Trying EURNZD lower. Looks like we're forming a bearish wedge and i am expecting it to break to the downside. overall the narrative is changing, the EUR is no longer benefitting from hawkish ECB speeches and could mean the upside in the EUR will be limited by hawkish ECB comments now. the NZD should benefit from a more hawkish RBNZ than expected last week and...
Trying AUDJPY lower this week. Technicals look decent, double top forming at the 200 DMA as well as the 50WMA and a resistance line - should provide decent resistance to the topside. I'm expecting a move lower in risk sentiment/stocks this week. Tomorrow is usually a very poor day for stocks, seasonality for stocks are still quite bearish until about a week or...
Trying USDCHF higher here narrative wise we have a small shift in terms of us recession worries and the fed. US employment data and ISM data last week was good, i think this should help lessen the us recession narrative and in turn this should help the fed keep the higher for longer idea going - should see us yields higher on this which should mean a move higher...
Trying AUDNZD higher here. More of a trend trade, we have a double bottom below as well as support in terms of the price just before AUD CPI came out, that should act as support as well. We also have the 100 DMA just below that could act as support. In terms of narrative we have had decent AUD economic data while the NZD data hasn't been so great, we also have...
Trying NZDCAD lower here. We have a triangle forming on the 4 hour chart and a slight break to the downside. The narrative has shifted as well. the NZD rate advantage it had has been narrowed slowly and with the BoC pausing rates last week i imagine RBNZ will be next. This was one of the big reasons NZD performed so well. Another reason was that china was...
I think EURGBP higher makes sense here. narrative wise you have a very hawkish ECB, more comments earlier today from ECB Knot about more hikes and also lagarde later today who will likely be hawkish. Also have the ECB/BOE meeting in two weeks which will likely see people buying EURGBP as the ECB is hawkish and the BoE is quite dovish. The EU economy is also doing...
From a technical perspective we've got a hammer on the daily chart recently. narrative wise i think the NZD narrative of the china reopening and the NZD rate advantage has moved over to the EUR so the NZD stronger story seems a little stale now. correlations suggest higher, GBPNZD and EURNZD and closely correlated and is suggesting GBPNZD higher, rate...
little risky but trying USDJPY higher here. Most people are expecting the BoJ to raise the 10 year yield cap tomorrow as they believe the initial raise was a floodgate opening to more easing of policy. I think that there won't be any change tomorrow, from what i can see Kuroda wasn't too keen on the first change so i think it is unlikely that he will raise the...
Trying EURAUD lower here. We have a resistance line above and the 50 DMA. tried a couple times to move higher but haven't been able to as well. narrative i think is moving in favour of AUD, AUD had good data last week and will benefit from all the china good news so far this year. sentiment and positioning are extremely high. correlations seem to point lower...
Trying EURNZD lower here. From a technical perspective we have a double top and a resistance line above, we also have the RSI diverging lower on the 4 hour chart as well which makes me think this move higher has run out of steam possibly. We also have a couple doji's on the daily chart in this area which is a sign of uncertainty. I think the narrative for the...
Trying EURGBP lower here. We have a double top forming which should act as resistance. From a narrative perspective i think it might be hard for EUR to push much further higher at the moment, the market i think will struggle to price in more hikes for the ECB currently so i think yields should slow move in GBP's favour. I am expecting a lower US CPI print this...
Trying EURUSD lower here. From a technical standpoint we're forming a double top and we seem to be losing steam to move higher. We've also got a resistance zone above from a US CPI print earlier last year that could halt movement higher. Narrative i think will move in favour of USD over January, global growth worries seem to be coming back a little bit as a...
Trying NZDUSD lower here. From a technical perspective we have nice symmetry from the move down to the move up, RSI is extreme on the daily chart as well. US CPI came in lower than expected but we haven't been able to move higher which i think signals that the move is running out of steam. The market is overall expecting a dovish fed based on the lower...
Trying CADJPY lower here. We have a resistance level above which should hold. We also have US CPI today which i think may be lower than expectations - this should see CADJPY lower if correct as it is a proxy to USDJPY and USDJPY should move lower with yields if US CPI is lower than expected. Seeing a lot of people concerned about canada for next year as...
I'm trying EURAUD lower here. technicals show a double top previously. narrative is moving more towards EURAUD lower, china is reopening slowly which should benefit AUD. EU energy prices were rising again last week and HICP fell as well which could mean more dovish ECB, these two being big drivers of EUR strength recently. correlations suggest lower, VIX is...
I like trying NZDJPY lower here. Technicals provide a good entry/stop level with a nice resistance level that we have bounced off a number of times this year. Narrative wise i think we should be lower, commodities have moved a touch lower and yields seem to have peaked. We also have the RBNZ meeting tonight which i think is what is holding NZD strength up...
Trying AUDUSD lower here. May not hold for long but like trying this for some of today to see where it goes. rallied on rumours of china dropping/loosening covid restrictions this morning at their briefing, this didn't happen though nice double top. expecting USD to rally on global growth worries, still hawkish fed and overall lower moves in commodities....
I like shorting EURAUD here. We've got a top forming around the level we were at before russia and ukraine and the rise in commodities earlier in the year - should act as a pivot. VIX is pointing much lower, china stocks are rallying on reopening rumours - quite telling that they didn't fall from comments over the weekend from officials that the covid rules are...