The_dumpster_diver

The_dumpster_diver

natty- IV is falling in correlation with price. this is common. as the seasonal bullish period for natty has passed polar vortex, schmolar vortex. the beginning of march the seasonal crush will continue. im selling a 35 Delta call spreads 30 dte on a rolling basis cutting spreads at 50% profit during it's crush period.inventories in natty support this bearish...

The_dumpster_diver

a solid pick. no words how unique of an opportunity kronos is. trading at almost pennies on the dollar, but will require ironically time to grow. this is easily a $35-40 stock with a stable dividend. the only worry is inventory turnover which indicates either an issue with sales price, inventories, or dislocation with customers. either way this could easily...

The_dumpster_diver

atm straddle +-2.17. bearish thesis 170.05 bullish 174.39. im aiming bullish expecting to exceed expected move to the upside. expecting a correlated push upward. sitting on 5 175 c 2/22 for .25. so little to no risk in this wager

The_dumpster_diver

this is a ghetto nobs trade for a retail investor using bond etfs. its a way of taking advantage of current tightness in bond spreads but likelyhood for expansion of spreads post fomc. in this scenario we'll use hyg (corporate credit) as a proxy for short term notes and tlt as a proxy for long term bonds they have a very nice inverse correlation to one another. so...

The_dumpster_diver Updated 

both industrial demand for the commodity and applications for future tech all point that the time for silver is now. most like gold but where the true value is and security will be is in silver. this is the year the gold to silver ratio normalizes back to around a 10 year average rather a 28 year ath... industrial metals specifically dr. copper and silver will be...

The_dumpster_diver

so the jig is up. tslas gonna have to pay up the debt of 920 million by march 1st. they do have a few ways to pay it off, they wont be bankrupt just maybe not the same tesla most are used to seeing. im taking no position just extracting premium

The_dumpster_diver

this is the moment all gold bugs have been waiting for. its dependent on a few factors. the fomc remaining dovish, the international community remaining accommodation/reflating the global economy, and trade resolutions allowing for normal commodity demand. face it, gold is a commodity, it's a beneficiary of inflation but not deflation. if global trade issues are...

The_dumpster_diver

What if this squeeze we've seen since December is a trap? A multi month/year topping process nearing the edge? I'm no advocating being short just catious and maintaining sizing discipline

The_dumpster_diver Updated 

cash secured puts for those unaware you put the full capital up for the position up front in case of being assigned and take a premium in exchange. think about it its almost exactly the same as a limit order, except youre being paid for the Time. in some cases limits never fill, hence where this strategy is extremely useful when entering positions. the cases that...

The_dumpster_diver

i expect mat to begin to sell off assets to try to help their business/rebuild their brand image. their margins are on the rocks. inventories are high, and the level of leverage mat has on the books is pretty high. although speculative i feel that mat would be an ideal buyout candidate or intangible brands to be pieced apart. that reason along im holding some shares long

The_dumpster_diver

expecting a test of resistance area. likely to break bullish. float is very small. i propose a march 22 synthetic long. id sell 6.5 p but 7 call. part of the reason is the high volatility edge that comes with this trade skews the risk reward even if assigned could implement covered call strategy, looks bullish though

The_dumpster_diver

its happening (cue ron paul) yep. btc is finally out of its downtrend. review my last post on btc (nobs, libor lambos o my) it appears to have similar drivers to gold. that being said buckle up

The_dumpster_diver

Projecting a moderate term new range for silver. Since the market is smaller I prefer silver to gold due to silver gold ratio and technicals on the ratio. Silver volatility has dropped which is fairly unusual. Long pure silver miners plays and gold miner plays. Aside from silvers industrial demand theres no reason silver can't go beyond the range projected

The_dumpster_diver

Higher leverage play on overall consumer. Enterprise value is decent low float but looks favorable to enter 45-50 range as a target

The_dumpster_diver

The float is short extremely small. From an Enterprise prespective this is extremely underpriced. Technicals indicating all systems go. I could see this as a buyout canidate around $60-80 share as a modest estimation. Long 50 shares. Will require possibly 1 qtr before 40 range is broken

The_dumpster_diver Updated 

Violent bull flag due to Dr. Coppers correlation to trade sentiment/Chinese industrial demand. I expect all metals to make fairly violent move. Out of all the metals I favor silver

The_dumpster_diver

Bearish divergence daily. Pattern is technically a head and shoulders. Close to neckline. If right 61.50 could be in the works next week. Weak numbers in Eurozone and england say regardless brexit risk Europe is in trouble.

The_dumpster_diver

Buckle your seatbelts we're gearing up for a realized volatility rollercoaster ride. As I've been mentioning in past posts what we need to worry about isn't equity volatility but macro driven bond volatility that can spark contagion in equities. The levers of risk on risk off can be extreme (December melt down), but here's a basic premise of how the game works....