TanukiTrade

TanukiTrade Updated 

Many of you — and yes, I see you in my DMs 😄 — are trading PLTR, whether using LEAPS, wheeling, or covered calls. I took a closer look. And guess what? 📈 After a strong move higher, PLTR was rejected right at the $143 call wall — pretty much all cumulative expiries cluster resistance there Using the GEX Profile indicator, scanning all expirations: After a...

TanukiTrade Updated 

🧠 SPX Weekly Outlook — Gamma Breakout + Short Week Setup The bulls finally broke through after weeks of painful grinding — and they did so with force. 📈 Thursday & Friday brought a textbook gamma squeeze as SPX sliced through the long-standing 6100 call wall , triggering sharp upside acceleration. We are now firmly in positive Net GEX territory. 🔺 Entire...

TanukiTrade Updated 

📊 Weekly GEX Map (SPX) This week’s GEX profile looks nearly identical to last week: Positive bias above 6020 up to 6100 But a sticky chop zone remains from 5975 to 6020 Below 5950? That’s where things get interesting… ⚠️ What Happens If 5950 Fails? In that case - welcome to negative gamma territory: Delta becomes unstable → fast, erratic moves ...

TanukiTrade Updated 

Last week’s outlook played out quite well — as anticipated, SPX hit the 6000 level, closing exactly there on Friday. This was the realistic target we highlighted in last week's idea. 🔭 SPX: The Bigger Outlook It's difficult to say whether the rising SPX trend will continue. We're still in the "90-day agreement period" set by the administration, and so far, the...

TanukiTrade Updated 

Last week, TSLA dropped hard, likely due to political tensions. Let’s not forget — just a month ago, their EVs were showcased at the White House entrance... In the span of 30 hours, TSLA fell -22% (see red line below), while SPX barely reacted. Why? Because both realized and implied volatility dropped — remember VIX is around 17/18. This sharp TSLA drop...

TanukiTrade Updated 

The biggest event last week was undoubtedly the court ruling involving Trump. The market responded with optimism, and on Thursday premarket, SPX surged toward the 6000 level — only to get instantly rejected. That strong rejection suggests this is a firm resistance zone. From the GEX expiry matrix, it's clear that the market is hedging upward for this week, but...

TanukiTrade Updated 

⚠️ Unbalanced GEX & Institutional Hedging – A Closer Look I haven’t seen such an asymmetric GEX setup in quite a while — and it’s definitely not a pretty one 😬. The current profile suggests a highly skewed positioning in the market: 📍 Massive upside expectation: It feels like the market is almost exclusively preparing for a move toward 6000. 🛑 Limited downside...

TanukiTrade Updated 

NVDA reports earnings this Wednesday, and it’s a big deal. A major move could impact both the indexes and broader tech sector. The OTM 16 delta curve essentially overlaps with both the GEX profile and the expected probability zone — signaling strong confluence. 📈 Rising IV with falling call skew: Volatility is rising into earnings, while the call skew is...

TanukiTrade Updated 

🔍 IF/THEN QUICK GAMMA PLAYBOOK IF > 5825 THEN path to 5900 → stall/profit-taking likely IF > 5900 THEN path to first 5950, then 6000 → gamma squeeze extension zone IF < 5825 THEN path to 5700 → test of transition zone support Chop Zone: — re-entry = short-term balance/testing zone IF < 5700 THEN path to 5500 → gamma flush / dealer unwind risk 🧭 ...

TanukiTrade Updated 

🔮 What-If Scenarios for This Week – Based on GEX Structure until Firday Last week’s market momentum pushed the S&P 500 up by almost 3%, effectively erasing the price gap left behind on Liberation Day. The index also strung together nine straight days of gains—something we haven’t seen since late 2004. Meanwhile, implied volatility dropped significantly, with...

TanukiTrade Updated 

DETAILED IMAGE: Here’s what the charts and indicators are showing right now until Friday. We are approaching a key breakout zone. 🐂 🟢 IF the market breaks above the white bearish daily trendline, the next bullish target could be between 5515–5680. 🟦 ⚖️ The chop area is between 5435–5515. Expect more back-and-forth moves here if the breakout fails. 🐻🔴 Watch...

TanukiTrade

Contextual Thinking: Yesterday’s sharp drop was fully bought back — for now. We're currently at a call resistance level, so the down move may continue today. Gameplay: Below 5205, I lean towards being cautious or outright bearish. A hypothetical selloff could intensify below 5170 (Gamma Flip level). I'm definitely not targeting below 5100, but based on the...

TanukiTrade Updated 

🔶 Short- and longer-term perspective in a high IV, negative GEX environment 🔶 KEY LEVELS & RANGES Spot: 221 Gamma Flip / Transition: around 250 (the turquoise zone on the chart) – This zone typically marks a “power shift.” If price decisively breaks above 250 and holds, market makers’ gamma positioning could flip from neutral/negative to positive. ...

TanukiTrade Updated 

Wow, where to begin? We’ve just come through a week that even the most thorough analysts found surprising. Last Friday’s brutal sell-off triggered such a massive margin call rally that even the hedge funds were forced to exit gold—which is usually considered a safe haven—on Friday. The VIX is at a historic high — no joke. We last saw levels like this during...

TanukiTrade Updated 

You can see that every expiry has shifted into a stronger bullish stance heading into Friday, with GEX exposure moving upward across the board—though total net GEX is still in negative territory, while net DEX (delta exposure) is positive. This combination points toward a likely near-term rebound this week, which makes sense after testing the 5600 range last...

TanukiTrade Updated 

Overall Sentiment: Currently, there’s a positive GEX sentiment, suggesting an optimistic start to the week following Friday’s bounce. However, the key Call resistance appears at 600, and it may not break on the first attempt. If optimism remains strong, there’s a chance SPY 0.09%↑ could still push above that zone after some initial back-and-forth. 🟢Upside...

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NVDA Earnings Announcement 🔥 NVIDIA reports earnings today, after market close, and this release could create significant movement. Let’s dive right into the charts and see what the technicals are telling us! With earnings so close, I typically look only at the nearest expiration, which in this case is 02/28 (Friday). The implied move (IV) is around 10%, or...

TanukiTrade Updated 

The SPX opened with a huge gap-down in both the futures and CFD markets. After the previous two Fridays, there was a massive gap-down in the premarket each time. Everyone was expecting the same scenario again, but it seems the market quickly recovered from the put support at the 6000 level, and we are now steadily moving toward the positive GEX range. Although we...