TheForexMessiah

TheForexMessiah

Price Target - 1.31 GBP Interest Rate Adjusted for Inflation - 3.25% USD Interest Rate Adjusted for Inflation - 2.50% GBP's strength over the USD is mainly due to strong interest rates from the Bank of England along with the Federal Reserve signalling a rate cut due to lower inflation which will further weaken the dollar. The Bank of England currently has no...

TheForexMessiah

EURUSD continues to trade in range bound price action. June 2024's US inflation dropped from 3.3% to 3.0% which is signalling that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the near future. We will find out if this is the case on 31 July 2024. If the Fed cuts rates, expect the USD to weaken which will allow for the EURUSD to gain some short - mid term...

TheForexMessiah

11 July sees the release of the Consumer Price Index data and Unemployment Claims There are 3 types of CPI: Core CPI m/m (goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy) CPI m/m (goods and services purchased by consumers) CPI y/y This week's forecasts by analysts: Core CPI m/m: 0.2% CPI m/m: 0.1% CPI y/y: 3.1% For DXY to move higher we...

TheForexMessiah

AUDJPY is currently my favourite pair to trade due to the Australian Dollar's strength during the summer commodities season, coupled with the Japanese Yen's recent losses. This pair is due to see further gains. The following is my analysis on why I'm bullish on this pair: AUD strength during commodities season - Over 20% of Australia's exports are commodities....

TheForexMessiah

EURUSD has been on a rally this past week whilst DXY has seen losses. This week's US Non Farm Payroll did come out positive. However the US Unemployment Rate missed its target by 0.1. On Thursday 11 July we are expecting: Core CPI m/m CPI m/m CPI y/y Unemployment Claims If the data for next week comes out strong, we can see EURUSD decline. Keep in...

TheForexMessiah

EURUSD has been on a rally this past week whilst DXY has seen losses. This week's US Non Farm Payroll did come out positive. However the US Unemployment Rate missed its target by 0.1. On Thursday 11 July we are expecting: Core CPI m/m CPI m/m CPI y/y Unemployment Claims If the data for next week comes out strong, we can see EURUSD decline. Interest...

TheForexMessiah

With a tight interest rate differential and range bound price action, the direction on this pair can be tough to predict. So far GBP interest rates are higher than that of the USD so GBP strength remains until the Bank of England cuts rates which can happen in August this year. Short term wise, we can use next week's US economic data to see where prices go next.

TheForexMessiah

USDJPY is set up to continue its gains for up until at least mid 2025. This is based on the following: Wide interest rate differential Bank of Japan artificially inflating the value of the Yen Interest rates: US Real Interest Rate: 5.5% (Cash Rate) - 3.3% (Inflation Rate) = 2.2% Japan Real Interest Rate: 0.1% (Cash Rate) - 2.8% (Inflation Rate) = -2.7%...

TheForexMessiah

Tomorrow we are expecting the US Non Farm Payrolls. This can either fuel USDJPY gains up to 163.00 or we could see a decline to 160.00 and below. I currently have longs from 161.212.

TheForexMessiah

Local support @ 2335.00 Local resistance @ 2365.00 Next week we also have US CPI and PPI data. Keep an eye on the current middle east conflict as any major escalations can cause Gold to rally.

TheForexMessiah

Oil has reached the resistance trend line and shown rejection at 82.35. We can expect price to move down towards support over the next few weeks if we see prices stabilise below 80.00

TheForexMessiah

My trade thesis on this pair: Price has been consolidating in this triangle pattern for over 6 weeks now. Despite how strong the USD is, this pair has struggled to break down. This is mainly due to strong commodity prices. Commodities make up over 22% of Australia's exports. Historically, the S&P Commodities Index has been in line with the price of the AXY...

TheForexMessiah

The price of AUDUSD is pegged to commodities. You can see this more clearly on the weekly or monthly time frame by adding "SPGSCI" to your chart to compare prices. Provided that the prices of commodities drops over the next few weeks, we will see AUDUSD move lower. Current Interest Rates: US Real Interest Rate: 5.5% (Cash Rate) - 3.3% (Inflation Rate) =...

TheForexMessiah

From a fundamental analysis perspective with interest rates, I have a sell bias on EURUSD. However, with the economic numbers coming out over the next week, I expect a lot of volatility as well as possibly a short term retracement before continuing down. Even if the US economic data comes out weaker than expected, gains on this pair are very limited.

TheForexMessiah

We could see BTC decline by 40% or more over the next few months before the next bull run starts. If you are holding positions long term then this is nothing to worry about as we have previously seen BTC decline by over 70% in the past.

TheForexMessiah

The US dollar is strengthening across the board and as a result we will see the price of gold facing downwards pressure. Over the next week we have Non Farm Payroll, Unemployment, Manufacturing, and Earnings numbers. If data comes out strong we can expect Gold to maintain its bearish price action. Selling pressure continues below 2368.62 as this is the...

TheForexMessiah

The Bank of England is reporting lower inflation and is now sitting at 2% whilst Canada's inflation is still rising. Over the medium to long term, the GBP will outperform the CAD. For now expect a retracement before continuing the uptrend.

TheForexMessiah

The price of AUDUSD is pegged to commodities. You can see this more clearly on the weekly or monthly time frame by adding "SPGSCI" to your chart to compare prices. Provided that the prices of commodities drops over the next few weeks, we will see AUDUSD move lower. Current Interest Rates: US Real Interest Rate: 5.5% (Cash Rate) - 3.3% (Inflation Rate) =...