Slimsy

Slimsy

Some food for thought. The breakout may be sooner than the chart suggests due to special circumstances we are in and strong demand. The risk lures behind the dollar movement. Even though Fed provides liquidity, it still may not be enough to calm the markets (and especially interbank market) with 3.4mn jobless claims shooting up the face

Slimsy

I believe gold dropped in the first half of March on liquidity issues of investment funds. However, the fundamentals force it to go up. 1. History tells that gold goes down until Fed joins and addresses liquidity issues. It already did. 2. Futures decouple from spot prices at a rate rarely seen before. Huge demand. I do not rule out a small correction toward the...

Slimsy

While maybe just a coincidence it would reinforce my bearish view on equities. Option traders always informed of things

Slimsy

Reverse cup and handle formation with fibonacci supporting from below. USD make-or-brake point. I believe dollar's price is lower thanks to central bank easing, but at the same time for some. Not sure how those government-supported hedge funds fare these last days. Possible upward movement on more bad info on covid while long-term price is lower.

Slimsy

US10Y strongly decoupled although last day moving together. USDJPY approaches resistance which I set a year ago. (Added shaded rectangle now) Bid on JPY expected as world goes full Japan, while Japan is already there. This is not yet reflected in the fundaments

Slimsy

Opportunity to jump the train. COVID19 vs fiscal stimulus (or central banks) positioning. Possible another one day of rally but I don't believe anything further than that.

Slimsy

SPX is above its 50-DMA and below its 200-DMA. Everyone is wondering about it's next move as the global data is poiting towards a recession. I believe we are not exiting the bear market yet and it is just the beginning. At least it would be already a full-blown bear market without all the central bank liquidity injections. Some food for thought: If SPX is below...

Slimsy

This fine weekend I bring you this interesting data while looking at 50-day moving average of IXIC: Probability of markets SPX declining in the next two months following NASDAQ breaking above its 50-DMA is 75% (n=13) with average return of -3.53% (sorry for not including SD) with performance in the first month being more or less random. So, will february and march...

Slimsy Updated 

The stock appears to have formed a double wedge. It has gone up through 2018 and showed great resistance to market volatility. It has a great chance of breaking upper wedge and reach up the 52-week high. Remember that earnings date is coming and this may be the good catalyst for confirmation of the breakout which will probably happen before earnings.

Slimsy

Over the last 5 years, there have been 9 independent observations where the S&P 500 Stocks at 10-Day Highs Minus Lows crossed below the level of 300. After 5 days, the S&P 500 returned an average of 0.97%, with the return being positive in 89% of the observations. Tuesday 22nd >> Tuesday 29th

Slimsy

Bullish flag breaks on though the top and I drop some knowledge right here: Between 24-Jan-2014 and 23-Jan-2019, there have been 7 independent observations where the Average 5-Day RSI for S&P 500 Stocks crossed below the level of 70. After 5 days, the S&P 500 returned an average of 0.65% (SD 0.78%), with the return being positive in 86% of the observations. SPX...

Slimsy Updated 

Rates drop as stocks reach upper resistance.

Slimsy

Indexes entered the bullflag pattern. At the open we should see a clear signal what will happen. As of writing this post, the US10Y is falling and diverging a from stocks a little.

Slimsy

Cronos, the cannabis company has showed recently a lot of momentum. Stock market rally is of use here. But as the market looks like if it is wondering about its next move, this stock looks like it is poised to go down. It has a history of pullbacks whenever it crosses upper kelt. I believe there may be a pullback to around 13.63-12.85 within a couple of days....

Slimsy

Looking at ES1! and all the PPT interventions can make one wonder how to invest in a sick market such as this one. It is hard indeed, better stay put. The night has brought us a slump in equities but at the open the magic buyer appeared and bought... EVERYTHING carrying the market towards green numbers. Meanwhile, rates seperated from equities, and judging by who...

Slimsy Updated 

Rates up, spoos down. Divergence noted. Now we the question is who is wrong. Either way the two have to meet again somewhere. ES1! is below the midnight open price. Next support at 2583. Resistance now at 2595.5, next one - upper kelt around 2600.

Slimsy

We are in the point of great uncerainty. This point in fact repeats every month since the beginning of February 2018 since all the market idleness has vanished. If the month closes around this level where it is now it will mean another big-ass red candle right in our face after already the October one. The analysts see the recession coming soon. The bad news...

Slimsy

Silver is closing in on its 17800 resistance line which has hold multiple times since october. I presume the price will stop at this resistance at first and then may head lower as a sign of a correction. Then, if the bottom is higher than last high it can mean the continuation of an uptrend. Watching closely. Additionally gold looks to be carrying silver upwards....