Well well, what a crazy ~10 days it has been. There were many many warnings before the rug pull that FTX ended up being (Marc Cohodes, was ringing the alarm bells for months on end and I was naïve enough to think he may have been wrong). Anyway, my previous assumptions of the bottom being in were invalidated. In hindsight, this outcome, which I had considered...
Do I really need to go into detail here? Obviously, we go up from here. Pack your bags, for thou Jesus will descend upon us and pump our bags for thou shall not pump without packed bags
Fractal is just a guide, an idea, of similar price action potentially.
In this analysis, we will delve into the significance of confluence in technical analysis, the implications of shareholder dilution, the role of Bitcoin mining, and the importance of the technical indicators used in our assessment of Riot Platforms, Inc (RIOT). Confluence in Technical Analysis Confluence is a crucial aspect of technical analysis, as it allows...
Based on my analysis, I have found that the current price action in the market is quite similar to that of the previous cycle, which leads me to believe that we are in the midst of another boom cycle. In line with this thinking, I expect to see a run up to at least the 1.618 Fibonacci level, much like we saw in the previous cycle. To ensure an accurate...
Check notes on the chart. 1) Bearish Rising Wedge 2) Descending Triangle 3) Ascending Triangle Expansion Creating CME Gap, aka Futures Liquidity Gap. (These almost always get backfilled.) 4) Current Pattern, Bullish Ascending Channel. We had a fake out to flush the longs, and create liquidity, and to backfill the CME Gap. All other narratives are fun stories....
Another interesting observation here.. Trend Based Fib-Time.. The significance of the 0.618 and the 2 levels cannot be discounted. This a big-picture, Quarter-by-Quarter outlook so not accurate to the month, day or week, but to the 3-month quarter in which it falls in. The 0.618 has 3 times (if we assume that the bottom was put in last quarter) marked the...
Based off previous cycle fib-measurements and projections, I believe the top will likely occur in September 2025, with a maximum approximate price of $13,620 (within the $13,000-$14,000 price range).. Lets see if this ages line fine-wine .. Check back in a few years ;-)
Capitulation Sell Volume? Check 50/100 MA Cross? Check Sentiment at all time lows? Check My own custom indicator, Average Oscillator, is a combo calculation of volume+4 difference oscillators, averaged out. It's indicating a bullish divergence. End of this month, as predicted long ago, will likely be a break to the upside.
I think what's playing out is a bull pennant, break and retest on the 0.618 fib, to a run up to match the measured move/size of the pennant (~18%).. towards the next 0.618 fib around 27,000$ where I believe there will be some resistance.
Do we see some relief into October? Or, do we lose the 38.2% fib retracement level ? Fundamentally, Macro seems bad, but forward looking, DXY rolling over, Oil already rolled over... It's possible a relief rally follows before another sell off EOY. Similar charts with Nasdaq and SPX
What goes up, generally comes down. Liquidity void will get filled to build some market structure. Targeting 5.90 Custom indicator printed two 4's which is severely overbought. Correction likely.
Bearish Divergence + Major Monthly Resistance + Rising Compression/Wedge = Perfect storm for a dump. Targeting the 78.6% Fib level.
Notes on chart. Ascending triangle into downward diag resistance. Bullish BTC Action Expecting breakout of ~18%+
Rally up to 3.80 in coming weeks seems likely. Ascending triangle + Adam/Eve bottom pattern forming.
Posted my notes on the chart.. Think this retraces down to ~1.65
Looks like an inverse H&S Potentially forming here.. into downward diag resistance.. Likely another spook for Halloween, to form the right shoulder, then a thrust up for November.. "Upvember"
Do we see some relief into October? Seems likely.. I think a possible test of the 50% retracement (another 2% downside) is possible.. Fundamentally, Macro seems bad, but forward looking, DXY rolling over, Oil already rolled over... It's possible a relief rally follows before another sell off EOY. Similar charts with SPX and DJI