The_dumpster_diver

The_dumpster_diver

Both a fundamentally strong company with a great balance sheet and internal growth. A omnichannel play that has acceptional margins. This is a long term play. Peter lynch junkies eat your heart out

The_dumpster_diver Updated 

atm straddle implies a plus or minus move of $3.80. ive mapped it out based on monday pre-market. support and resistance horizontal lines are based on monthly candles in same range.

The_dumpster_diver

silver based on the gold silver ratio is at a discount not seen since the 1990's. the bearish divergence within the ratio indicates metals traders are be are beginning to flow into or swap gold into silver. since the spread is at an unusual dissonance silver miners may have an extended exposure to the net flows. cde hits most if not all the check boxes i look for...

The_dumpster_diver

Just broke the rising wedge

The_dumpster_diver

march 1st ATM straddle implies a $25 move plus or minus between now and then. the divergence between stock and debt makes this debt obligation meeting without dubious/or forces of god extremely unlikely. the rabit they can pull out of the hat is cash on the balance sheet, stock, AND NON-BALANCE SHEET cash equivalents (zev credits). so yes they will be able to...

The_dumpster_diver

likely to fall back to trend. did break out of a major downtrend so fall back to trend will be healthy longer term

The_dumpster_diver

Now or never for bulls. They need to clear a mild hurdle although many are excited the possibility of bearish divergence occuring looks pretty high. Be careful

The_dumpster_diver

Gold to silver ratio is at a 27+yrs high. Within the physical swap ratio bearish divergence has been detected meaning silver is likely to outperform gold on a notional basis. That being said if gold and silver fall together. Gold is likely to fall faster than silver. But when gold and silver rise silver is likely to outperform gold. CDE is one of a few silver...

The_dumpster_diver Updated 

closed net short trades on BA switched to Long on DIA. trade talks to happen monday and the market looks excited. vix futures still heavily in contango. vix cash below all futures months. based on net change dia options look the juiciest. atm strangle infers plus or minus $3.60. i expect the excitement of trade talks to exceed those levels. i expect to cut...

The_dumpster_diver

many are curious on my thoughts on bitcoin. well much like gold. i feel its an inflationary asset, ie when liquidity is released onto the system it's value grows exponentially. as you may have realized from the nobs trade (zb-f*1/zn-f*3) we're in a very unusual situation where liquidity is hard to come by. globally libor rates have fallen to unusually low levels...

The_dumpster_diver

most have noticed a drop in libor to rates not seen since 2009. most dont realize a lower libor discourages the holding of currency (similar to japanese 10 year yield effect). it encourages the buying of assets. it helps improve bank balance sheets (they need the help). far overlooked this is a response to major FIC losses banks had this past quarter. it is also a...

The_dumpster_diver

daily the rising wedge has been broken. monthly the head and shoulders finally has a right shoulder. hourly this is technically a bearish pennant. good luck. be safe

The_dumpster_diver

main holdings a.o smith--4.70% toll brothers--4.66% owens corning--4.64% pulte group--4.62% mohawk--4.56% home depot--4.54% nvr inc--4.54% masco--4.51% lowes --4.51% dr horton--4.45% home building sector looks like it'll fall back to trend. longer term home building looks very healthy. the main dragger will be home builders inability to sell inventory due to...

The_dumpster_diver

Very rarely does value growth and technicals agree. Sometimes puke trades are the best trades EA looks very appealing at these levels

The_dumpster_diver

As previously mentioned risk sentiment/yen buying is controlled by keeping a negative yeild on the JGB 10 year. A negative yeild ensures an instant loser when buying yen. The bullish divergence in Japanese yeild opens the idea of a positive yeild meaning the ability to buy yen without being an instant looser is getting ready to happen. Yen buying is seen a risk...

The_dumpster_diver

it appear a trend change is about to happen in the cattle market. in my opinion supply outweighs demand and will soon influence cattle pricing. trend changes are fairly normal may take sometime to correct. tomorrows WASDE and other influencing factors may give traders insight post gov shutdown. current curve is backwardated meaning front month futures are trading...

The_dumpster_diver

expect a change in tone from RBA tonight. pay close attention to rba statements on austrialian housing market. oil will follow this move, expect rough seas as global uncertainties rise.

The_dumpster_diver

hot damn get ready here we go the moment ive been waiting for since idk how long