Trying USDCAD higher here. The pair moved below a support area last week and we've now moved back above this level which should now hold. The pair moved lower on friday due to reopening rumours in china, causing a large rally in commodities and so a fall in the USD and a stronger CAD. Over the weekend we had health officials in china coming out saying the covid...
Trying USDCAD higher here. Decent double bottom on the pair so far. BoC meeting was dovish last week, i'm also seeing a lot of people talking about canadian economy worries and especially housing, while this may not affect the CAD too much i think it should still have somewhat of an impact. We've been moving lower on the pair due to fed pause/pivot narrative...
I think EURAUD could move lower this week, just testing today though so may not have this going for long. nice daily Doji recently which implies market indecision. EURAUD moved higher today on the move lower on the Hang Seng index as EURAUD is a proxy to risk sentiment - i think this may be short term though and allows for a decent entry area for EURAUD to move...
trying a long here on AUDCAD short term, perhaps a day or two. BoC hiked by only 50bps, market was expecting just short of 75bps. Market was sort of expecting a dovish BoC but not quite this much - i think this affects yields going forward and lower yields should mean risk assets higher and AUDCAD higher. stop is just below the level before the BoC decision, if...
I like trying EURNZD lower here with about 2x normal risk. We had a very strong US CPI last week and the day ended in a shooting star for the pair - i think this price action is telling us that the market is very long USD and very short stocks, i think this could lead to some unwind of USD longs which could mean the US500 could rise. I am expecting the VIX to...
I like trying USDCAD lower here. We had a very strong US CPI last week and the day ended in a shooting star for USDCAD at a covid pivot point from 2020 - i think this price action is telling us that the market is very long USD and very short stocks, which should limit future short term USD strength. We also have little USD data this week and i think this could...
I like trying USDCAD lower here. we've had a huge run higher recently and it's looking pretty overbought on a lot of metrics, there's also nice resistance as it is a pivot from covid level in 2020 and we seem to be forming some sort of triple top here. yield differentials are the main reason for the move higher and we are now moving lower which should...
I like trying EURCAD lower here. From a technical perspective we're close to the 200 DMA which has been a good form of resistance for the pair for a while. We are also close to the upper channel on EURUSD which it has rejected lower which could also mean further EUR weakness. Overall the story for the EUR has been good recently but i think we're starting to move...
Trying GBPCAD higher here. I think the narrative for CAD is changing, people were buying the CAD on a strong economy, good trade balance and a hawkish BoC. oil is lower now, commodities are lower, there's global tightening conditions which should mean worse economic performance going forward and the CAD economy has recently been a little worse in terms of...
Trying EURGBP lower here. I think it still makes sense lower and that the move higher is overdone. We're extremely overbought on the EUR on the back of a decent shift in narrative from the ECB, the ukraine story and from potential energy caps in europe. I think think there EUR story is not done to the downside yet though as energy worries still remain and we have...
Like buying EURCAD here. We broke out of a range to the upside recently which i think holds and moves higher. I think the narrative for CAD is changing, people were buying the CAD on a strong economy, good trade balance and a hawkish BoC . I think this is all moving in the opposite direction now while the EUR story is now moving in a good direction, we had some...
Trying GBPUSD higher here. From a technical perspective We've tried to break down at a pretty strong level and the follow through doesn't seem that strong even though the story seems to follow in the same downward direction, we could be running out of steam here potentially. i think that the fed is too priced as 20% chance of 100bps seems unlikely to me with CPI...
trying AUDNZD lower here. Nice resistance above from about 2 or 3 pullbacks previously at this level which should help slow down this up trend. overall the move higher has been on a decent AUD economy and very strong hard commodities on the back of supply issues and russia. I think this is overall moving in favour of NZD now as soift commodities is overall...
Trying GBPAUD higher here. A newsletter i read has recently turned bullish on GBP due to various fiscal/sentiment reasons, i've been looking for a risk off type of trade to take and GBPAUD higher makes sense to me. Nice hammer on the daily chart and a double bottom on the hourly forming. There's a proxy of GBPAUD to EURAUD and therefore the VIX but GBPAUD has...
I like trying a EURGBP lower trade here. Mostly technical as the setup looks really nice, EURGBP has failed at this level 3 times previously so there is strong resistance - the 200 MA weekly is also at this level as well. and we seem to be running out of steam for this move up around here. Also tells us where we are wrong if we move much above this...
Trying AUDCHF higher here We have some decent support below from multiple bottoms on the pair which allows for a attempt at a long. overall makes sense from a perspective of a bounce in risk sentiment, the US500 is higher, commodities are a little higher including copper, there's the potential for a peak in global rates soon as more central banks tighten which...
I like trying a GBPUSD long trade here. Very nice hammer on the daily chart right at the bottom of the covid move in 2020. seems like some of the strength in the downward move in GBPUSD was taken out. Two of the big GBP worries were energy prices rising (leading to worries about a uk recession as well) and political worries with Liz Truss. I think the Liz Truss...
I like trying an AUDCAD short here. nice potential head and shoulders forming here. overall a proxy to AUDUSD as AUDUSD is more volatile than USDCAD. I expect AUDUSD to move lower on the back of last weeks hawkish fed sticking to no rate cuts in 2023 and maintaining course. I think this along with the overall narrratives of global growth worries, global...