My bias is to the yellow line, I think we go to $40-$60 before correcting - but i'm positioned long for now with a comfy entry.
Red path would be pain so need to monitor reaction to key levels.
Meme trend line break would be great, but is still a meme and don't think it would do anything but blow out some boomers.
Happy hunting.
Am DCAing to 29k over the coming week, with an expectation of further shorter term pain.
Have already started easing in at 35-36k. My view is that the probability of a straight nuke to 20k's is extremely unlikely without a shorter term bounce (which may stick - who knows).
Playing to the mid level as an optimistic target, but will cut anything that looks weak...
Hard to be super bullish when we consider the steepness of the sell-off compared to May + thin / BOT driven order book flow.
However, I only see two scenarios near term:
1) we accelerate the steepness of the downtrend, SR flip over the next week and go much lower to low 30k's
2) we see a bounce at 44k-45k ish to 55k at least - one last hurrah for alts and an ETH...
If this fractal is accurate (and it has been so far) - we should see a pump to $3800 in the next few days, followed by drawn down and sideways into Nov
Volume, RSI and MACD are all unfavourable. Break of 3181 may lead to upside, everything else should be sold on pump.
Expecting some near term strength to 3000-3070 before another leg down to range lows.
Bull case to consider - we have a vicious drop to low 2k's followed by a big bounce back into the current channel. After that it is brutal and unforgiving chop for many months until everyone is sick and tired of crypto.
Then we launch in the new year to ATHs for another March run.
I think this is unlikely, but needs to be considered if we see a big bounce.
A lot of confluence between:
a) trend lines
b) Fib levels
c) market structure
If this doesn't hold, next reasonable level is 33-34k for a bounce. But to be honest, if we get to that level - its such a significant break of market structure that any bounce is for selling.
Below 33k, game over folks (for at least 18 months).
Three potential outcomes (excl. a doomsday nuke).
I think bearish sentiment is close to peaking, which can either mean:
a) countertrade bullishly
b) capitulation into a multi-year bear market
Traditional markets are likely to show near term strength, but BTC is showing relative weakness against the SPX which concerns me. If BTC continues to show weakness, and...
Might look like an idiot in a few hours and probably won't take the trade in case of nuke - but potential swing to the upside....either to paint a right shoulder, or to power up to 41k-43k.
Scalp idea for a brief push to $50k as we break out of a descending wedge with a bullish order block as support, at which point we enter a serious danger zone 50-53k.
Will be looking to layer shorts at key resistance zones in this range with a hard SL of 53,333. Will be using 3-5x leverage.
Pray for me.
Very unsual price action, really strong resistance that should've been nuked by now but hasn't. Daily looks terrible but this gives my $30k break out vibes.
I'm hedged with a leveraged short, to counter-weight my spot position, but will remove quickly if we break the trend line and move up.
30% chance.
