The_Pain_Trade

The_Pain_Trade

Currently still in a uptrend on the long term charts, however it is looking increasingly likely that it may have peaked this cycle. First support incoming at around $79k, major support at around $58.5k. If these don’t hold then it will surely be crypto winter.

The_Pain_Trade

Looking for SLV to give back some of its gains as it does some backing and filling. Think the dollar bounces here offering a challenging environment for precious metals.

The_Pain_Trade

Checking out a chart of KRE the regional banks have been the epicenter of the latest banking crisis. The FED has responded with BTFP to try and get ahead of the problem of mark to market losses on MBS and treasury holdings, but is it enough? I would have expected confidence in the sector to be somewhat restored and stock prices to have a relief rally. But...

The_Pain_Trade

With the bear market rally charging ahead full steam, VIX is now back sub 20s. Sure it can go lower still but for those of you thinking this bear market rally will end sooner rather than later picking up some vix calls isn't a bad idea. They're reasonably priced and offer good insurance should equities puke.

The_Pain_Trade

Looking at a chart of the DXY it appears to be working on forming a head and shoulders top. Pattern is not complete until it breaks through the neckline, but the formation can clearly be seen and is currently working on the right shoulder. Should the pattern complete it targets a measured move to 87.75. I'll leave you to make your own conclusions as to what...

The_Pain_Trade

The dollar is in a secular downtrend, but after retracing 78.6% fib of its recent up move it looks to be trying to put in a double bottom. Going long DXY here to play for a potential bounce higher. This would be a potential negative for risk assets and is certainly something to keep an eye on. Don't expect it to completely reverse trend here but a nice pop...

The_Pain_Trade

TLT was down 2.35% on the day. If it can break the horizontal support, look for rates to rally and TLT to fall further. It has already broken rising trend support. If rates do continue to rally look for this to have a negative effect on tech stocks whose cashflows are highly sensitive to changes in the discount rate. All eyes now on the Fed. Lets see who blinks...

The_Pain_Trade

TLT was down 2.35% on the day. If it can break the horizontal support, look for rates to rally and TLT to fall further. It has already broken rising trend support. If rates do continue to rally look for this to have a negative effect on tech stocks whose cashflows are highly sensitive to changes in the discount rate. All eyes now on the Fed. Lets see who...

The_Pain_Trade

Big cap tech has held up well this week and after a climatic buying spree on Thursday NVDA has put in a a bearish shooting star candle. With a P/E of 147 this stock is richly valued and could fall a long way if the selling in the general market catches up to big tech.

The_Pain_Trade

The dollar is in a secular downtrend and after a brief bounce back which we played on the long side, the DXY is looking toppy and should continue to rollover in the intermediate term. Besides stocks, a beneficiary of a weaker dollar are the precious metals. I like long SLV as a high beta trade and expect SLV to continue to bounce higher in the coming weeks.

The_Pain_Trade

The dollar is in a secular downtrend. After a brief respite I expect the downtrend to resume. The BOJ is currently still defending their YCC and while they will continue this policy a while longer I expect it to be modified and eventually phased out. This will lead to higher yields globally but especially in Japan. This should help to strengthen JPY so I like...

The_Pain_Trade

Higher for longer rates are bad for risk assets. COIN has broken its uptrend and I look for the stock to move lower over the coming month. For a trade I went long the Mar 17 '23 $50 Put on COIN. We shall see.

The_Pain_Trade

The narrative from earlier this yr that slowing growth would cause the Fed to pivot sooner rather than later is slowly being undone as market participants realize that inflation is sticky and likely to result in rates higher for longer from the Fed. As a play on higher rates I like TBT the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Yr Treasury ETF. It has recently broken its...

The_Pain_Trade

TSLA has been the darling of the recent rally and is up over 100% from its lows. Looks overextended here and is finally breaking down. Going long the April $190 put.

The_Pain_Trade

Market is consolidating at the highs. After a vicious run the rally appears to be running out of steam. Looking to get short on any break of the upward sloping resistance line. VIX has also broken out and appears to be moving higher. Bitcoin is breaking lower as well. Has the speculative echo bubble finally popped?

The_Pain_Trade

QQQ has long since broken out of its downward sloping resistance. There are a lot of challenges facing the market right now with talk of an imminent recession, fed rate hikes and the like. My sense is that there is still room to go in this rally. Too many are bearish and there is still a lot of cash on the sidelines. Seasonality and the powerful presidential...

The_Pain_Trade

Uranium miners are breaking out of downward sloping resistance trend line. If the world is serious about going green then nuclear will have a big part to play and the world needs uranium.

The_Pain_Trade Updated 

This stock has really been on a tear recently and with a global recession looming I look for oil demand to wane. Going to take the short side of this trade and fade any bounce with long the Feb $11 puts.