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Wait for the weekly close
BTCUSD
, 1W
BTCUSD: Wait for the weekly close

Morning folks, So, reaction on fake ETF news makes evident that this even is highly overpriced. Jump just for 3K discovers that this is purely speculative reaction and no real money stands behind. Mostly I would say that this news is already worked out and no multiple raising of BTC capitalization will happen. Today we suggest to wait for the weekly close. We...

27.4K is vital
BTCUSD
, 60
BTCUSD: 27.4K is vital

Morning folks, So, BTC is moving by some reasons, known only to itself. Market is very thin and it seems that investors just are searching for something to make some moves. The connection to performance as safe haven as risky assets is lost. Now it was reported that some short liquidation has happened and long-term hodlers have accumulated $3.2Mln positions in...

Market is nervous
BTCUSD
, 240
BTCUSD: Market is nervous

Well-well... We see downside AB-CD action that we've planned last week, but it has not started. Market right now is very difficult to analyse, because it is rather thin, trading volumes have dropped dramatically. And any single transaction could trigger big moves. Besides, recent drop is difficult to explain from external factors - US yields are dropping,...

27.2K seems vital for now
BTCUSD
, 240
BTCUSD: 27.2K seems vital for now

Morning folks, Technically we could say that situation remains bullish, as market is coiling right around daily resistance area and stubbornly doesn't want to show deeper retracement that we've discussed last time, so we haven't got better entry levels by far. From the fundamental background - we do not clearly understand reasons for euphoria. The sentiment is...

27 and 26.40 for accumulation
BTCUSD
, 240
Long
BTCUSD: 27 and 26.40 for accumulation

Morning folks, So, based on some recent news, which we think definitely are overpriced, BTC was able to show upside bounce. Our view that the major events are still ahead and 30K level should show whether the major rally starts or not. But, first - BTC has to get there. Now we have short-term bullish context and consider position accumulation around 27 and...

25.8-25.9K target
BTCUSD
, 60
Short
BTCUSD: 25.8-25.9K target

Morning folks, Any rally are rejecting fast due to overall fundamental background. And this is not surprising when you have 10-year yield around 4.6% (which will be 5% within a month, we think) and collapse on stock market. As you could see recent rally has been rejected fast. Now we have few targets, but nearest one is based on bearish engulfing pattern, which...

25.6-25.8K is the next one
BTCUSD
, 120
Short
BTCUSD: 25.6-25.8K is the next one

Morning folks, As we've said emotional reactions never stands for long and fundamentals sooner rather than later will take the domination again. BTC not just has reached our 26.4K target but also has broken the K-support area that was around. Now we're turning to the next one - 25.6-25.8K and do not exclude return back to 25K lows in perspective of 1-2 weeks

26.4-26.5 pullback
BTCUSD
, 60
Short
BTCUSD: 26.4-26.5 pullback

Morning folks, BTC has completed our target of 27.4K. Since current background is not friendly for any rally on BTC, we expect normal market reaction on completion target and strong daily resistance level, watching first for 26.4-26.5K support area.

27.4K still on the table
BTCUSD
, 240
Long
BTCUSD: 27.4K still on the table

Morning folks, Situation has not changed significantly since Thu update. We still keep our short-term upside target around 27.4K. Now price is coiling around 4H K-resistance after completion of COP target (0.618 AB-CD extension). Here we have two bullish signs. First is - tight standing right under the level suggests attempt of breakout. Second - we have...

27-27.4K is possible
BTCUSD
, 60
BTCUSD: 27-27.4K is possible

Morning folks, BTC now is living from one news to another, with record low trading volume and no interest to the market from investors. Despite any short-term spikes, BTC has nothing to offer when Fed rate is around 5.5 and forward stock market yield is already lower than short-term T-Bills one. It makes us think that long-term bearish tendency is intact. In...

Nothing to change - 24.7K on the table
BTCUSD
, 1D
Short
BTCUSD: Nothing to change - 24.7K on the table

Morning folks, BTC is totally dead, very anemic and tight action. 54% of all transactions now is just deposit/withdrawal operations from broker accounts... We have three reasons to keep our bearish scenario and 24.7K target intact: uncompleted downside AB-CD (XOP) target, signs of bearish dynamic pressure (MACD is bullish while price action is not) and high...

Grayscale ETF hype has vapoured out fast
BTCUSD
, 1D
Short
BTCUSD: Grayscale ETF hype has vapoured out fast

Morning folks, As we've warned on Thursday - all this hype around Grayscale ETF is purely emotional and speculative. This topic just was used to shake the boat - that's all. Two days after everything returns back. As we've said already - we do not expect any rally if even Fidelity, BlackRock or whatever else ETF will be approved by SEC. Yes, minor emotional...

When the dust settles
BTCUSD
, 60
Short
BTCUSD: When the dust settles

Morning folks, Poor BTC has got occasion to show the rally on a background of Greyscale Hedge Fund and its SEC dispute. SEC has been obliged by court to review its decision, but, guys, to be honest - how this relies to BTC pricing? Whether it will be Hedge fund or ETF, what's the difference. Its just the way of money investing. Besides, SEC intends to make...

No activity - no changes.
BTCUSD
, 240
Short
BTCUSD: No activity - no changes.

Morning folks, So, markets are a bit frustrated by recent J. Powell speech and its indecision. Fundamentally nothing has changed - we still have bearish view on BTC market in long term. High interest rates and coming new spiral of inflation in the US leaves no chances to non-interest bearing BTC. When T-notes and T-bills already give 1.8% premium to S&P...

24.7K target is intact
BTCUSD
, 120
Short
BTCUSD: 24.7K target is intact

Morning folks, just minor update for our setup - we keep 24.7K intact. BTC has got unexpected support from the drop of the US interest rates, but we consider this as temporal moment. Still the butterfly pattern has not been formed. For now, we see upside target around 27K, and this is the first level where BTC could turn down again.

24.75K and pullback
BTCUSD
, 120
Short
BTCUSD: 24.75K and pullback

Morning folks, BTC performance once again shows that fundamental factors always dominate over news stream and hype. First is, we've got first Jacobi ETF in EU - and nothing. Investors start doubt about explosive reaction on BlackRock and Fidelity ETFs, whether people will bring their funds there. Second - while US yields jumped above 4% - BTC has collapsed. We...

28.1 & 26.5K
BTCUSD
, 240
Short
BTCUSD: 28.1 & 26.5K

Morning folks, So, market once again tells that fundamentals - rules, confirming our mid term bearish view and slowly but stubbornly going to our 28.1K target. Potential bullish scenario of rounding bottom (or cup), has failed, that we've mentioned last time. Now, we're watching for 28.10K downside AB-CD target, with potential continuation within few weeks to...

Interesting point to consider
BTCUSD
, 120
BTCUSD: Interesting point to consider

Greetings everybody, BTC picture remains tricky. Fundamentally, we do not see any reasons for BTC rally and keep untouched OP target that we are discussing in lat two weeks. Still, since market is forming symmetrical round bottom on 1H chart, it seems it stands now in perfect position for long entry where risk/reward ratio is maximal. It doesn't guarantee...

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