The_Rational_Investor

The_Rational_Investor

The food delivery business in India is going through a re-biasing process. Zomato and Swiggy had taken the markets by storm during the Pandemic era, and had seen strong tailwinds which made their toplines grow massively. But now with the changes in the post pandemic era, we can see a significant demand for a dine-in experience. As more and more people get...

The_Rational_Investor

How do you drive an electric car, when you are running low of electricity to charge with? How do you differentiate in a market where competition starts to grow significantly with new players joining the game with little or no difference to your previous competitive edge? How do you foresee a challenge from an unexpected quarter - Hydrogen? These are the three...

The_Rational_Investor

From 1995 to 2002 the DXY saw a rapid rise. The US economy was fueled by the DOTCOM boom and the Fed kept the interest low between 5-6% compared to its previous historical levels at 20% in the 1980s. However, the DOT COM Bust, saw interest rates collapse to.96%, and the DXY fell along with this. The market is watching out for the FED meeting in Jackson Hole. This...

The_Rational_Investor

Gold moved to my Target 2 of 1690. Now it is going to pullback till 1750 before it retests 1690. It is following a typical wykoffian trend. I am going to short it again from 1750. Please comment with your opinions

The_Rational_Investor

Silver is going to further fall towards 16 dollars. Following a typical Wykoffian Trend. Current indicators (Strength, Stochastics, MACD, Velocity, Impact) indicate further downside. The acceleration of the downside trend can come swiftly. Be careful with Silver's movement. It can burn if you are going long. The Pullbacks can also be deep to SL hunt. For...

The_Rational_Investor

Oil: Next Stop 86? Oil is following the price action trend beautifully as my shorts are giving me a good play on Oil. Oil will fall till 85 while the wildfires rage. Demand and supply wont be the only factors driving oil. Political considerations, Socio-Political issues, and Geopolitics is going to drive the price of oil towards the mid 80s. I am currently SHORT on oil.

The_Rational_Investor

BTC continues to follow the previously analysed Price Action Projection. Watch the Price. My analysis tells me that BTC will continue to play in the RED ZONE for the next few weeks before making a break lower. Recent news that Tesla has offloaded 75% of their BTC holdings is not going to help it much. For more details further posts to follow.

The_Rational_Investor

My indicators point to near completion of the current pullback. Given that we still have more pain to go through: 1. Russian Gas for EU creates uncertainity. 2. Lavrov (Russian FM) mentions the extension of the russian 'end game'. They wish to "Neuter' the Ukrainians, and therefore their attacks will continue. 3. Wildfire and heat will have an effect on food...

The_Rational_Investor

Tesla is in a Penant Flag Pattern in the downtrend. Elon Musk has already warned of economic headwinds, falling orders, increasing competition, supply chain issues, labour disputes, production issues in Germany and California, The breakout from this pattern should be in the downside. The smart trade will be options which bet on further downside from its current...

The_Rational_Investor

As the VIX continues in a flag pattern since January 2022, a few observations can be made: At the height of the maximization of the the VIX following the Ukraine invasion, the VIX was still lower than the level it reached when the COVID headwinds hit the markets. This shows that the shock of the invasion and its expected impact was lower than that of COVID. The...

The_Rational_Investor

platinum is in a downward channel heading to 740. With lower lows and lower highs, it is a steady drop in a channel. Given the current Geo-political situation, the economic demand falling, issues with supply chains, the launch of solid state batteries for cars, platinum and palladium will see a falling demand, and therefore, a falling support price. This is an...

The_Rational_Investor

BTC is expected to have a price action in the orange zone. If the BTC price action breaks above the neckline, then it will recover from its downslide. But that is highly unlikely given the current set of issues: 1. Increasing instability will prop the dollar and put a downward pressure on BTC 2. Rising cost of energy will make it more expensive to mine BTC,...

The_Rational_Investor

True to form, and following my projection from the 27th of June, 2022, Gold broke the 1800 barrier and fell below for a short moment ... So where next? Well, for the moment, Gold is going to pullback to the 1810 levels, before it breaks the 1800s again in the next downtrend. It may be a good time to make profit from its short pullback. TP at 1810, with SL at...

The_Rational_Investor

If TSLA enters the Downtrend Confirmation Zone ( Lower Low), its trend is confirmed with two different Technical Analysis models. 1. Wycoff: Current indicators are that its still in the distribution phase. 2. Elliot Waves. It has finished it's wave pullback and continues with its downtrend. Stochastic and Strength indicators point to a continuation of the...

The_Rational_Investor

BTC heading towards 12K in a death trap channel ... Following a typical 2nd Phase Wykoff Distribution. Moving along the channel. There are pleanty of options to go both long and short in day trading time frames. Just need to be careful to make sure pants stay unburnt. I am still short till 12k. Meanwhile taking micro positions to take advantage of small...

The_Rational_Investor

EURUSD Has reached a significant support at 1.04. This is now at an accumulation phase, and next it will move to 1.08 by Oct 2022, before it revisits the support of1.04 again. A good trade setup is to buy at 1.04 with TP at 1.08 and SL at 1.02 (2:1 Reward / Risk ratio). and then sell at 1.08 with a TP at 1.05 and SL at 1.10

The_Rational_Investor

There is still more to fall in USTECH 100. It has fallen over 30% from its ATH of more than 17000. Given the scale of the volatility that is experienced since the invasion of ukraine and its ramifications, there is still another 15+% fall in the horizon. Nothing happens in a straight line, so we may see the index rise towards 12500 before it resumes its downward...

The_Rational_Investor

As Recession fears increase, and inflation rises, more and more Central Banks are increasing their rates. As the US Fed boosts the dollar, this will put a downward pressure on gold. The ban on Russian gold has given a temporary respite to the price of gold which will momentarily go towards 1850 before heading down towards 1800. The movement is following a...