The_dumpster_diver

The_dumpster_diver

ouchies this is gonna hurt

The_dumpster_diver

well that was a close one. read the terms and service of your broker ;) there's no edge here unless brokers allow for the buying/selling of spreads. dont think be cute thinking you can buy otm puts. like earnings when gamma is crushed all options will loose value

The_dumpster_diver

With the financial world turned upside down people are looking for vulnerabilities within the system. Let me direct your eyes to the long end of the bond curve. Stress is already apparent in the repo market and funds are beginning to unwinding left and right. If you look at cot data on the long end of the bond curve specifically the 30-year you will notice that...

The_dumpster_diver

Already seeing stress in the repo market as the demand for cash is beginning to change from The virtuous to the vicious. Weather Powell chooses to believe it or not he may have to intervene to save the stonks/funds caught with their pants down. In the broader market expect correlated selling and the demand for cash.

The_dumpster_diver

This is a PSA. If you are or are not aware of what is currently going on in the market firms are being held hostage in the gme standoff. To meet the obligationsof the contracts they were selling naked (calls) firms are liquidating long positions broadly. Looking at the Cebu skew it is currently at one of the highest levels it can possibly be meaning that there is...

The_dumpster_diver

Vix nearing a liquidation event due to force selling to meet obligations from the Mother Of All Bets (GME). Funds are liquidating longs and fleeing to cash. Since the float of GME is upside down, they will have to settle with holders to satisfy contractual obligations. This is very similar to long term capital management back in the day. The question is will the...

The_dumpster_diver

vol skew measures otm premium demand vs atm demand. the scale goes from 100-150. today we saw history as it cracked outside that range due to a major offloading of hedge activity. just saying ive never seen anything like this. i wonder how many funds are short and how desperate they are to duck and cover?

The_dumpster_diver

what does it means. this is extremmmmmely bad. a demand shock heard around the currency world. monetarily the pboc is at their limits... internal inflation is looking incredible unstable in the mainland.. lets see if china is a reflection of what may come to the us?

The_dumpster_diver

here's where things get really messy really fast.

The_dumpster_diver

this is where things can get ugly really fast. this is bad for the market when the bond market gets a sniff of this

The_dumpster_diver

never have i ever seen something like this. this is the big on

The_dumpster_diver

7.0 is the line in the Sand. All risk assets watching for the main question on all our minds. Inflation or deflation. I haven't been this excited since team Edward vs team Jacob. Obvious long oil I'm team inflation. In order to see this play out gyna needs to see their currency vs the dollar below the 7.0 line

The_dumpster_diver

T boone pickens company from the past. A choice pick for exposure in the permian. This one is a fast mover

The_dumpster_diver

This is where I call bottom and buy with both hands

The_dumpster_diver

the printer is getting ready to run at full capacity.

The_dumpster_diver

based on the past 70 yrs of data. roughly 2% of the time gc1/cl1 has been above 30. lets restart that reflation trade

The_dumpster_diver

last fed meeting the audible pulled was trade tensions via trump. lets see if we have a pattern here.

The_dumpster_diver

its going down. things dont look beuno on the trade front