Sive-Morten

Sive-Morten

Morning folks, Now we do not see yet any background for a "big game". Market needs time to manifest the next step. We said previously that it might be either direct upside action or big reverse H&S on weekly chart. Now it is too few time passed to understand this. On a daily chart we have bearish context and engulfing pattern. So all that we have for Mon-Tue...

Sive-Morten

Morning folks, So, last time BTC was not able to show retracement that we've suggested. In fact by the end of the session, no reversal day was formed. It was some fake alarm. Our long-term 110K target has been completed, so monthly grabber has reached the minimum target. But for now we see nothing to do. We consider no shorts. Market stands confidently around...

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Morning folks, So, last setup worked just partially - action started from 101K as suggested but BTC completed only 1.27 butterfly target, showing sharp reversal. Current reversal is important because market is neither on some target, resistance or overbought. It means that reversal is driven by external factors. Although our long-term bullish view is still...

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Morning folks, So, since Monday situation barely has changed. As we said - retracement should be small and we pointed 101K support area. 98K is also nice but it is a kind of vital area for this setup. Now you could see everything goes great. Market is moving out of 101K. Here is two shapes might be - immediate upside action by butterfly, or still, a bit deeper...

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Morning folks, So, everything goes with the plan and we still consider 110-111K area as the nearest target. At the same time this area agrees with weekly and daily overbought, so direct upside breakout hardly possible. Naturally, when the market is already near the target it doesn't show deep retracement. Thus, we suggest that either upward action continues...

Sive-Morten

Morning folks, So, the pullback to 88-89K area that we discussed last time has not happened. Market turns to direct upside continuation. Now it has no big barriers ahead, which means that 110K is the major target for now. On Intraday charts we have another one - 102.5K which is the nearest one. We consider no shorts by far. For long entry you could use any...

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Morning folks, So, upside spike has happened and our 3-Drive + butterfly patterns are done. Although we haven't got continuation to 98K area that also was on a table. Now short-term sentiment has changed. Recent data shows that the Fed doesn't need to hurry up with rate cut, yields turns up, so BTC also could follow the common tendency with deeper retracement....

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Morning folks, So, market mostly stands at the same place where we leave it last time :) But now our monthly bullish pattern is officially confirmed, so mid term direction is up with 110K target at least and potential progress up to 127K. Now we see a lot of minor bullish signs pointing on upside breakout attempt. Last time we talked about 3-Drive, but today...

Sive-Morten

Morning folks, So picture almost has not changed since our last talk. Now we get great setup on monthly chart with upside potential starting from 110K and up to 127K. And our task now is to join this coming action. It would be great to get a pullback, but the shape of intraday market has changed slightly and it seems that BTC is forming 3-Drive "Sell" with...

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Morning folks, So, our 2-week journey successfully over, market hits 93K targets and even overcome them a bit, completing H&S AB=CD extension. Now what? In general we expect very good 1-3 months for BTC based on our recent fundamental report. Speaking about short-term situation. Market is obviously overbought a bit. So we prefer to wait for pullback somewhere...

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Happy Easter, So, our bullish trade is started well. But for now we wouldn't consider too extended targets. Based on AB=CD that we have on 4H chart , next extension is around 93K. But here is a tricky moment exists and it relates to the H&S shape and strong 87-89K daily resistance. The point is that the right arm is yet to be formed, and it could be started...

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Morning folks, So, picture barely has changes since our last discussion. Right now we do not see any ready-to-trade setups. But suggest some bullish support to the market. After major XOP target has been reached - BTC has not dropped but remains in tight consolidation. This is more a bullish sign. In general, we could suggest here a kind of reverse H&S shape....

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Morning folks, So, our 80-85K trade was nice. Now we think that it is not time for big trades, mostly because many markets, and especially US bonds and dollar are overextended. That's why for a few sessions we're focused on near standing targets. BTC daily chart shows strong resistance around 87-89K area, which is also might be the neckline of potential...

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Morning folks, So, the upside bounce to 80K resistance that we were watching is done now. It has happened even twice. D. Trump so efficiently tarrifying markets, and them provides them the relief that BTC mostly is just a hostage of this so called "news stream". Actually as well as all other markets. Once 90 day tariffs postpone has been provided, stocks...

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Morning folks, So, our long-term bearish journey that we were following for 4-5 weeks comes to an end. BTC more or less hit our 74K target and strong weekly support area . The next one stands around 69K, but market strongly needs a new driving factor to break ~70K support area, and hardly this will happen this week. Taking in consideration that market is...

Sive-Morten Updated 

Morning folks, So, not occasionally we said in previous 2-3 updates that BTC action doesn't look bullish and we suggest a new nosedive. Now we have bearish engulfing pattern on weekly chart . And consider these two Fib levels for another short entry attempt. Of course, 86K would be just perfect, but it could start earlier. One of the possible shapes we consider...

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Morning folks, So, today we need just 1H chart as not many events happened. In a recent two weeks people start making upside revisions on BTC price, based on recent JPow comments on QT contraction. We agree that it has some reasons and supportive to BTC, but they forget that GDP forecast was cut, while inflation increased, which points on stagflation...

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Morning folks, Here is just minor update to our last idea. BTC mostly was flat in recent two sessions, so action is started only today. So, the plan that we've prepared remains valid. Since an area around 90K is a strong resistance, we think that short entry attempt there is relatively safe, and at least should give us the chance to turn it to breakeven trade....