Consolidation Ahead? Day 7 The Post-CPI whipsaw action in the index is a continuation of the consolidation theme that's been playing out on the markets for a few days now. If the index closes below 4150 today, our models indicate continued downward drift until some unexpectedly positive macro development shows up. If the index closes between 4100-4150 today then...
Consolidation Ahead? Day 5 On the fourth day since we first published "the surge from post-FOMC last week could be consolidating a bit in the near term, unless some unexpectedly bullish macro developments take place", the index has clearly confirmed that its bullish momentum has dissipated, and our positional models have turned bearish with a short position...
Consolidation Ahead? Day 4 The surge from post-FOMC last week could be consolidating a bit in the near term, unless some unexpectedly bullish macro developments take place. The risk is still for an upside spike than for a downside draft while the index is above 4100 on a daily close basis. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models are flat for now. Models...
Consolidation Ahead? Day 3 The surge from post-FOMC last week could be consolidating a bit in the near term, unless some unexpectedly bullish macro developments take place. If you are long, could be time to take some money off the table, and if you are short/wanting to go short then you might want to dip your toes but want to wait for a confirmation before...
Consolidation Ahead? Day 2 The surge from post-FOMC last week could be consolidating a bit in the near term, unless some unexpectedly bullish macro developments take place. If you are long, could be time to take some money off the table, and if you are short/wanting to go short then you might want to dip your toes but want to wait for a confirmation before...
Consolidation Ahead? The surge after the FOMC Wednesday and the NFP Friday last week could be consolidating a bit in the near term, unless some unexpectedly bullish macro developments take place. If you are long, could be time to take some money off the table, and if you are short/wanting to go short then you might want to dip your toes but want to wait for a...
Soft Landing, Big Tech Earnings...Goldilocks Dreams? The surge after the rather dovish Powell in the post-FOMC press conference, followed by the earnings from Meta...feeding the bullish spike in the markets, with investors potentially getting drunk on the dreams of Goldilocks scenario going forward. Until something harsh wakes them up to a different reality, this...
The FOMC Decision Day! No surprises in the rate decision just crossing the wires. Of course, the devil would be in the details, to be garnered from the press conference starting at 2:30pm. Nevertheless, our models are already indicating potential trading levels as below. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models are flat for now. Models indicate going...
The FOMC Decision Week - Day 2 With the FOMC Interest rate decision due this Wednesday, the markets may re-remember the interest rates factor. Whether the Fed's decision and the tone surprises the markets in either direction is going to determine if there would be a reversal or continuation of the recent melt-up in the markets. But, until that happens, the...
The FOMC Decision Week - Day 1 With the FOMC Interest rate decision due this Wednesday, the markets may re-remember the interest rates factor. Whether the Fed's decision and the tone surprises the markets in either direction is going to determine if there would be a reversal or continuation of the recent melt-up in the markets. But, until that happens, the...
Good News, Bad News? - Day 2 As the earnings season is picking up the speed, markets seem to be buoyant on the sentiment that the worst is over. It may not take much for the market sentiment to turn the other way. But, until that happens, the momentum is to the upside. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models currently are in a neutral bias. Models...
Good News Bad News? At the open, markets seem to be buoyant on the GDP and on Tesla earnings. It may not take much for the markets to interpret the good news on the GDP front as bad news on the interest rates. Our trading plans published yesterday, Tue. 01/24, stated: "With yesterday's daily close above 3985, our models have flipped to a bullish bias and will...
Roller Coaster Ride - Day 2 Our trading plans published yesterday, Tue. 01/24, stated: "With yesterday's daily close above 3985, our models have flipped to a bullish bias and will remain bullish while the index is above 4000. Nevertheless, models indicate a rather choppy market while the index is below 4015". As hypothesized, the market rolled over overnight and...
Earnings Earnings Everywhere... With yesterday's daily close above 3985, our models have flipped to a bullish bias and will remain bullish while the index is above 4000. Nevertheless, models indicate a rather choppy market while the index is below 4015. Positional Trading Models: Our positional trading models indicate going short on the close if the daily close...
Earnings Earnings Everywhere... The nature and the tone of this week's earnings releases is likely to bring in some choppiness into the price action. According to the trading plans published on Friday, 01/20: "If the index closes above 3950 level, our models will switch from the cautiously bearish bias to a neutral bias. A daily close above 3985 will see our...
Our models re-iterate for today the trading plans published for yesterday. The market conditions have not changed that much, and the range of yesterday's trading plans is still valid for today. Happy Trading! And, a great weekend ahead!
Upside Momentum Broken Down - Day 2 In our plans published Monday, 01/09, we stated: "The index is now approaching the resistance band in the range of 3960-4002, and the price action in this range determines the next leg". The lower bounds of this range has been decisively broken down yesterday. Our models are adapting a cautiously bearish bias while the index...
Earnings, Inflation, and China Re-start In our trading plans published Monday, 01/09, we stated: "The index is now approaching the resistance band in the range of 3960-4002, and the price action in this range determines the next leg". In our trading plans published yesterday, Tuesday 01/17, we wrote: "This range is still in effect for today's session. Models...