Taguspt

Taguspt

based on my Fib extension analysis, the breakout from Natgas from a key level will lead to futher extend the leg down, potentially towards 1.73 level. As I am playing this as part of the August Leap competition I will play conservatively my TP just as I usually do and place on the next support level at 1.82. Just wonder if I can add to my position in the...

Taguspt Updated 

Historical price action analysis indicates, at least since september 2023 that there is a high likelihood od of a price rebound from current levels to at least 570. My first position is in, will analyse how price unfolds from current levels and eventually reinforce. A drop below 520 cancels my reading and so will close any positions open.

Taguspt Updated 

Not much more to describe , pure price-action move based on the sideways movement of the oil price since mid-june. Cannot see yet any significant price-action based signal of trend confirmation either up or down, but it is possible we are seeing the formation of a head and shoulders, as well as lower highs and lower lows as this bulls seems to be fighting the...

Taguspt Updated 

using my Fib retracement strategy measuring the 1.27 and 1.38 extension after a significant U or V shaped price pattern, if price closes below the the baseline, there is a very large possibility (historically tested in many instruments) that price hits 1.27 and perhaps 1.38 See particularly the 4H chart for clarity here.

Taguspt

Silver closed above a significant resistance around 24.52. Everytime it did this on the way up since July 2020 it hit the 26.20 region (see red circles in the weekly chart), except in one instance in Nov 2021 when it went up to the 25.40 area and came back down again (see red arrow on the weekly chart and green horizontal line drawn from that level). However,...

Taguspt Updated 

EURCHF just hit the support line of a triangle coming from the Oct 2022 and May 2023 lows, this is also a confluence support level with lows from Jul 2022 and Nov 2022. Probilities are on the side of a reaction to the upside but will only be confirmed with proce action in the next few hours. Just opened a small long position. If price holds and forms an...

Taguspt

After a successful trade long with the break from a wedge pattern at the end of last week, I'm waiting for the price to provide a convincing pattern to get in. At the moment, the trend is up. The channel is intact and seems to be confirmed by price action. So, will look for opportunities to go long. Cutting a long story short, the price is in consolidation and...

Taguspt

As we move deeper into the second semester, several JPY pairs are most likely changing trends, for a variety of reasons. Of course, volatility and news will impact along the way, and I am expecitng to see a lot of consolidation at some point. But for now, price action is telling me AUDJPY just broke an important support trendline and due to the uncertainty in...

Taguspt

There seems to be an inflexion point in the long-term trend upwards of several pairs with JPY and GBPJPY is one offering the biggest ATR and potential to catch a part of that inflexion. It has risen very strongly so far but is steadfastly breaking all intermediary support levels on the way down. Plus, today's claimant count and unemployment rate numbers just...

Taguspt Updated 

Simple rationale for this one: after making a false break above a strong weekly resistance level that goes back 2022, there is a strong probability that price will react and go down to at least the 1.906 level, which is where most of the volume along the last few days was concentrated.

Taguspt Updated 

Oil (WTIUSD) has yesterday broken (orange arrow a wedge pattern that started shaping on the beginning of May. Then it went back in the wedge briefly on the market reaction to the news that the FED will keep raising rates, but that is not really a novelty and, in parallel, there were guarantees from the several big OPEC producers that they will what is necessary...

Taguspt Updated 

Just so that you know how I am navigating this trade on CHFJPY: my thesis that price will rebound south from current levels is still intact. Parallel channel is still in play and I am even add to my short position if price hits top of channel and presents beaarish price action. There is a set of small triangles within the channel, they are just intermediate...

Taguspt

EURNZD had a 4 day streak of downward tendency but it hit a major support level. It has closed below a long standing trend line coming from May on the daily (and lower time frames of course - orange trend line) but I am not convinced it will close below it on the weekly. In fact, if this is a false break on the weekly, it will then potentially go up quite...

Taguspt

You can clearly see it better in the daily chart. Price is fast approaching neckline which was a support and resistance line I had long put there before I noticed this pattern. It's not my style to risk a trade betting on the price going down to the neckline, but it seems pretty clean so... will give it a second thought. I will, however, short the pair if it...

Taguspt

As an update to my previously published idea on the short-term bear case for CHFJPY, if we now focus on the 1H time frame we can see that price is forming a nice bear flag. This allows us to follow quite well price action and wait for a close below resistance (I will be more confident with a close on the 4H or daily though). If this happens, I will add to my...

Taguspt

This is not the most usual trade I make but I noticed along the years that price tends to hit the 1.27 level of Fib ezxtension and retrace to the baseline 1. I had calculated the fib extension last week and waited for the price to confirm reading through price-action. It has. Based on backtesting, it has an 80% history of retracement to baseline levels at...

Taguspt Updated 

Gold had a very strong reaction to the 1900 area and is sitting just below 1910. In the 1H timeframe it may be developing a head and shoulders pattern. If confirmed, it will provide a good move up to at least 1920 again and eventually much higher.

Taguspt Updated 

So far GBPNZD has kept steadily above 2.0730 region. I just opened a small long position aiming at the 2.12 area for a short-term trade, with tight SL just below support at 2.071 and a RR ration above 5. The 2.12 TP is well below the next main weekly resistance level and also below a measure target equivalent to the 2.85% ranging from the bottom to the top of...