TheRealPeaches

TheRealPeaches

Treasury's broke significant support earlier in the year. We remain short with a first target of the 102-104 area.

TheRealPeaches Updated 

Last week saw the break of a bear flag. We are now resting on downtrend support. The chart looks heavy at this point. Italian banks have major exposure to Turkey. Also, Italy threatens to drag the EU under. The Italians are not as docile as the Greeks - they do not care for whatever rules Brussels attempts to impose on them. Thus, my next target for capital...

TheRealPeaches

Our Head and Shoulders pattern continues to materialize in EURUSD. Last week was significant in that price was rejected again at trendline support-turned-resistance. Further resistance is placed at moving the moving averages. Only a significant re-capture of the 1.18-1.20 area will alleviate bearishness, but since that is unlikely, down is the path of least...

TheRealPeaches

German Government Bonds continue to languish aimlessly in a down-trending channel. The gradual convergence of the moving averages tells us that the market may be close in time to a decision point. Unless the market confidently closes above this channel, it can be assumed that Bunds are topping out in earnest. The fundamental story behind Bunds is that the rest of...

TheRealPeaches

Dax has returned to within the broad topping pattern seen over 2017-18. While this is not ideal action, the fact that the market broke down in the first place and is held in check by our moving average still provides a bearish posture. Our first target (yellow horizontal line) has been negated for now. Taking out last week's high on a closing basis will...

TheRealPeaches

The primary pattern in USDJPY is the large Symmetrical Triangle, formed from the 2015 highs and 2016 lows. We have since broken to the upside, to form a secondary Ascending Triangle, which is bullish. If price couldn't rally to test the prior highs in the 114 area, my medium-term bias would have been neutral. But the fact that price has rallied to this level...

TheRealPeaches

As expected, the Dow, when compared with the SPX and the NASDAQ to name two, presents the most bullish of the bunch. The recent drop was severe, but no long-term damage has been done. And while the SP500 and NASDAQ closed red last week, the DJIA closed green. This is telling us that though profit-taking has set in, bullish fundamentals underpin this...

TheRealPeaches

Last week, prices were well sold at the 21 EMA. This indicates that the bears still have control. An interesting possibility is that prices could hit a Cradle point formed by a confluence of the Triangle boundaries. This point is also reinforced as the lower boundary of a possible larger channel. This mythical point in space and time could present as very...

TheRealPeaches

First, note how price backed off and failed to touch the higher trendline in August. Next, the market provided another clue, as the next rally showed bearish divergence on the Stoch RSI. Though prices bounced from a fairly critical trendline, the last week as confirmed the down direction as price as sold at the 20EMA. It is fair to assume that more downside...

TheRealPeaches

Having broken out of resistance around the 23000 area and come back below it, the technical picture now looks muddled. For now we can say that we're in a rising wedge, and trend support is currently at the lower boundry.

TheRealPeaches

Charts change. But as the days roll on, EURUSD looks to be forming a Head and Shoulders pattern. The descending neckline implies a fast drop to my first target, the 1.07 area, with a measured move down at 1.03. The volume profile is inconclusive at this point. Time is running out to mount a sustainable rally and overturn the bearish picture, and with EUR...

TheRealPeaches

It now appears that the Dollar is carving out an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern. It is unconfirmed, however. Taking out the recent swing low low at 93.81 would not invalidate the pattern. Conversely, taking out the swing high at 96.98 would imply a neckline break. The ascending neckline, if broken, implies a fast move up within a broad Inverted Symmetrical...

TheRealPeaches

I have been watching the DAX H&S form for a while now. This pattern has now been confirmed with a break and weekly close below the neckline. A descending neckline indicates fundamental weakness and could imply a swift drop. I am short with a first target in the 10,700 area, and my ultimate target under 10,000.

TheRealPeaches

Bitcoin has broken the 2018 descending triangle. Though the sell-off provides an inconclusive picture, bullish indicators are the positive buying volume break and the fact that price has found rising support since June. The stoch RSI is rounding up, but adds nothing. Though it is too early to say if this will result in a sustainable rally, when we take the recent...

TheRealPeaches

The week before last gave us a shooting star/doji. The following week resulted in a pull-back that has everyone scared. For now, we held lower parallel support. However, I'm leaning on the prospect of more downside for now. The markets are telling us something: there is clear concern over the mid-term elections. If Democrats win, I'm sure that would pour water...

TheRealPeaches

The SPXUSD (the perpetual contract of the SP 500) is somewhat of an indicator for domestic US investor sentiment. In comparison, I consider the DJIA to be an indicator of foreign capital flows to the US. The US appears to be triggered by the nomination of a Supreme Court judge, or rather, the slander and innuendo associated with the nomination... and despite all...

TheRealPeaches

In my last commentary I noted that the Euro could bounce. The Dollar has just broken significant support as I write. I have short EURUSD positions remaining, but I'm strongly hedged with a DXY short. I'm also long Gold and Silver, as a counter-trend short Dollar play. I also noted that political confusion concerning Trump could make the US markets 'choppy' -...

TheRealPeaches

The Nikkei has broken out of its multi-month ascending triangle. If resistance at 24.2 zone can be overcome, targets are 24.4 area and 25.8 area.