high uptrend this morning after getting the higher low 30m yesterday. I went Long at the close of yesterday looking to get back up, and it did overnight but ultimately came back and profit stopped me for only $200 before heading up the rest of the way. With the lower high 30m at 4136 I've gone Short this morning at 4139. I was up fairly...

05:19

SemperTrader Updated 

So we ended up with the 30m higher high by 2 points when it came in. That let's the 30m call for correction, the 1hr-3hr calling for a movement down, the 4hr fairly neutral, and the 6hr/12hr calling for movement up. All in all I feel like there is less direction into today than yesterday. I sat out yesterday and may likely sit out again today. Trends into...

08:04

SemperTrader Updated 

So here you are again, sitting at the mid 4150 level. Overall trends have shifted from an upside trend movement at the beginning of April (Yes... we got stuck up here since April) to a downside trend movement now in the Middle of May. I think we are very close to getting a 1hr uptrend, which will be a lower high, and then I'll be looking to see if we reverse from...