The price will move similarly to phase 1 but will start pricing-in future inflation as the market realizes the moderate inflation is not going away. This will result in pricing Bitcoin in multiples of inflation just like we currently have PE multiples for pricing companies. Tech companies have PE ratios of 20-25, so it will be normal for Bitcoin to price-in 25...
Bitcoin has concluded a first full cycle starting from the Global Financial Crisis in 2008 to 2022 where the FED is hiking rates. The trend slope approached 0 towards the end of phase 1. After the current regime change we will start a new phase with an uptrend similar to that of the start of phase 1. The uptrend will be driven by novel persistent inflation above...
The market has retraced 70% of the uptrend from 10k to 70k. This is the depth of retracement that typically makes smart money interested in bidding again. We saw consolidation around these levels and also publicly expressed interest by big investors like David Rubinstein. Alan Howard launched a Digital Assets fund with $1bn committed capital. I expect capital to...
29.07.2022 - entry: $24,055 - stop: $23,400 (-2.7%) Buying a trend continuation signal on 1-3h time frame
25.07.2022 - entry: $21,000 - stop: $21,500 (2.4%) intra-day structure breaking with an ongoing hidden bearish divergence in daily RSI.
25.07.2022 - entry: $21,678 - stop: $21,374 (1.4%) Buying the dip with a trend-following view on the uptrend structure since the June low.
24.07.2022 - entry: $22,701 - stop: $22,399 (-1.33%) Long trend continuation on hidden bullish divergence on monthly time frame in RSI
24.07.2022 - entry: $22,710 - stop: $23,400 Hidden divergence on the 4H RSI suggesting one last leg sub 20k
20 July 2022 - entry: $23,365 - stop: $22,590 (-3.3%) Buying dip as a trend-following setup after price rejected the sharp downside momentum. target 34k+ by August
Add to long / hold here at $17,800 with target 23-24 and flip to short.
increased fear post headlines at the last days $20k low level. Would add to long here at $20,200 up to 1x. Think it will take another 8 months to go down 20% more from here. Would sell into §23,000 next days
$23,300 a good level to be covering $30k shorts but not a good long set up at this point. Would be looking to long range breakouts to the downside under $21k now and under $20k in Aug / Sept. Would sell longs $24-25k now and sell long and short $26-28k in Sept / Oct targeting $17-18k
Elliot Wave analysis of all time bitcoin log returns with thoughtful forecast
Expecting a distribution phase around last ATH followed by a cool off period down to bellow $40K. We are likely to see many 10-30% swings up and down inside a range of 40-55K for the next 6 months
Neither drop to 20k nor bounce to 40k. Most OTM options will keep expiring worthless. New uptrend in 2023.
My current view of the market for the next 6 months. Holding a short from $30k, will take profit under 25k next 3 weeks or hold for a liquidation cascade down to 17-19k. Will only be net long from the bottom of the cascade around 18k in August.
first time ever that I had to calculate a negative compound annual growth rate in Bitcoin
Bitcoins first real stress test, aka. the Minsky moment. Expect a gradual decline at a -50% pa rate down to 8k by end of 2023 and subsequent range market akin to 2015 just stretched out over 4 years. New cycle from 2027 on at a 62% annual growth rate