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Thesis - The Road to $9,000: How Gold’s 2024 RSI Breakout Signals a New Supercycle Executive Summary In January 2024, gold's quarterly RSI broke decisively above the 70 level — a rare technical event that historically marks the beginning of powerful, long-duration uptrends. This breakout echoes a similar RSI move in April 2005 that preceded a near eight-year...

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BTCUSD | Volatility Compression Meets Macro Catalyst: Options & Technical Thesis Chart: BTC/USD 1M (BITSTAMP) Bitcoin is currently consolidating below all-time highs after touching the $95K level. The monthly candle structure shows the first significant pause in momentum, with price now holding around the $82,000–$84,000 range. This area represents a confluence of...

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Stitched for a Breakout: A DOTM Conexity Thesis on PVH Ahead of Earnings Thesis Overview PVH Corp. (NYSE: PVH) presents a compelling high-convexity options play as it approaches a long-term ascending support line ahead of its Q4 earnings release on March 31, 2025. With the stock trading at $64.34, technical indicators suggest a potential inflection point — and...

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NVDA Bearish Options Thesis — “AI’s Reality Check” A $500 Bet Against Hype, Headwinds, and a Tired Rally Underlying: NVIDIA (NVDA) Current Price: $109.67 Strategy: Buy 5x $90 PUTs expiring May 2, 2025 @ $1.00 Total Cost (Risk): $500 Breakeven: $89.00 Max Value at Expiry: $45,000 (if NVDA → $0) Target Zone: $85–$95 Risk/Reward Profile: Asymmetric 1:9+ 🧠 Thesis...

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TSLA bearish play thesis focused on buying 2 contracts of the $190 PUT (May 2, 2025) at $3.31 each. This version scales up all profit/loss values and ROI calculations to reflect a 2-contract position (i.e., 200 shares total). 🧠 TSLA Bearish Earnings Thesis – 2 Contract Play Earnings Date: April 28, 2025 Option Expiration: May 2, 2025 Strategy: Buy 2x TSLA $190...

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Yo traders - Let’s map out a convexity-based trade scenario using LOAR stock and the April 17, 2025 $75 Call option — currently trading at $1.00, with the stock at $65.97 and only 18 days to expiry. 🔍 Step-by-Step Breakdown: 🧠 1. Basic Structure You’re buying the LOAR Apr17 $75 call at $1.00. This is a deep OTM bet (~13.7% above current price). You’re betting...

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Technically, wheat has seen 4 consecutive sessions of strength. This is in the face of a stronger dollar and recessionary fears, which in theory should sap sentiment and forward demand dynamics. Wheat is approaching key level of resistance at 810. This is a previous POC, that has proved difficult to breach. Though fundamentally wheat should stay bid, considering...

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retracement to predictable levels. Resumption of upward attempt point of control.

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retracement to predictable levels. Resumption of upward attempt point of control.

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Point of control breached - further upside likely after sellers exhausted and short covering commencing.

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Notice how POC testing is readily rejected each time and the resumption of the overall trend prevails like clockwork. This is the value of Price control and knowing where volume and liquidity in the market exists. Another hotly contested Point of Control that adhered perfectly the volume led price action of the market participants. At his stage, picking an entry...

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This is still a highly resisted area. Despite the up moves, we need to see a clean break before bullishness is confirmed. We are seeing low volume - that's fine, the volume can come later. First and foremost, the price action needs to move about the PoC You need only look at the previous <month price action to see that we are literally in a zone of contention....