TheSpringHunter

TheSpringHunter

This area will offer a good area for a short. Observing reaction and waiting for a convincing entry bar. Setup - 1 to 1 also price might move behind a previous high and take the stops. Call it Double top, Support Resistance, it doesn't matter. If stops are taken there will be trapped people. Stochastic in Overbought - not that it strictly predicts anything...

TheSpringHunter

See how volume was drying down and was not validating the rising price. Then we had this red Outside bar on raising volume that occurred at the exact 1 to 1 point. Also, it occurred above a previous high so we might imagine that stops were taken. This was also the 61% retracement. Another confluence point is a Divergence from both the 8 and 14 period...

TheSpringHunter Updated 

We have a Gartley or AB=CD potential from the 61% retracement level. Volume is drying down which is a leading indicator of price. SPX500 regularly tests the 78% range which was going to make the setup called Gartley 222. I personally look for these at the 61% levels and the 78%. Quite possible to see a few stop hunts until we see a decisive move down, but...

TheSpringHunter Updated 

Potential Upthrust in this area. Waiting for a 3-wave correction for a valid Upthrust. Then a good entry bar will be needed for a trigger. Notice Stochastic enter overbought so good for confluence. Sett spot trade is also possible, but looking for people to be trapped.

TheSpringHunter Updated 

Great upthrust example, stops were taken and price reverses aggressively. Price already moved a substantial amount down so won't initiate a trade.

TheSpringHunter Updated 

If I see a good entry bar indicating that stops were taken and there is enough liquidity for a strong move up I might enter this as a Spring setup - a form of AB=CD. What I don't like is the longer consolidation, but if you go to 1H it still confirms the bulling trend. We are not here to predict the future, but to buy with a small stop in relation to the...

TheSpringHunter

Possible 1 to 1 short due to measured move. Also a valid Upthrust setup. We have an inside bar on the 30 min timeframe, one may use that for a low-risk high-reward entry. The longer target is the previous resistance area around 4444.

TheSpringHunter

Spring from the 61% Fib retracement. Plus some divergence. What we observe: Area of support where stops were taken out and now we have a good entry bar on raising volume. One of the longer targets is the 161% extensions level - there is a low probability of reaching it according to the backtests, but the risk to reward is sufficient in the long run. We do not...

TheSpringHunter

Potential upthrust. Waiting for a strong entry bar. 1H trend is a bit bullish, but 4H trend is down according to my Long term EMAs.

TheSpringHunter Updated 

There are two ways to enter: one way you wait for the signal on the chart where you observe the divergence - in this case, the 4H chart. Another way is to go down to the 1H chart and wait for the entry signal - it can definitely give you a better entry point and better RR, but with divergences, it's not rare to see 2-3 trades in a row failing from the lower timeframes.

TheSpringHunter

I don't see a clear sell signal yet (the sell signal I typically wait for is a 4 bar fractal play, it's late, but it's indicating a good turning point). Typically for a swing trade, I'd play for 1.5 - 2 target or Look for Fib extension levels for a target, but as this is a trading range like price action 1 to 1 is the only option I see. Monitoring for now.

TheSpringHunter

SHort divergence forming below long term EMEA. Bar fractal indicates a sell signa.