The_Pain_Trade

The_Pain_Trade Updated 

European equities have been an out performers for 23 and I look for that trend to continue. This can be accomplished by a long position in EWG - iShares MSCI Germany ETF. At the moment the rally should be entering a good supply zone so I will look to add to longs on any pullback which should be short and shallow.

The_Pain_Trade Updated 

With inflation pressures easing and the Fed soon to pivot from raising interest rates Bonds should catch a bid here. I like long TLT the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF. Look for bonds to start 23 strong and outperform a slumping market.

The_Pain_Trade Updated 

The decline in natural gas prices looks overdone to me. We've had a warmer than average winter across much of the globe pushing prices down, but I think prices look ripe for a bounce. Using the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas ETF, BOIL I'm going long here. BOIL does issue a K1 so I'm buying call options to avoid having to deal with the K1 at tax time. ...

The_Pain_Trade

Today was the first day in a while where bad news was bad for the market. After bouncing down off downward sloping trend resistance stocks moved lower on the day. Volatility has been relatively low and I'm looking to take advantage of that buy going long the Mar $20 calls. This should provide a good hedge against further market downside.

The_Pain_Trade Updated 

Looking at QQQ Investco QQQ Trust the rally is loosing steam and will soon run up against downward trending resistance. Looking to short here or just a bit above.

The_Pain_Trade Updated 

EMLC is bumping up downward sloping resistance line. Should it breakout I'm looking to accumulate shares of EMLC - VanEck JPMorgan EM Local Currency Bond ETF. These bonds are denominated in local EM currency and should benefit from a falling dollar. I also like the 6.85% yield.

The_Pain_Trade Updated 

After a terrible 22 bitcoin is again surging to the upside. Look for related stocks like COIN Coinbase to follow.

The_Pain_Trade

BBBY is going to go bankrupt. Im long the $3 put in expectation that the stock goes to $0.

The_Pain_Trade

Silver coming up against downward resistance. Looks like a good spot to short here. This goes incorporates well with my tactical bounce in the dollar too.

The_Pain_Trade

Long term trend in the dollar is decidedly bearish, but markets rarely move in straight lines. I think the decline in the dollar is overdone on a short term time frame and am positioning for a bounce. I like USDU the WisdomTree Bloomberg US Dollar Bullish Fund since it doesn't issue a K1.

The_Pain_Trade Updated 

Short VIX has been one of the most successful trade du joirs during the bull market. It makes sense then that this one is going to catch a lot of traders wrong footed since the market turned, as it appears VIX has just been consolidating before a larger breakout and instead of being a good short here is actually a good buy. The remarkable symmetry if you're...

The_Pain_Trade

Looks like VIX is safely below 30 for the close.

The_Pain_Trade

The bear market in crude continues to march on. After giving a false breakout of it's downtrend line (not shown) it didn't take long before it broke the all important $50 level and is now trading at a $45 handle. I expect that the downtrend will continue and wouldn't even think about picking a bottom until we're in the upper $20s

The_Pain_Trade Updated 

Possible symmetry in markets developing as part of a broader, yet-to-be confirmed head and shoulders pattern. Look for initial leg up before turning sharply around to form a second right shoulder.

The_Pain_Trade Updated 

The global carry trade makes the JPY a good indicator of risk sentiment. When things start to go south you'll see the global carry trade unwind as traders sell USD and buy JPY. Looking at the chart you can see that risk off environments are often punctuated by spikes lower in USD/JPY as there were lately in Oct and Nov. However zooming out and looking at a...

The_Pain_Trade Updated 

Crude has recently broken out of a downward channel. After a brief retest of is it now safe to dip your toes back into oil and the related energy complex?

The_Pain_Trade

Despite continuing equity market weakness today, TLT had a reversal on it's daily candle (not shown). Looking at the resistance line shows that it was violated, but only briefly before racing back below, indicating a reversal of direction. Should easily come back down to around $119 and potentially $116 as a more aggressive target. Could even indicate a...

The_Pain_Trade

Rates have come in quite a bit of late with the recent global growth fears. Look for them to bounce back as the slowdown in global growth isn't as bad as initially feared.