Weekly chart shows downward channel, awaiting double bottom then breakout.
I notice many traders looking at the lower highs and i understand the temptation to short as a good break below 1900 would be very profitable, however trend is friend, the lows on gold are getting higher , job numbers poor, DXY looks weak, and the chart looks bullish to me with a possible retest of the top trendline around 2142 around end of month...Im also...
Just an idea based on the basics, move up was explosive, looks like we are in a bull flag as we broke trendline support but are not dropping below the persistent horizontal support at 26 dollars, may just have formed a parralel support channel for a nice rise up.
After the August lull, i expect September to be a retrace month, then with tariff hikes biting and continuous weakening economic data I expect October to be the next leg down.
Lots going on here on the 4hr chart:- 1. 4HR Divergence, went up too far too quickly, triple top 2. end of 5 wave , a,B,c to follow?, soft bounce likely at 50 fib , but this breaks neckline, so c leg likely down to at least 61.8 retracement (55 dollar) completing the YAZ sequence. 3. Oil nearly always retraces from the first bounce (after a big...
Reasons in order of significance:- Retest of major down trendline 7062 is strong resistance line ( 0.38 fib) sloping diagonal trendline resistance completion of 4th corrective wave in a potential 5 wave sequence. Divergence on RSI (1HR) should materialise at 7062 I expect an ABC correction, difficult to say how low the correction will go but I expect it to take...
I think this rally has surprised everybody, this outlook show a symmetrical balanced view of what could take place in the coming weeks, there is harmony amongst the madness perhaps! I am expecting a rejection around 2750 this is the 200 DMA moving average on the daily chart and correlates with a trendline resistance 'highlighted'....The trigger for the short could...
RSI Overbought & divergence, (1HR) negative Chinese GDP data could see a shock to the market on Monday.
DXY looks to be trading in a channel, local fifth wave just finished, confirmed by very bearish A wave correction playing out now. I expect weakness now on the dollar through until Mid December , when it will touch the lower support line and resume its uptrend in the channel, I expect the uptrend to complete in March when it will retest the neckline of the former...
A 2019/2020 crash would have many casualties, With their huge debt and market saturation from competitors, Tesco could be one of them , too big to fail? A monthly close below 148 = a sudden drop into 'no mans land' and potential disaster for the company, 28p may or may not hold the weight of the fall.
Never recovered from 2008 crisis, fake money has just delayed the inevitable, Wants to go lower, 4th retest of 140p-150p, each test gets a weaker reaction until support breaks, good buy opportunity at 80p, although widespread panic will be flooding the market at this point and price could go much closer to zero , Barc won't be allowed to fail or its the end,...
In most trends we see zig zags, which is why on the medium/long term I am bearish on oil, we have just come out of a sudden and dramatic fall, there is a sell the rally mentality, therefore I don't think the oil will fly off in the opposite direction , instead we will see some stability through January and upside to 62 maybe 65 but downtrend will continue in...
Interesting to see each wave has its own month so far, I cannot see SPX climbing any further until its completed the B wave of wave 4 and retest the 2300 area, the A wave appears to be complete made up of 5 smaller waves.
This is an idea I have based on my knowledge of indices, gold, and premier oil (TICKER PMO)
Support trendilne gone, local inverted H & S is lopsided to the downside, next support is at 2200 which converges with another support trendilne , this is quite a drop which will play out over the next 4/5 weeks (probably) IMO.....but its just a bit of fun for me, I don't trade.
Looks like 1st wave is almost done, rejection at 1274 against long term trendline, I would expect an ABC correction from here down to 1204 level, correlates with oversold indices.
Price has been hugging the bottom of the channel , we have now broken out of the downtrend from early Oct, so the downside is limited, if price falls below channel there looks to be strong support around 58.6 where it will retest the downtrend line as well, on the upside there is potential for a bullish Santa rally to 65.8 area to test top of channel.