SpyMasterTrades

SpyMasterTrades Updated 

The chart above is a weekly chart of the entire price history of the PHLX Utility Sector (UTY). (The PHLX part of the name is just an historical reference to the Philadelphia Stock Exchange, which is now part of the Nasdaq.) I chose this specific ticker over other utility tickers like XLU or VPU because it provides more historical data and therefore a more...

SpyMasterTrades Updated 

This is the daily chart of SQQQ. SQQQ is the ETF that tracks the Nasdaq 100 ETF ( QQQ ) inversely. When tech stocks fall, SQQQ rises. Traders, therefore, use SQQQ to short tech stocks, or to hedge against a collapse in tech prices. There are several bearish signals appearing in the daily chart of SQQQ, which hint that we may soon see bullish movement for QQQ...

SpyMasterTrades Updated 

This is a daily chart of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) with its weekly expected move plotted for August 29th through September 2nd. For those who do not already know, the weekly expected move is the amount that an asset is predicted to increase or decrease from its current price within the current week, based on the level of implied volatility as calculated from the...

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#10 Mortgages The chart below shows the average single-family U.S. home price multiplied by the 30-year fixed mortgage rate. This chart attempts to show how dramatically higher the financial burden of home ownership has become in the United States. Using a cross chart allows us to better visualize the rate of change. Each cross represents one month. We...

SpyMasterTrades Updated 

This is a 2-month chart of the Nasdaq US Composite Index (IXIC). At the bottom is the Stochastic RSI which oscillates up and down depending on how overbought or oversold the market is. There have only been a few times since its inception a half-century ago, that the Nasdaq Composite Index had a 2-month chart this overextended to the downside. The K value of the...

SpyMasterTrades Updated 

I'm surprised that no one on Trading View posted this chart today. The NDTH is a chart of the percentage of Nasdaq 100 stocks that are above their 200-day moving average. It dropped to 6.86 today. This means about 94% of Nasdaq 100 stocks were below their 200-day moving average. The last time this level was reached was in March 2020 right at the bottom of the...

SpyMasterTrades Updated 

...is highly unlikely. The chart above shows the entire price history of the S&P 500. Each candle is a 6-month period. The channel that you see is a regression channel. It shows how far above or below the mean the stock market is at a given time. At the close of 2021, the stock market hit the 2-sigma deviation from the mean. This is about as over-extended as...

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This is a monthly chart of the entire price history of the company Unilever (UL). Unilever engages in the manufacture and sale of consumer goods. Applied to the chart is a log-linear regression channel. This channel helps me better visualize extreme price deviations from the mean. The red line is the mean price, the top blue line is the price that is 2 standard...

SpyMasterTrades

This post is in response to requests for me to give a shorter-term analysis of where SPY might go. Right now the outlook is generally neutral or muted with both bullish and bearish biases battling it out. I will present both bullish and bearish cases for you to weigh. Bull Case Daily chart: On the daily chart, SPY is clearly in an uptrend. It has broken the...

SpyMasterTrades Updated 

In this post, I will explain how traders can maximize their use of log scale on Trading View. I will give examples of when you should use log scale on your charts and when you should not, as well as provide an in-depth analysis of its use cases, including how you can actually visualize the entire lifecycle of an asset using the log scale. In the chart above, I...

SpyMasterTrades

The chart above shows the Rate of Change (over a rolling 5-period) in the Fed Funds Rate. The parabolic Rate of Change is unprecedented, yet the Federal Reserve is just getting underway with quantitative tightening as it pledges to do whatever it takes to squash high inflation. It's hard to imagine the Fed can pull off a soft landing. Ironically, this looks...

SpyMasterTrades

Throughout the years following the Great Recession, many market analysts have warned that the bull run was ending. Here's one such article from 2016: www.yahoo.com So naturally, an important question for traders is how to objectively detect whether or not the bull run has ended by using charts. My chart above aims to do that by using statistical tools....

SpyMasterTrades Updated 

This is just a question for thought, not a trade recommendation: Could the Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ) be ready for a breakout? It's quite rare to find a chart where price has consolidated and appears to be breaking out, and at the same time, the oscillators are ready to move up on both the higher and lower timeframes. This set up can lead...

SpyMasterTrades Updated 

In this post, I will give a market analysis focusing on the current status of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY). As you can see in the chart above, SPY broke out above the exponential moving average ribbon (yellow and orange) lines. Increased volume confirmed the breakout. The ribbon continues to narrow which also confirms the breakout. Moving averages converge during the...

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This chart shows three things. First, the candles show how Walmart performs relative to the broader market (S&P 500 ETF - SPY). Second, it shows how that ratio changes as the unemployment rate goes up (light blue line). Third, it shows the 25-year support line of Walmart's relative performance to SPY (red line). Notice how Walmart's relative performance goes...

SpyMasterTrades Updated 

Burlington (BURL) found support on the monthly cloud. With just 3 trading days left in the month, there's little chance the candle will pierce the cloud. Monthly Stoch RSI highly suggests this is a major bottom. Monthly Fibonacci also validates the potential bottom. Not financial advice.

SpyMasterTrades Updated 

This is an update to my original post (see below). This recommendation is not for day traders, but for long-term investors, especially dividend investors. VFC has just tagged its yearly basis line on the Bollinger Band. This means that VFC has fully corrected to its mean on the yearly chart. This is an incredibly rare buying opportunity. It is quite likely that...

SpyMasterTrades Updated 

In this post, I will attempt to analyze where the market currently stands, and present both a strong bull case and a strong bear case. Bull case: First, the chart: The chart above shows the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) on a 4h timeframe. The yellow and orange lines are exponential moving averages that represent the MA Exp Ribbon. As noted in a prior post, the MA Exp Ribbon...