TheLazyBrother

TheLazyBrother

10/2 curve has inverted for the fourth time in the last 35 years. There was a brief inversion in 2019, which was only marginal and not marked on the chart, but its consequences do not contradict the following conlcusion to the least. Every time, without exception, 10/2 inversion meant substantially lower 10Y rates (bond bull market) for a prolonged period of...

TheLazyBrother

NDX bubble topped with a truncation, at least it seems like the best interpretation to me. I have put it forward as "just an idea" a few months ago, but it was never negated, on the contrary. Presented count suggests that we are in the eye of the storm, and that we will be crashing in the 3rd wave pretty soon.

TheLazyBrother

There was an epic rally in energy. However, NG futures are clearly showing that momentum is waning, as RSI and MACD are showing divergence against the price. Does it mean go short? Not necessarily, but if you are long, it might be wise to take some or all of your profits off the table.

TheLazyBrother

The rally can be counted as an impulse, although DJI did not make a new realtive high in wave 5 (SPX did), so some prudence is required. If we accept the idea of a five wave rally, we should try to count the correction. And indeed, succesive abc corrections seem to be forming off the high, so we need to be patient and wait for the opportunity to go long, as we...

TheLazyBrother

At this point we can count a clear corrective three wave pattern in the DOW, which has completed , and the market already reversed. Note the MACD crossover on daily chart. This portends, as consequence, ATH in 3-6 month period. Be prudent though, as NDX has different structure which does not imply ATH at all. Markets will be pushed to the upside by lower...

TheLazyBrother

DJI downdraft from March seems clearly corrective, as it is not possible to count it as a five waves down, which does not necessarily apply to NDX as well. Rally off the lows could very well be the initial impulse up which means that next minor sell off should be bought. Such a conlusion is also supported by breath numbers.

TheLazyBrother

There are many indications that interest rates are reversing course, across the yield curve. It seems that the apetite for higher rates is finally saturated. We can conclude that from the fact that reverse relationship with equities is reestablished. So, if the rates go up, stocks go down, but as opposed to some weeks ago, now rates immediatelly go back down when...

TheLazyBrother

ZT was banging its head against cyan resistance area, but it seems it is finally breaking out. I would conlcude that FED tightening cycle is over, probably not actual raising of fed funds rate, but hawkish speek.

TheLazyBrother

Long bond futures have broken three downward sloping trendlines establishing higher lows, and at the same time are consolidating in a narrow range just above the purple SMA which kept lid on prices since mid March when the last leg down started. Note that three SMA's of different degrees are in bullish position, i.e. lower time frame SMA is above higher time frame...

TheLazyBrother

Stocks are selling off, and it looks like there's more to come. Interestingly, "flight to safety" was non-existant so far. Market crash, and a recession that follows are profoundly deflationary events. Consequently, bonds should rally. And with agood reason: 3% guaranteed for 20+ years more and more looks like not such a bad proposition. Moreover, it seems that...

TheLazyBrother

H&S pattern is completed, neckline broken - interest rates are going down. No doubt the rise has created havoc in the economy, stocks are braking, and Central banks will be soon coming to rescue.

TheLazyBrother

Five waves off the bottom could signal the end of the sell off in German 10Y bonds. Now we need to see an a-b-c correction to confirm that the bottom is in.

TheLazyBrother

NDX broke support this morning, but quickly reversed. It seems it is ready to rally in wave c to complete larger wave 2, and then resume its slide.

TheLazyBrother

GBPJPY has completed a downward impulse, correction to 161.50- 162.00 level to follow.

TheLazyBrother

Dax completed an impulse to the downside, correction to follow. 13920 should be hard to break, plan to go short at that level.

TheLazyBrother

Cold shower after yesterday's rally, on horrible breath. Is it the signature of the third wave down?

TheLazyBrother

Five year notes show clear divergence against momentum indicators, bottom might be in place.

TheLazyBrother

No respite for the markets, sinking like the stone.