I'm long @ 125
Good opportunity to retest 160 or 175 with two major levels of support @ 122 and 111
What I see:
Mar 11/12th Liquidity Grab just below first level of support followed by a retest
Regression line from 293 High is about to be broken
Triangle forming and potential breakout
Its scary how history often repeats itself!
Fundamentals between now and then are very similar.
Will we see one final capitulation euro sell off like back in 2000? or has it already happened?
Silver found some support yesterday which presents a buying opportunity imo
Risk/Reward is very well defined
Previous support at 15.50.
First target 16.70
Second Target 17.20
200 SMA happens to coincide with a significant previous resistance level of 1223.1
Given current positioning in equity markets we could see a significant upside move in a risk off environment.
I favour upside breaks given DXY weakness.
Holding a JUN 15 straddle @ 112
Recent short closed at previous resistance.
A triple bottom and weak US data provided strong encouragement for the Aussie bulls.
But I still find it hard to get exited when you see such a clear rejection of 80c.
Fundamentally there is not much value left in the ASX and our economy is still heading downhill.
Thus still taking opportunities to buy USD.
Hopefully...
Decline in volatility is a good sign of possible exhaustion
Mean reversion targets line-up with previous support and resistance
1.5-2:1 Risk reward
warning (Bank holiday will affect liquidity)
Bearish view maintained but there could be a short term bottom in play
Speculating that we might also see further rate cuts as Australian economy struggles
