I haven't seen many people posting about this which surprises me. Maybe everyone is waiting for BTC to touch that log resistance line. Anyways, ETH has been recovering quite a bit faster than BTC (probably since it feel quite a bit further) and is in the process of breaking out of a long-term bear trend. I'd like to see a daily close above the resistance but...
As far as I am concerned, the larger bear trend is still intact. If we are able to break the major bear resistance (blue line) that would be a good first indicator, but ideally I would like to break ~$9,400 (.618 fib and also would make a new higher high). Don't get swept up in the high doses of hopium going around. Be realistic with your trades and understand...
Every trader has their own indicator preferences and forms a trading system based on those preferences. One of my absolute favorites is looking at historic horizontal resistance. Looking just at this recent fall in the 15 min. timeframe, the small consolidations have occurred perfectly on historic resistance/support zones. These are good areas to lock in profit...
The fractals aren't perfect, and fractals don't always play out, but if the current fractal (yellow box) plays out like the last, we are in for a ~12% drop to around the old support line of the falling wedge. I hope this is not the case but be prepared. Even if the fractal plays out, we may find enough support at a double bottom @ $7,240.
I have seen a few charts floating around twitter similar to mine. The latest BTC chop, without any horizontal resistance, would be impossible to trade. Looking at the 3 rectangles I have drawn, you can see that the middle rectangle (blue) is a bear/bull line. We just did a solid bounce/retest off of the bottom of the lower box. I opened a heavy long (50x lol) at...
If you are able to master just the basics of TA (see chart), trading the simple formations, trend lines, etc. would have done you well during this bear run. Now, it looks like BTC broke up (quickly) to the top of the descending wedge. If BTC cannot break through, I predict it going back down to the bottom of the wedge to regain bullish momentum for a true breakout.
So far my prediction is holding up. If BTC can hold this last support for the descending wedge, it will likely stop the downfall for the time being until we hit the major bearish resistance line. If BTC falls below the descending wedge, think about shorting it until we reach a double bottom with the Feb. 6 low.
ADA looks like most alts. I'd stay out of it until at least .000018 (unless market conditions change) and even then make sure you have a tight stop in case that support doesn't hold.
ICX will likely head down as long as BTC is the star of the show. Support lines are in pink. Be aware that there is money to be made in ICX even though bears are in control. Historically, at each of the supports that did not hold, there was a small pump.
TLDR: Buy supports with a tight stop and sell when it hits the large bear trend line.
There is a bullish divergence on the RSI but the overall bear trend is still intact. A possible counter-trend trade is to long at the resistance/fib line but make sure to keep a tight stop in case we head back down in the descending wedge to around $7,400 - $7,600.
