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Scenario 1: Higher CPI Bullish Factors: High Treasury Yields: Higher CPI indicates increased inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to consider raising interest rates, leading to higher treasury yields. Low Unemployment: An overheating economy typically shows low unemployment rates. Overheating Economy: Inflationary pressures suggest strong economic activity,...

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Current Gold Price Trends: Gold is currently trading around $2,328.135, having rebounded from $2,315 due to a weaker US Dollar and declining US Treasury yields The anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year supports the bullish sentiment for gold . Impact of Core PCE Index on Gold: The Core PCE Price Index, a key inflation measure, will be released...

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Technical Analysis Trend Analysis: The DXY (Dollar Index) has shown a bullish reversal pattern, breaking above previous lower highs (LH) and forming higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL). The chart indicates a recent breakout from a downtrend channel, transitioning into an uptrend. Key levels to watch include: 138.00% Fibonacci retracement level at...

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Fed's Interest Rate Policy: Fed Governor Bowman sees no interest rate cuts this year Traders are heavily betting on federal interest rate cuts, which typically weaken the dollar and support gold prices. Inflation and Economic Outlook: Fed's Cook expects US progress on inflation to continue potentially stabilizing the dollar and impacting gold inversely. US...

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Current Price and Trend: Gold is trading around $2,321.87. The price is moving within a rising channel, suggesting a bullish trend. Support and Resistance Levels: Support Levels: $2,300: Psychological support level. $2,286.83: Key support zone indicated by the green box. Resistance Levels: $2,338.78: Immediate resistance. $2,399.70 - $2,450.13: Strong resistance...

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Economic Data Impact Retail Sales Data: Positive retail sales data typically strengthens the USD, which may put pressure on gold prices. If retail sales come in as expected or higher (0.3% for Retail Sales m/m, 0.2% for Core Retail Sales m/m), gold may experience a downward move towards the lower Fibonacci levels. Conversely, lower-than-expected retail sales...

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Analyzing the provided gold (XAU/USD) chart on a 4-hour timeframe, here are the potential scenarios based on the CPI data release: 1. *Positive CPI (Higher than expected inflation):* - *Interest Rate Hike Likely:* If CPI data is positive (indicating higher inflation), the Federal Reserve might consider raising interest rates to combat inflation. This scenario...

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Analyzing the provided gold (XAU/USD) chart on a 4-hour timeframe, here are the potential scenarios based on the CPI data release: 1. *Positive CPI (Higher than expected inflation):* - *Interest Rate Hike Likely:* If CPI data is positive (indicating higher inflation), the Federal Reserve might consider raising interest rates to combat inflation. This scenario...

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For tomorrow's economic data release in the U.S., the focus is on the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and the unemployment rate. These are key indicators of the labor market's health and have significant implications for the economy and financial markets. If the NFP report is extremely positive, showing a much higher number of jobs added than expected, it indicates a...

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Market analysis • Rising Dollar Index (DXY) above 104 makes gold more expensive for foreign buyers. • Non-farm payroll data exceeding 200,000 could push gold prices below the 50-day moving average support. • Uncertainties like geopolitical tensions and potential stock market crash could reignite gold's safe-haven appeal. 📈Gold Prices Pull Back, US...

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🔴 Here are the most notable developments: • As we mentioned previously, the preference is to buy the dollar with every decline • This comes after statements by Federal Reserve member Neel Kashkari, who surprised the market and said that the Fed may move to raise interest rates instead of lowering them if inflation continues to rise. • Nvidia is close to...

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If the unemployment claims data on Thursday comes in higher than expected, indicating more people are filing for unemployment, it might suggest a weakening job market. This could lead the Federal Reserve to consider pausing rate hikes or even lowering rates to support the economy. On the other hand, if the claims are lower than expected, showing a strong job...

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🔴 Here are the most notable developments: • Many statements by Federal Reserve members were issued during the week, giving the dollar support in the market in general, or at least preventing it from falling further. • Including the statements of Federal Reserve member Loretta Mester, who said that a one-time drop in inflation will not encourage us to reduce...

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🔴 Here are the most notable developments: • Many statements by Federal Reserve members were issued during the week, giving the dollar support in the market in general, or at least preventing it from falling further. • Including the statements of Federal Reserve member Loretta Mester, who said that a one-time drop in inflation will not encourage us to reduce...

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As of May 2024, the inflation rate in the USA is around 3.4 Despite interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, inflation has not been entirely tamed, and there's still concern about potential economic slowdown or recession. If interest rates continue to rise without effectively controlling inflation, it can lead to several economic consequences. High interest...

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In terms of geopolitical events, like the helicopter crash involving the Iranian president, such incidents can create uncertainty in global markets. If the president died accidentally, the market reaction might be moderate, reflecting general instability concerns. However, if it were discovered he was killed intentionally, this could escalate tensions...

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Scenario 01 : if the Federal Reserve raise interest rates : Probability of this to happend is lower in my opinion but could happend somehow 1. *Dixie (USD Index):* Typically, when interest rates rise, the value of the dollar strengthens. This is because higher interest rates attract foreign investment, increasing demand for the dollar. So, the Dixie would...

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If you did miss this trade bois follow and check my previous analysis i called this trade b4 even the CPI and PPI comes