May 26, 2022 Forecast: mean reversion from 28k up to 33k by June 12th
get ready for a very fast reversal over the weekend with traditional risk assets to follow on monday open
11.05.2022 - entry: $40,016 - stop: $39,500 Long into dip around 0.618-0.786 zone with stop bellow 0.786 level ($39,400). Targeting fast bullish price action away from $40k towards $53k next 7 days.
25.02.2022 - entry: $39,185 - stop: $38,890 long for a retest of $45,000 next days tight stop possible
25.02.2022 - entry: $39,471 - stop: $40,000 more down action towards 33k low before upside ranging for a few months
published with delay based on live record 24.02.2022 - entry: $35,000 - stop: $33,000 (5.7%)
17.02.2022 - entry: $42,400 - stop: 45,000 (6%) inverted H&S on daily rejected. Hidden bearish divergence on RSI still present. 66% chance of revisit of 35k
14.2.2022 - entry: $41,650 - stop: $39,000 (6%) targeting 47k before more down
11.2.2022 - entry: $42,125 - stop: $40,999 (2.7%) open long bid from Trade #6 filled.
10.2.2022 - entry: $43,760 - stop: $42,999 (1.75%) entering long after consecutive hidden bullish divergences between RSI (LLs) and price ( HLs ) on the 4h time frame
Expecting continuation of the downtrend which started with the rejection of the new ATH. VOLATILITY: Monthly swings of around 20-30% VOLUME: Expecting to remain high (modal daily volume +$20bn across top futures exchanges) as participants engage in "buying the dips" and Longs from around 50-65k panic sell seeing over 50% permanent drawdowns.
7.2.2022 - entry: $43,900 - stop: $45,706 (4.11%) re-entering for a dip the next few days down to bellow 36k around Feb 16th
retail panic takes shapes in concave down moves that become more negative in slope as more stops and liquidations and panic sells are triggered. convex down moves suggest the opposite where retail does not panic and instead reflexively buys more as prices dump more ( aka . "averaging down", "DCA", "doubling down", etc.) now if you see convex down moves forming...
6.2.2022 - entry: $42,250 - stop: $43,516 (3%) adding to short at the intraday peak
4.2.2021 - entry: $40,250 - stop: $$42,000 (4.35%) should have waited for the $40,000 entry level earmarked in trade #1. now the hidden bearish divergence is also more pronounced.
BTC valuation model based on pricing in of future growth and inflation . BTC is targeting global household wealth (currently at $500T) As the world experiences growth from technological progress, so does wealth. BTC - a representation of wealth - can not expand in supply to account for growth and has to expand in price instead.
2.2.2021 - entry: $36,900 - stop: $39,000 (5.7%) placing another short after bounce printed a hidden bearish divergence on the RSI: trend-continuation signal (down) strong target candidate is the liquidity pool under last year's low (27-30k)
3.1.2022 - entry: $46,300 - stop: $48,615 (-5%) Bitcoin's first Minsky moment