TheRealPeaches

TheRealPeaches Updated 

The BTCUSD has been incredibly choppy, with no trend to speak of for the past few days. However, a glance at ETHUSD, LTCUSD and XRPUSD tells a different story. The major cryptocurrencies are flagging and seem to be in the process of carving a base. Adding to this notion, is the fact that ETHBTC is at very significant support. This adds directional bias to the long...

TheRealPeaches

I'm currently traveling through Europe, doing a tour of Germany, France and Spain. Being the Gold and Silver bug that I am, I like to check the price charts in the currency I'm using. Even priced in Euros, Silver is painting a deathly head and shoulders pattern, probing critical support. Even in Euros, the measured move projects down to below the 2008 low of...

TheRealPeaches

EURUSD has bounced significantly in the last few weeks, having broken down from the 3 month bearish triangle. Technically, the breakdown has been invalidated. False moves create fast moves in the opposite direction, as bottom-shorters and top-longers bail. Now we are back in the same zone we arrived at in May. Should we expect a bounce? If so, how far? The...

TheRealPeaches

The SP 500 is stair-stepping up parallel support lines, whilst butting up against parallel lines set by March intraday lows. This is technically bullish, and implies that a breakout to the next parallel line is in the cards. The only concerning point is the successive Stoch RSI bearish divergence. While excessively bullish markets will ignore bearish divergence...

TheRealPeaches

The NASDAQ continues to progress in a channel within a fork structure. Nothing is bearish here. The upper portion of the fork was re-captured in May, and price has held there ever since. Should the rising channel break, I expect the mid line of the fork to hold as support, as it has done previously. A break of that line would only imply a retest of the lower...

TheRealPeaches

The Dollar has shrunk from channel resistance. As long as it remains in this channel, bullishness remains. A bounce off trendline support in the 95.6 area is preferred, but we could still see a test of 95 flat. The latter case would imply sizable bounces in the Euro, AUD, and Gold. Of course, if the bullish thesis holds, these will bounces to sell, and in the case...

TheRealPeaches

Oil has made a technical break, re-testing the support-turned-resistance line perfectly. It is now resting above the 200MA, the last support before trendline support at 62, and horizontal supports at the 59 and 55 areas. A tactical short within Friday's candle would be a good entry. The short bias holds below the 68.3 area, a close above there would shift Oil...

TheRealPeaches

The Dow rallied impressively last week. While the preceding fortnight was consolidation, last week's candle is undeniably bullish. New highs are imminent. However, I still feel some caution is necessary, and that we are in a consolidation phase that is not yet complete. Many forex and commodity markets have begun to make counter-trend moves - with the Euro, AUD,...

TheRealPeaches

The monthly chart of Gold is telling. The down trend line from the 2011 high has provided a bounce. We should expect this support to hold temporarily because of its long term significance. We have also pierced the lower b band, suggesting the market has swung to an extreme. However, the poor fundamentals of Gold do not alter the downward trajectory. Having not...

TheRealPeaches

I was initially hoping for the Yen to fall, sparking a breakout of a multi-month consolidation. However, the Yen was one of the few currencies that as actually appreciated versus the dollar, in the face of a technical bullish progression in the USD. Unlike the Euro, the AUD and others, the Yen is trading more like a save haven. Consequently, the breakout was...

TheRealPeaches

I wrote last week that many stock markets around the world were threatening downtrends. That down move materialized in ITA40, DE30EUR, EU50EUR, JP255USD, among others. These charts have heavy patterns, they all look as if they could give way at any moment. Yet US markets simply consolidated above their breakout areas. The markets are screaming at us that capital...

TheRealPeaches

This is the daily of Gold. Whatever market we're looking at, it's all about the US Dollar - and will continue to be for some time. The DXY has broken above major support. That being the case, I find it inconceivable that Gold should rally... yet, I cannot ignore the bull div forming in Gold. We may be looking at a pause, in which case a breakout of last week's...

TheRealPeaches

I don't like being bearish. I'm an optimist by nature and like to see things rising. It also says something about my journey as a trader, as I started investing in 2008, at the feet of the financial crash, so I'm used to buying dips and riding upwards. Yet, I find bear opportunities plentiful in forex - EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD. I'm also bearish commodities like...

TheRealPeaches

Ethereum has broken trendline support and is now flagging beneath - classic bearish action. A return above the support line would stall downside momentum, otherwise the path of least resistance is down. I'm eyeing the 340 area as first support. From these levels, that's a risk-reward of around 2.5 ...not the best, maybe a better average price can be found on a...

TheRealPeaches

The NZDJPY is at a major crossroads, tempting the break of multi-year trendline support, dating back to the 2011 low. The last 12-24 months' action seems to foretell an accelerated downturn. My first target is the 69 area, with a risk-reward ratio of around 4.8 Only a break of the succession of lower highs would shift me neutral.

TheRealPeaches

Ethereum fails to benefit from Bitcoin's rally. As to what this indicates, I have no idea. It could be investor uncertainty and doubt. Perhaps money is waiting for Bitcoin to pause for breath at a higher level, before it can be re-invested in more speculative cryptos. The trendlines for ETHUSD are easy. We are awaiting a breakout of a 6 week consolidation, of...

TheRealPeaches

Gold is breaking the final frontier of a multi-year pennant. It is now nestled below trendline resistance and the weekly 200MA. Could this just be a false move? Unfortunately for the Gold bulls, Gold has to contend with a a very bullish USD. Unless the USD is going to make a move to the downside, I cannot see Gold making ANY serious upside traction. And my...

TheRealPeaches

EURUSD has been churning for 2 months. The triangle consolidation will break. My bet (I'm short) is that it will beak down. I'm not expecting a clean break, as we are nestling above 2015-2016 resistance-turned-support and the weekly 200MA. This might produce a choppy environment. However, once these supports give way, I would expect a swift move to the lower...