TheFudmeister

TheFudmeister

Bulls peaked out at 163.20 and currently correcting back to session low. We look forward to seeing it bounce off role reversal support at 162.30.

TheFudmeister

UK CPI provided the boost for the bulls to break above 162.20. From this point on, we will most likely see an uptrend to 164.00 with a resistance at 163.00. How do we trade? The current nearest support is the role reversal support at 162.20. Can price go lower than 162.20? The possibility will always be there. FOMC Policy Statement will be in focus later...

TheFudmeister

Yesterday's price action confirms a follow through move of the bulls with a higher high, lower high marking, plus a white candle. Today, they will be test in several fronts. Will bulls be able to break above 162 and trend to 164? Will bulls be able to protect key levels - previous day's low, 50% and 61.8% retrace? Will bulls be there at extreme support of...

TheFudmeister

Bulls held ground yesterday by staying above 161. Price took a corrective move in today's Asian Session but it has been dry. Price is currently trying to push back above 161.00. In the dailies, bearishness is unclear with bulls continuing to reject any bearish bid by pushing above 61.8% retracement back to daily highs.  This tells us the GBPJPY will continue to...

TheFudmeister

Bears were relentless today, pounding GBPJPY down to 159.00. Bulls came out since and has recovered 50% of today's move. This is more or less bargain for shorters. Cut is above 160.80. 161.75 can be re-entry to short.

TheFudmeister

Bulls have maintained their position at 160.00 last Friday. This marked a higher low in the dailies with a neutral high. Because the overall movement for the past 3 trading days is bearish, my main bias is still a bearish with possible sideways movement. This morning, the bulls tried following through last Friday's move only to be met with bears at 161.60. For...

TheFudmeister

Yesterday we saw comfort from ECB indicating that they have the set of tools to deal with whatever financial instability that may come. Market went bullish for the rest of the trading day. However, we have to still see what FED has to say and not until they come out with their statements, market may still remain bearish. Technically, my main bias remains...

TheFudmeister

Bulls have indeed made their mark by breaking beyond 163 and hitting 164. We see a higher high and higher low pattern in the dailies. The Main Bias is to go long around the low side of yesterday's price action that is around 161.80 to 162. This is about 50% retracement (bargain) of the bullish leg. The Immediate Bias is to go against the trend by shorting...

TheFudmeister

With President Biden coming out saying everything will be fine, the bulls took over GBPJPY from 160 to 162.80, for a moment breaking the 61.8% retracement of the main leg (check mark). Now, how do we assess the trends? As far as the main leg (check mark) is concerned, the one that started from last Friday, bearishness is still intact as long as bulls don't break...

TheFudmeister

Bears have been relentlessly selling off GBPJPY breaking significant support levels. In fact, all JPY pairs are down signifying a flight to safety mode by traders and investors. This could be classified as a black swan event - US Financial Crisis 2023? I wasn't able to take any short positions. I am waiting for a good retrace to get in. By marking the last...

TheFudmeister

The case of a bearish GBPJPY is now confirmed with the break of today's low of 161.40. Bulls tried to break above 163.00 towards the start of London Session, but failed. I marked the double yellow dot. This area is line in the sand to determine if last Friday's move is still supported by the bears. I was able to take out my position with almost 40-pips gain.

TheFudmeister

We saw a dip down to 161.40 this morning but bulls came back to push price up to 163.05. 163.15 is the line in the sand for the bears to protect based on last Friday's NFP leg down. A break of 163.15 will prove that bulls dominate the move. I bought a half-size portion at 162.25 because we are currently at the low-side of the range. I'd take a hit if it...

TheFudmeister

US Session yesterday provided a reason for the bears sell off GBPJPY. Price almost hit Thursday’s low but eventually climbed back up towards the close. Before the US Session we saw the inherent weakness of JPY as supported by the BOJ’s usual monetary policy and the strength of GBP from the positive GDP data that came out of UK. All of these was invalidated when...

TheFudmeister

UK's GDP release came with enough selling pressure for us to get a chance to get in the trend. I was able to get in at 162.85. That huge move an hour after came perfectly for a take profit at 163.85. Could this give way to a second round trade later post-NFP at 930pm (GMT+8)? Plotting the fibs, a bargain for entry seems to be around 162.62 to 163.00. We...

TheFudmeister

Yesterday's price action showed us resilience on Sterling Pound. BOJ's monetary policy announcement this morning pushed price further to break yesterday's high. Essentially, we are seeing the end of its drop in the near-term. Here I marked to fibonacci retracement tool. First is the leg from yesterday to today's high of 163.20. Second is the leg from today's...

TheFudmeister

The bulls marked support at around 161.60 today, just a tad bit away from yesterday's low. Price rallied back up to 162.15 and I took measly profits ahead of that. Bears are trying to get hold of the trend downward. Personally, I am leaving the table because I don't see a setup worth risking. It seems that the most prudent action is to just wait and see how...

TheFudmeister

The market proceeded to break 162 yesterday but bulls managed to find support somewhere at 161.70. I was able to get out at 162.05, just before the bulls pushed price up to 162.80. There were no follow-through move during Asian session but instead, bears dominated at open and bulls tried supporting at 162.10, the 61.8% retracement support of the last bullish leg...

TheFudmeister

The bulls made a surprise comeback at 4pm today (GMT+8) where they marked a support at 162.40 and a high of about 162.97. My positions were all stopped out with minimal loss. The price action was fairly volatile and it also marked the 61.8% retracement of the Asian Session's bullish leg. Because there were no follow through move after 4pm, I have reengaged my...