Entered this trade @ 08h NY time. See notes below for my whole top down analysis. Note: Before all this, I waited for the DXY to confirm bearish Price Action on the dollar. If the dollar wasn't bearish, this whole trade idea would be low probability for me.
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-Wednesday high formed (Judaswing) - Sell side below market as driver - Intraday bullish PA expected on DXY
My bias is bearish. I want to see in the beginning of the week higher price movement, going into the range, catching inner liquidity. When market is in premium conditions, price can start to distribute and sell off efficiently. (Expecting high of the week formed on wednesday or thursday) Daily analysis: 1 hour analysis:
Previous weekly low caught. Want to see low of the week formed today, if not, then we are bearish. Lower time frame setups will (probably) follow if market presents an opportunity
(Only go long if expectation is being played out, if not, I will not execute. This is just an idea how I want to see the NYE session and thus still probability that market will do the opposite.) Daily: 1 hour: 15m: Lower time frame setup will follow... (waiting for the NYE opening)
I will ONLY execute if market reacts impulsively in the premium area, meaning a break of structure on the lower time frames in the lower direction. A requirement is that the market took recently liquidity out of the market. There is a great probability this pattern will not play out, only if we are lucky to see this happening, I will anticipate.
In the charts below, my bias is further explained. I want to see market go to my liquidity level mentioned. After this is caught, Market can continue or lower or go higher... Expecting market to be bearish for at least the beginning of this week.
Note: I am not saying this will 100% play out. What I want to say is that if the levels of interested are being respected, there is a likelihood that a potential buy option will be present. Main reasons why: bearish target hit: market potentially ready to reverse premium area of the range is breached (see 15m) lot of imbalanced PA OTHER TIMEFRAMES FOR MORE...
Reasons why listed in chart... General bias is currently bearish, but could change after targets are hit. I will be looking on the lower time frames for signs that the short setup is initiated, this is confirmed by a break of structure, and enforced by divergence with the SPX.
Market manipulated first, then did go impulsively lower, visited premium area, with an impulsive move back downwards, nicely filled IPA on the 1m. Entered on a 1m bearish order block. COURSE: SL HIT possibly looking for a re-entry. RE-ENTRY: TP at 82.65.
(Potentially going to sell in "red area" (= premium area). I will see if this "pattern" will play out or not. To play this out perfectly, chances are small and I am open for adaptibility. I will be cautiouss today because target is already met (see previous post, with my win of yesterday.)
(FOR THOSE THAT THINK THIS IS HINDSIGHT, SEE PREVIOUS POST TO SEE PROOF OF MY LIVE EXECUTION.) I did not take partials and held the position until NYE-close. Level where I should have exited explained below.
Scenario that was prepared yesterday is likely playing out. As an anticipation on this, I am looking to sell after the catch of liquidity, marked with the dollar signs. A lower time frame (5m) analysis to make it more clear. SL will be placed above the potential high of the week (todays current high). As an extra confirmation: I would like to see a divergence...
First entry did not take off immediately, SL was eventually hit but it became soon clear why: market decided to go to discount area, and then react with an impulsive move towards the upside. Market eventually went to premium area (see higher tf: ) execution of the trades:
High probability setup on SPX Beginning of the week: looking for long setups on the indices. Rest of week: anticipating on a possible long term reversal CURRENT EXECUTION:
Waiting on the NYE-open, I want to see a liquidity grab, to then sell off. High of the week should be formed by now. I am cautiouss about this setup because the market is respecting the bullish order flow and there is a great chance that the market will continue it's bullish run. However, I will anticipate on which side of the order flow will be breached. (UPDATE...
Technical analysis of this week. LEGEND White line: short term H/L: liquidity that will eventually be grabbed. purple line: long term: should not be breached, if so, analysis is wrong. green line: equilibrium of the range// TP areas. red rectangle: premium area: bounded by 61.8% and 71% of the range. blue rectangle: discount area: bounded by 61.8% and 71% of...