The_dumpster_diver

The_dumpster_diver

From post long ago I broke down the significance of the carry trade and it's effect on volatility. With the yen buying being a percieved a fear trade. The positive yield on the jgb removes the disincentive to buy yen thus poor macro data has the ability to have somewhat an effect again

The_dumpster_diver

so heres the question is this a long term head and shoulders (1+yr) or an intermediate inverse head and shoulders (3 months)?

The_dumpster_diver

potential tweezer top on crude. crude picking up on the fact of lower global growth from yesterdays pmi pricing. imo. also venezula will influence us demand for heavy crude from opec causing likely sentiment shifts in the overall output perspective. IV in crude is relatively slow. i favor leap puts in $uso but long Cl on a notional basis. the logic is that crude...

The_dumpster_diver

hey exciting times we begin talking about the debt ceiling and potential default on government debts. lol good times, but this political risk usually helps gold shimmer and shine. IV is low in gold. although in somewhat a down trend the skew is making upside potential fairly cheap. im a small buyer here, lets send in the clowns

The_dumpster_diver

just gonna do what it gonna do

The_dumpster_diver

it appears that the 3 white soldier monthly is a go. as always this is only an opinion but significant resistance has been punched through with force. market wise this leadership could break things through this rut

The_dumpster_diver

looks like a potential exhaustion gap. not necessarily something you want to see in such an important underlining, but makes sense. i see differing tales of divergence/convergence that could be both bullish and bearish. remember BA is a representation of order flow/ beta distribution within the market. if you can rattle BA you can rattle the entire market. from...

The_dumpster_diver

let the games begin

The_dumpster_diver

spot gold preparing a breakout from consolidation. march 1st we shall begin a deficit food fight/the circus is in town. expect possible sequestration. the gephardt rule to be used to make things extra fun.

The_dumpster_diver

ignore the headlines no one gives a crap about trade if anything falling uncertainty is good all around regardless of what headlines say. vix well in a safe place, what matters is j powell. there's a divergence between bond market expectations on future rate hikes and recent fomc comments. with macro factors globally looking gloomy i anticipate powell to reaffirm...

The_dumpster_diver

He loves me. He loves me not. Spot gold wants to hear Powell say he loves me and re affirm a stance of patience by meeting market expectations on future hikes. Market uncertainties and global macro factors influencing FIC markets have me saying. Powell has to say I love you. It is extremely important that he reaffirms at this vulnerable state

The_dumpster_diver

Vix still far in contango. This is classic bear trap

The_dumpster_diver

generational swap divergences make silver my star choice out of all the metals. spot silver breaking out of consolidation period due to trade worries. silver is related to chinese yuan by its connection to aussie dollar. with gold silver swap ratios at generational highs i expect silver to outperform and be buffered during pullbacks

The_dumpster_diver

related to aussie dollar and chinese yuan. spot gold is about to get a bump along with all main metals with softening stances on trade. aussie dollar high correlation to gold, but indirectly aussie is correlated to mainland china growth. as stance become softer and relief sets in gold will be a big beneficiary along with all metals

The_dumpster_diver

In a solid uptrend iV is extremely elevated that being said selling 30 Delta put spreads 30 dte on a rolling basis best way/safest way to capture the upside move. Roll around 50% profit. Do on a rolling basis

The_dumpster_diver

If you know anything about market weighting/beta and log distribution in the market ba is telling you our future

The_dumpster_diver

so its fairly obvious theyre going to have to repay the debt come march 1st, but post repayment there's likely to be a dramatic move based on technical compression and volatility compression in options. volatility is neither bullish nor bearish just deals with overall options pricing, that being said both sides are fairly cheap but the skew in tsla is heavier on...

The_dumpster_diver

in the current environment banks are leading the rally, but volatility is likely to return.but, volatility can remain low for long periods of time. in this trade i see certainty in either direction as a positive. this trade captures either delta change or volatility expansion in the main leading sector. in this trade we take a russell proxy KRE and SP 500 proxy...