TheRealPeaches

TheRealPeaches

The story of the NASDAQ is the story of a lot of global equities at this point. The SPX and DE30EUR come to mind. This, among others, is what makes me doubtful of new DJIA highs. I've singled out the NASDAQ because the bearish divergence is the clearest. I favor shorting the NASDAQ on intraday rallies because of this clarity. A break of green support to the...

TheRealPeaches

Bitcoin is currently in a holding pattern, between the 200MA and previous resistance-turned-support. As long as we hold this support, we are poised to go higher. First target is the 9500, then around 11000. The most bullish scenario would be to consolidate here for a day or two, pop above the 200MA, which would then act as support on the way up to 11k. Should...

TheRealPeaches

In my previous post, I was short the DJIA, with the expectation of adding at down trending resistance. I did add, but was quickly stopped out. Now price has broken ABOVE the resistance line, and I'm forced into a neutral position. This means I have no conviction either way, and any trades I take will be 1/3 of my full size. I do not want to be one of these...

TheRealPeaches

We are at predictable resistance in DJIA. Last Thursday saw the break of a rising wedge, but Friday offered little follow-through. We are now falling moderately in early Sunday trading (at the time of writing). I was aiming for a test of trendline resistance within the purple box. We can still test this area; either way, I'm betting on a wholesale decline in...

TheRealPeaches

Today was a big day across the board. Big moves in the Nasdaq and currency markets, and of course - Bitcoin. Today Bitcoin confirmed perhaps the cleanest Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern I have seen in a long time. We have popped up almost 10% at the time of writing. Not an insignificant move. The dilemma we now face is where price has stopped - at trendline...

TheRealPeaches

This is the Daily chart of bitcoin. We failed at 6800 resistance, which has given way to a moderate drop, into a level of weak support. There are two ways of reading this pattern - an unresolved inverse H&S pattern, or a signal to lower lows ahead, invalidating the H&S. This brings me to a core concept of technical analysis. The point of TA is to make the...

TheRealPeaches

As the USDJPY breaks out of a major triangle pattern, the CHFJPY is breaking above a smaller multi-week H&S pattern. A target would be around the 116 level, confluence of a measured move and 200 weekly moving average. I won't trade this as my current platform doesn't allow me to set a stop at the week's low. You will find that trading providers offer so-called...

TheRealPeaches

The USDJPY is breaking out of a multi-month triangle. I have entered a long position with a stop below this week's open. I was specifically waiting for this breakout to enter, which I consider just a small addition to my 'long dollar' portfolio. My major shorts are EURUSD, and GBPUSD. If the breakout holds, I will begin to build a larger position in USDJPY. My...

TheRealPeaches

This is the weekly chart of Savills PLC, real estate provider. I rarely trade stocks, but sometimes I see an opportunity that piques my interest, because it a) has an interesting chart and b) fits into my fundamental world view. In this case, I believe that housing is over-leveraged, and is 'affordable' only as a result of an artificially low interest rate...

TheRealPeaches

Yesterday was a buying opportunity. We needed to see follow-through today, which did not materialize. This rejection compounds the bearish reversal. What happens next? ...think of the elevator scene in The Shining for a clue. We are about to witness the sacrifice of 2017's gains, in a very short space of time. Make no mistake; it will be bloody, fast, but it is...

TheRealPeaches

Gold's bearish divergence has played out well, combined with a measured move to lows from a head and shoulders top. We have bounced strongly today, just as the dollar is posturing higher. The dollar and gold CAN and Do rise and fall together, which is often overlooked. Yet with stocks falling too, this gives Gold a muddled outlook. For as long as Gold survives...

TheRealPeaches

We are currently consolidating upwards, after the most convincing bounce yet. 6k was a good place to bounce, being a confluence area of multiple horizontal levels, trendlines extending from 3k and 5k lows, with significant bullish divergence. We are now in a rising wedge formation, which will soon resolve. A breakdown will indicate a retest of the lows. A...

TheRealPeaches

"And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him." There are two successful buying strategies in trading. In the first, you ride the tail of a comet; buying with strong momentum propelling you into the stars, your equity curve buoyed by cherubs. In the second, you watch and wait in monk-like silence, as...

TheRealPeaches

In my last dow update, I was excited because price broke out of an upward wedge - a powerful trend continuation signal. BUT... We quickly lost momentum and fell back down into the wedge and lower. This is NOT a good sign. Bullish formations denied become bearish. The market is scared of the action-packed week's data - specifically the FOMC decision tomorrow....

TheRealPeaches

The triangle: a measured move to the upside takes us to about 15k, and a measured move to the downside would take us to around 7k. Exceeding 13.7k on the upside would avert downside, and depending on the structure, a solid close into the 15k region could be the beginning of a new rally. On the downside, we have monthly, weekly and trendline support. A final...

TheRealPeaches

The dow has been trading well within a rising wedge. Rising wedges in bull trends can be very good, or very bad. When price breaks up from a rising wedge, it can be very powerful. DJI gave 3 entries in January. You had to be quick, but you are being generously rewarded. The first was at the start of the year - easy breakout. The second was a small...

TheRealPeaches

January has seen a collapse in the Dollar. The monthly bear div that formed over last October and November has resolved. Yet, we are in a confluence of horizontal and trend support. Its possible a bounce could materialize here. But... It will be really interesting to see how DXY handles the red resistance line above. It would be textbook for price to bounce,...

TheRealPeaches

Gold exceeded the key high set last September, but has since backed away. Thursday printed a rejection of the high, and Friday confirmed that rejection. Since Gold has climbed in January, we have been losing momentum. This, and the bearish divergence in the Stoch/RSI makes it difficult to initiate a long trade here. Taking a look at Silver - not shown - we can...