After Mt.Gox blew up in February 2014, the market proceeded with a slow downtrend for another year and consolidated 55% lower. It took over 2 years to recover ...
This is the first trade of a row of short-term trades that I plan on publishing daily
6:1 r/r long trade forecast: neutral style: counter-sentiment bet on stop hunt to +$17,000 and reversion to the mean time-stop: 1.75d
Does a 28% CAGR in BTC for 5 years sub all-time-high qualify as a long crypto winter?
8.11.2022 - entry: $18,248 Buying the dip after a wick has formed on the daily candle from liquidations / running stops below June low
flipped to short because highly likely that a puke will precede an uptrend
31.10.2022 - entry: $20,365 long bids filled to position for a move to 24,000 the next days
Bitcoin exiting from oversold condition on weekly-monthly time frames. Enough damage was done, Michael Saylor resigned (incl. many other crypto executives) Market balance was restored and we are bouncing now
looking to short with trailing stops / reshorting bounces as long as it follows this scenario
... for a future day when I have to defend my forecasting ability making wild claims about bitcoin going from 100m to 1bn
Short on lower time frame without an immediate target.
buy for mean reversion to all time trend at $40,000
credit suisse pulled a lehman ... welcome to the - r e c e s s i o n
you know how it goes, this time upside down (press Alt + i)
here is an example of a naive forecast based on un-informed intuition vs. an informed forecast based on market structure dynamics.
Full retrace to 10k followed by "V" recovery in 2024 to a new ATH.
4.09.2022 entry: $19,900 - stop: $19,000 targeting a jump to $42,000 in September
Expecting a 100% bounce out of the oversold condition. Monthly RSI at all time low indicating slow forced selling (big players that bought 50k are now TWAP'ing out)