SviCapital

SviCapital

Gap ups/downs are a strategy used to overcome stubborn levels. The most recent contract rollover is no exception. Opening way above the inflection level guaranteed a bullish session for the NFP day (12/8). The market is positioned for an upside continuation. We may still see some consolidation in the upper part of the channel, representing a clear bull flag...

SviCapital

Am I bullish or bearish while looking at this daily chart? The answer is neither. A lot had happened this past week: contract rollover, CPI, PPI, quadruple witching. It seems like trading was a mess and chaotic. Many gurus preached on FinTwit to stay away from the market and preserve the capital. I do see a value in those warnings. Especially, for those who are...

SviCapital

To start off - no changes since the last post. A short week did not do much. However, this week is a start of the rollover to December contract. The adjustment is big and that put the price above the critical level 400. It feels like cheating to fool the machines to push higher. Let's see if the bluff is called :) The levels to watch remain the same - I'm...

SviCapital

In the most recent action the price has managed to get back into the upside channel. Whether there is a real demand or just lack of supply remains to be seen. As of now the price has retested the 61.8% retracement of the bearish swing and failed to accept that level on first test. My focus is on the next level below the 50%: if it holds we may see the upside...

SviCapital

A volatile week but no structural changes, or changes in the directionality. It seems the path to downside has been painted. But when it comes to the market nothing is guaranteed. One needs to think from the change or no change of current context. As of now, the H&S remain broken, the upside channel is broken. Nevertheless, my scenario 1 is a horizontal...

SviCapital

As of now, a technical breach of the upside channel and the H&S neckline. It seems the price is trending lower to tag the quarterly pivot. I anticipate a bounce to back test the broken structure. Usually, structural changes are back tested multiple time before the loosing side gives up and let the continuation to proceed. The last point of demand, June...

SviCapital

Backtest of the broken balance, a confirmed Head and off to the Neckline - is the current theme for the market action. The Right shoulder of the projected H&S is being formed. Market is searching for the shoulder bottom. It may reach the lower edge of the channel, confluence with a yearly inflection level. I don't expect a breach of the Neckline soon. My...

SviCapital

The week has started from a bullish retracement. From a technical perspective we see a back test of the channel mid and eventually a back test of the broken multi-day balance. The sentiment remains bearish. A retest of the previous session high would be a warning sign for the shorts. My expectation is to see a holding pattern ahead of the inflation data. Being...

SviCapital

A sign of cracking the structure. A multi day consolidation area breach. Is this the beginning of a potential H&S right shoulder formation or a fake out that may lead to a return to the mid and top of the consolidation area? 2 mega tech companies are reporting after hours, the NFP is tomorrow. These events may help to answer that question. Wait and see for...

SviCapital

Multi day consolidation is begging for a resolution. Old buyers hold and not willing to sell hoping the price will get to all time high. New buyers are hoping for a decent pullback. This situation leads to a limbo. But the market can't operate in that mode. The resolution is coming. AAPL and AMZN are reporting this week. This is could be a moving event. The NFP...

SviCapital

A pullback to retest the breakout of the multi-day consolidation is coming. This is an important area to watch. A potential outcome is to resume the upside move or retest the bottom of the consolidation and start to form the right shoulder of H&S. I anticipate to see a reaction first. A strong move down side would suggest the H&S scenario. The sentiment remains...

SviCapital

A downside move yesterday looks like the beginning of something big. It might be. But that would be a pure speculation. Larger TF (weekly, monthly) charts show a strong bullish sentiment. There is a rebalancing of the NASDAQ going on to reduce the impact of the magnificent seven mega tech companies. The new distribution will be announced today after the bell. It...

SviCapital

Last session has retested monthly R1 confluence with the upper edge of the channel. Initial reaction, profit taking. This is all normal and supported by technical analysis. In my view, this is an objective way to look at the market action and remain on the right side of the chart. As the title suggests, the market needs a reason to sell which is a reverse of the...

SviCapital

Technical analysis is hardly objective, every trader sees his/her brain imagination result. We can't see the future, period! I often entertain different ideas for a mental gymnastic only. Full disclosure, as a day trader, I don't really care where the market would go. I tag along with a short term sentiment. Anyway, while looking at this daily chart and...

SviCapital

The price is approaching a cluster of inflection levels: monthly and yearly R1. I anticipate some kinda of a reaction. A REACTION IS NOT A REVERSAL. Short term traders can take advantage of that by playing both side. 6/4/23

SviCapital

4 Weeks of consolidation within a bull flag formation. The bull flag pattern default outcome is a new leg up. A breakout may unleash enough energy to reach the resistance marked on the chart. A failure to put a new leg up is the pattern failure that opens the door to retest the bull' flag pole origin. The market needs a catalyst to resolve the flag. High odds...

SviCapital

The market is in the process of establishing a short term bottom, which is part of the bear flag formation pattern . Once the low edge of the flag is set - expect and automatic rally to set the top of the bear flag. Make no mistake this is not a reversal. The action often referred as a relief rally. Once the top is set expect a consolidation within the flag....

SviCapital

Here we are again. Consolidation within the right shoulder. An attempt to break the H&S pattern has failed. It increases the odds for the buy side to go after the ATH. However, this week is the FOMC - the mother of all events. It is impossible to predict the market reaction. What comes to rescue is the trusted technique: acceptance/rejection of the inflection...