The_dumpster_diver

The_dumpster_diver

Just my opinion

The_dumpster_diver

With Fridays 2 sigma move after a "glitch" from China and a "glitch" from America and a "glitch" from the Eurozone. It's no surprise we're busting out the big guns. But will it be enough? The main point the fed will defend is fed independence after trumps statements rebuking fed chairs powell. With Saturdays hawkish tone will Trump's banter cause Powell to...

The_dumpster_diver

prepare for the witching, when it comes its going to be brutal

The_dumpster_diver

death is imminent, the hour is almost upon us

The_dumpster_diver

facebook is in a drag-on pattern.lol. jk. about to do a nice do do

The_dumpster_diver

Icarus has flown too close to the sun. his wing are melting, will it be a slow melt or a fast and quick?

The_dumpster_diver

i see btc kind of like gold, during deflation the primary exchange currency is likely to gain prominance and purchasing power is increased. the downside effect of deflation is ALL assets are hurt except for reserve currencies (DXY) and reserve currency equivs (treasuries). deflation okay so whats the big deal, its the sinkhole psychology that creates a loop with...

The_dumpster_diver

Interest rate differentials sparking volatility after Ecb extreme dovish tilt . China prints some of the worst numbers I've seen in a while. Expect dollar strength as flight to quality catches a bid. We now begin our path on the year long head and shoulders

The_dumpster_diver

The next 1-2 weeks are critical

The_dumpster_diver

there's a high correlation between canadian dollar and oil. although data was moderate that came out about inventories. the moving/defining part of todays trade is the dovish tilt from BOC. the loonie fell supporting oil prices. oil is on the ropes and refinery utilization is very much to be focused on along with inventory numbers as we prep for driving season. i...

The_dumpster_diver

so this slight pop in vvix is still controlled/favoring the short side overtime due to the embedded cost of carry.we have yet to see a realized volatility moment like we did during December (melt down). with vvix around its historic range, i say no need to fear the reaper. although higher vix may be perceived with higher risk, its actually the opposite. so, with...

The_dumpster_diver

Ultra accommodation coming from the boj knocking 10 yr back into negative range. This controls the incentive to buying yen and is a psychological lever for equities. How to play short fxy via debits or call credits

The_dumpster_diver

DUN DUN DUN

The_dumpster_diver Updated 

ba the crystal ball. i see some shock and awe coming from non farm payrolls tomorrow (speculative call) that being said i expect the rate narrative to shift from ultra dovish to moderate. since extreme accommodation has been one of the main catalysts driving things higher if correct interest rate sensitive areas will be prime targets. lets tune back in tomorrow...

The_dumpster_diver

oil volatility or the implied volatility of USO is nearing an extreme.the futures are still in a decent contango. so what does that mean? the cost of options both on the upside and downside is dirt cheap, but the cost of carry spread is nearing a reversion. in contango CL futures outperform vs USO or a future equivalent etp due to cost to carry/decay. however when...

The_dumpster_diver

PMI numbers globally showing both price and overall activity slowing. Although there's a concerted global effort to control deflationary forces. Us economic and foreign policy has global growth on the ropes. Expect the Venezuela story to begin to effect US refiners. There's a vital need for a heavy crude replacement. As an added bonus I expect Venezuela heavy...

The_dumpster_diver

We saw a bullish gap and go along with a positive yield on Japanese 10 year before a mini melt. The remainder of this week we have a flurry of fed speak. So I say this shall be a gap down before melting back up. I'm positioned in BA CSX and Ma. Other positioning 3 long kre 2 short xlf. Still in a very safe vix contango but cash buyers are finally beginning to...

The_dumpster_diver

i see it extremely likely it'll hold. we're beginning to enter a sideways range. im watching japanese 10 year yield and its effects on usdjpy. of course spot vix vs vix futures. still in comfortable range.