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Watching for intraday BTC bounce first
BTCUSD
, 1D
Long
BTCUSD: Watching for intraday BTC bounce first

Morning folks, So, neither NFP data nor technical picture helped BTC to stay above 117. While US Treasury is started drain liquidity and borrow (they need 1 Trln this month), sending ~ 150 Bln to its TGA account with the Fed - BTC got hurt. Now price stands at vital area - previous tops. If BTC will drop under 110K, collapse could start. Let's hope that this...

Keep following to the H&S Pattern
BTCUSD
, 120
Long
BTCUSD: Keep following to the H&S Pattern

Morning folks, To be honest, not too many things to talk about. We've prepared our scenario with H&S is still valid. Reaction to GDP numbers was quite welcome as it set the right arm's bottom. The only thing that we have to be busy with is to control its validity - reaching of the neckline and price standing above 116 lows and right arm. At the first signs...

BTC 116.70K stands in focus
BTCUSD
, 120
Long
BTCUSD: BTC 116.70K stands in focus

Morning folks, Once we've prepared the analysis, we've got upsetting squeeze down, thanks to Galaxy massive sell-off. I don't know what they were trying to do - either hunted for stops under 116K, or just sold in most unwelcome moment... but unfortunately such an issues are out of our control. For now - BTC totally reversed this sell-off and once again shows...

BTC Ready to Start to 125K
BTCUSD
, 120
Long
BTCUSD: BTC Ready to Start to 125K

Morning folks, Better if you combine this update with previous idea. Now it seems that BTC stands in swamp action, flirting around 116K, which might be looking a bit bearish. But by our view, this is not quite so. First is, triangle patterns as on daily chart as on 4H chart are look great and quite bullish. Pay attention that on 4H chart all sell-offs were...

Risk 116. Target 123-125K
BTCUSD
, 60
Long
BTCUSD: Risk 116. Target 123-125K

Morning folks, Prior 1H H&S was done, we were watching on 120K resistance area, as we said last time. Now, on 1H chart H&S is showing signs of failure - too extended right arm, no downside breakout. Price is taking the shape of triangle . All these signs are bullish. Because butterflies very often appear on a ruins of H&S, we suggest that this one could be...

120K is the Key.
BTCUSD
, 60
BTCUSD: 120K is the Key.

Morning folks, Our last plan worked perfect - market re-tested 117K support and jumped out. If you have longs - you could keep it. We consider now two alternative scenarios, although we think that this one with triangle is more probable, we do not exclude the H&S shape on 1H chart that could lead BTC down to 112-113K support area. So, if you do not know...

127K
BTCUSD
, 1D
Long
BTCUSD: 127K

Morning folks, So, BTC shows even better performance that we thought, although it obviously something stands behind, this is not market-natural motion. Anyway, we consider 127K level as all-time nearest target that stands on monthly chart. If any pullback starts (BTC now is at daily overbought and near Yearly Resistance Pivot), we keep an eye on 117.2K and...

115.70K is the next one, 107K - Risk
BTCUSD
, 240
Long
BTCUSD: 115.70K is the next one, 107K - Risk

Morning folks, Just to keep it short... our butterfly worked perfect, we've got our 111.65K target. Overall sentiment stands bullish. But - we do not want to see just stops grabbing around the top (aka Wash&Rinse). We want stable standing above broken daily trendline out of the flag consolidation . So BTC has to stay above 107K lows to keep bullish context...

111.65 against 105K
BTCUSD
, 240
Long
BTCUSD: 111.65 against 105K
Updated 

Morning folks, So we've got great entry with our H&S but it is early to relax. To avoid long explanations - BTC has to stay above 105K lows to keep current tendency valid. So, if you still plan to buy BTC here - you do not need to watch for too deep standing Fib levels. If BTC will still drop below 105K, we could get extended downside action to 100K and maybe...

Wait for something more reliable
BTCUSD
, 120
BTCUSD: Wait for something more reliable
Updated 

Morning folks, Since our last update action was anemic. Nothing has changed seriously. BTC was able to show just minor upside action. Based on current performance, I do not want to take long position right here and prefer to wait for something more reliable. Because BTC action stands rather different from the one that we expected to see. For example it might be...

110K, maybe 112K at the best
BTCUSD
, 240
BTCUSD: 110K, maybe 112K at the best

Morning folks, So, previous setup is done perfect, and BTC even reached 108K area. Now we think that upside potential is limited, at least in short-term. Price is coming to resistance area around 110K and previous top. Some intraday targets point on 112K area as well, but I wouldn't count now on something more extended. The point is US Dollar stands at record...

103 to 101K trade and reverse H&S pattern
BTCUSD
, 60
Short
BTCUSD: 103 to 101K trade and reverse H&S pattern
Updated 

Morning folks, So, our Thu setup is done perfect, both targets are met and even more. Now we consider two different fast trades on BTC. Now context remains bearish and 103K is rather strong 4H resistance area. So, first trade is scalp "Sell" from ~ 103K with "at least" target of 101K. In fact, choosing of 101K as a minimal target is based on the 2nd...

99K and 97.5K potential targets
BTCUSD
, 240
Short
BTCUSD: 99K and 97.5K potential targets

Morning folks, As you can see, not occasionally last time we chose only nearest 107K and 109K targets. Market indeed looks a bit heavy. Now short-term context turns bearish and we consider reaching of 99K target as rather high. Next potential target area is 97.K - butterfly target and daily Fib support. Obviously now we do not consider any new longs and need...

107.6-107.8 and 109-110K
BTCUSD
, 60
Long
BTCUSD: 107.6-107.8 and 109-110K

Morning folks, So, position taking stage is done, now let's take a look at targets. In general we have a sequence of a few targets, starting from 107.6-107.8, 109-110, 113 and 116K. But in current situation I would watch for only first two. Daily overbought is around 114, so 116K target seems too far. 113K is possible, but with rather extended downside action...

106.5K and 104.5K
BTCUSD
, 60
Long
BTCUSD: 106.5K and 104.5K

Morning folks, As we've suggested upward action happened. Now overall situation stands relatively easy to understand. 100K seems like short-term vital area for upside tendency. While two support levels of 106.5K and 104.5K are those which market has to hold to keep tendency intact. I would even prefer 106.5K area because this is also natural support line and...

BTC 1H Reverse H&S
BTCUSD
, 60
Long
BTCUSD: BTC 1H Reverse H&S

Morning folks, So, drop is done due to Trump-Musk conflict, although we haven't called to trade it. Anyway, current picture is much better and doesn't need a lot of comments. We have reverse H&S in progress, with potential area for entry around 102.5-103K where we expect the right arm should appear. Invalidation point is ~100K (bottom of the head).

Weak bearish context
BTCUSD
, 60
BTCUSD: Weak bearish context

Morning folks, Not many changes since our last discussion. Yes BTC moved slightly lower, as we suggested, but you can see by yourself - action is very slow and lazy. Usually when bears control the market, action has to be stronger. It means that overall context remains bearish but it is weak and not very attractive for trading, although it is not forbidden of...

98-101K
BTCUSD
, 240
Short
BTCUSD: 98-101K

Morning folks, Last time BTC was not able to provide the direction as it was standing in triangle and we prepared "neutral" update, waiting for triangle breakout. Now we see that this has happened to the downside and market just stands slightly above XOP target. So we consider 98-101K area as the nearest target. Second, once (and if) this action will be over...

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