SometimesLosing

SometimesLosing Updated 

Hi again: Here is, with some examples (scroll the chart to the left), how the strategy works and how you can avoid crashes and even small downturns in the market. On top (dark yellow line) the S&P500, 1D timeframe. The chart below is the XLP/SPX using two moving averages: blue line is the 1 EMA and the pink line a 155 EMA. When the XLP/SPX crosses up the 155...

SometimesLosing Updated 

Another simple, without noise chart: Effective Federal Funds Rate (blue) and the S&P 500 (dark yellow). Since March, with a macro perspective, almost all my 'crash' ideas are showing that the probability of a major crash is in place; the truth be told, with a boring pattern that keeps repeating itself. I don't know if this time will be different, what I know is...

SometimesLosing Updated 

Although the market is broken or almost broken right now (surprisingly TLT joined the crash 'party'), central banks will be forced to print more money (this is it's already happening in some countries) and to pivot. Nevertheless, based on the data, when the US10Y-US02Y reverse to the upside in the following weeks or months, there is still a strong possibility that...

SometimesLosing Updated 

Hi again. There is too much noise out there: a lot of controversial news, information and counter information, 'beautiful' slogans like 'bad news, are good news' and vice versa, or, as an example, good, and not so good, ideas in the 'giant' Internet. For me, a rational approach was necessary. Since March 2022, with simple charts and no bias ideas, I am studying...

SometimesLosing Updated 

Another simple and yet concern chart, at least for me. An almost perfect inverse correlation, right? There is a (high?) probability that the blue line (TLT/SPX) is about to go up towards the yellow line (S&P500)? We will see...

SometimesLosing Updated 

Unemployment Rate (blue Line) compared with the S&P500 (yellow Line). In the previous 3 big crashes the rise of the unemployment rate led to the market fall. In the following weeks/months, pay close attention to the possible employment destruction. Be careful and stay well... as always.

SometimesLosing Updated 

United States Personal Savings ( USPS ) with the 100 EMA trend line . Since April 2020 spike, due to the 'stay at home' Covid year, savings are in a downfall. The trend line , now trending down again, was trending up since around April-May 2008.

SometimesLosing Updated 

Based on this chart, on August 15 we reach the year 2000 level (see the red arrows) of the yield curve. Since then, the curve started its way up, leading the S&P 500 (markets) to the recent trend change: This data will lead us to a major crash as the earlier ones? Time will tell, but be very careful, it's the only we can do, since there are no crystal balls. Good Luck!

SometimesLosing

A more precise approach of this chart: After reaching the white line, now support, there is a possibility that XLP/SPX will go, at least, towards the yellow line. But maybe only the red resistance line will be the next strong inflection point for the S&P 500. With these possibilities in mind to manage my short positions, I will wait to long any asset, except...

SometimesLosing Updated 

Usually Consumer Staples, a risk-off sector, has an inverse correlation with the S&P500 . In this chart, strong uptrends in the XLP / SPX (blue line) coincides with S&P500 (green line) corrections or crashes (circles). There is a possibility that the bottom of the XLP / SPX was the below white line in the chart, while the top one, a historically strong...

SometimesLosing Updated 

This is my particular chart of the well known inverted yield curve with the S&P500 (green line). The blue line reversal (marked by the circles) generally coincides with a big crash. Today it's near the green trend line (see white circle), which means that the reversal could happen soon.

SometimesLosing Updated 

Be careful with data manipulation (regarding the recent job report), check the "Job Openings: Total Nonfarm" (blue Line) and its relation with the previous big crashes (S&P500; yellow line). Check also the "Hires: Total Nonfarm" data: www.tradingview.com Also watch this video: www.youtube.com I hope that the markets recover soon, nevertheless, calculate very...

SometimesLosing Updated 

I would like to give credit to the TradingView user 'jscheurichiv', who suggest me to add the US30Y mortgage rate to this serie of ideas titled "Crash Incoming". As in the previous 3 ideas, it seems to be a relation between the previous big 3 crashes with a strong line of resistance (in red in the chart). Should we assume that the recent 15% correction was that...

SometimesLosing

This time the US30Y-US10Y (thanks to the TradingView user 'jscheurichiv' to remind me this chart). Same principle applies here, in the last decades, several months after the inversion of the yield (blue line) a big crash occurred. Invest, but with extra risk management -'with an eye' in charts like these one, for example-, in the next weeks or months.

SometimesLosing Updated 

US02Y and S&P500 chart, big resistance ahead which led to big crashes. Be careful out there (see also my last 2 ideas).

SometimesLosing Updated 

Vix (blue line), Vix 400 EMA (white line) and S&P500 (green line). I chose the 400 EMA, so we can have a better and cleaner trend perception. An uptrend in the Vix 400 EMA (red arrows) could lead to major crashes or corrections (red circles). Observe that the EMA showed a small downtrend during 2021, but since the end of the same year it recovered the uptrend (see...

SometimesLosing Updated 

A simple idea... S&P500*US2Y. Big crash probability? Tell me what you think.

SometimesLosing Updated 

A simple idea, S&P500*US10Y. Big crash probability? Tell me what you think.