TheLazyBrother

TheLazyBrother

If EURUSD does complete H&S pattern it would bring at least medium term reversal in trend. With FED chairmain's Christmass gift to the stock market and hint at lower rates then expected, shouldn't take to long.

TheLazyBrother Updated 

AUDUSD still hovers in no man's land, it seems. Breaking 0.7200 would open the floodgates, but break of 0.7250 on the upside would tilt the outlook to the bullish side. Since the general trend is down, and no up impulse developed, on whatever degree of trend, I would favor the short side.

TheLazyBrother

AUDUSD neckline is breaking, we should look for acceleration lower. Low risk trading opportunity.

TheLazyBrother

I am rather undecided when it comes to medium term direction of the dollar. My last call worked well (link below), but prices were held by a=c level around 1.1330 area. Next wave is crucial, and the one after that. If we get a corrective structure, that would hint to prices breaking 1.1330 level, medium term trend should still be down, and 1.1230 level will...

TheLazyBrother

Retailers have been champions of underperformance, slicing through support. As a conclusion, all sectors that are economically sensitive, energy, semis, retailers, homebuilders, are in deep trouble recession is maybe being signaled?

TheLazyBrother

Homebuilders are falling in strait line, imposible to even count. Scarry!

TheLazyBrother

XLE is one of the very weakest sectors, broke recent support.

TheLazyBrother

Banks are holding well recently, compared to overall market, but still impulsing down

TheLazyBrother

Semiconductors are important sector for overall market, clear count

TheLazyBrother

NYSE Composite, clear count

TheLazyBrother

Small stocks have a clear count

TheLazyBrother

Fairly clear count in Value line, a broad index

TheLazyBrother

I find stock market indexes very difficult to read since the top, so I did some digging. First of all, market is very much fractured, sector wise and market cap wise. Smaller stocks and broader indexes have much clearer counts - impulse down is much clearer and easier to count, and I will publish them in separate posts. Some sectors are clearly impulsing down,...

TheLazyBrother

If we leave the general picture aside, and take from it just that the general trend is down, and we zoom in to the hourly chart, we have both ABC structure, and H&S pattern. Market is right on the trend line (neckline), I would press on it as of Monday. Moreover, USD looks bullish across the board, so we have wind in our sails.

TheLazyBrother

I have low confidence in my count past C(circled). First, I am not sure 1(circled) is over, and if it was, I am not sure if 2(circled) is over or not. Pitty, because the trend is clearly down. I would love to see it rally towards the purple SMA, but that is just a fantasy at this point. On a larger scale, this chart is clearly pointing that bear market in...

TheLazyBrother

I have trouble labeling waves, up or down, in GBPUSD. My hypothesis of a c wave up was most likely erroneous, as small degree abc's are developing in succession (not shown). I would rather be inclined to bet on market breaking the recent support.

TheLazyBrother

Minor C is struggling against 114.50 resistance. Also, it is not developing in impulsive manner. Only if we could be able to break it with some certainty into a-b- and c to come, it would became tradable.

TheLazyBrother

We can say with a certain degree of certainty that we are now in minor C wave of intermediate (B), with intermediate (C) to follow. Minor C could travel in many ways, though, and it is difficult to say how far exactly. But it should be monitored from a far (for now!), as (C) will be a sizeable move offering great opportunities.