Tuzemoon

Tuzemoon

The red vertical dashed lines represent a cycle of strong lunar eclipses (bear market). The green vertical dashed lines represent a cycle of strong solar eclipses (bull market). The trend changes at the boundary of cycles. At least since 2013-2014.

Tuzemoon

At the moment, bitcoin has two ways in the next ~ 2 weeks: 1st - bitcoin is growing, bouncing off the level of ~ 55K 2nd - bitcoin reaches the level of ~55K, thing bounces off the level of ~45K (until the end of summer or early autumn 2024) And the end of the current bullish cycle at the level of ~100-300K (possibly 500K) is expected next winter: December 2024 -...

Tuzemoon Updated 

At the moment, the cost of BTC is about $39K. After halving the cost will be about 88K for the best miner at an electric power price of $0.10 per kWh

Tuzemoon

60-70K(Mar24) then 40-50K(Jun24) then 150-300K(Dec24) then 50-100K(May26) etc

Tuzemoon

The BTC price is squeezed between boundaries of the triangle. The exit will be epic: +10-15K up or -10-15K (unlikely) down in one-two week. Soon

Tuzemoon

Tnanx PlanB for his S2F & bokeb for this

Tuzemoon

Now the cost of BTC is lower than its price when mining on the best miner at an electricity cost of $0.01 per kWh. Bullrun started, as expected in November 2022.

Tuzemoon

may-june 2022: ~20K aug-sep 2022: ~40K nov-dec 2022: ~25K jan-mar 2023, we will hit prev ATH: ~70K may-jul 2023, we will return to S2F by PlanB: ~100K sep-nov 2024: ~1M

Tuzemoon

The cost of BTC is now about 20K, the next bull run will begin after November 2022.

Tuzemoon

The bull run is over, we will see the next ATH already in 2024 (~1M). Based on:

Tuzemoon

"Technical analysis" of the cost of mining BTC. We have already seen when in the bear market in the range from August 2018 to November 2020, the price of BTC pressed against the cost of production (best miner @ 0.1kWh). I expect that in the future the price, due to the increasing competition of miners, will not differ much from the cost price (after the 4th halving).

Tuzemoon

An assumption of how ethereum will behave after bitcoin turns around in May after 31-27K. Ethereum is already overvalued, the maximum that has been for the entire existence of this cryptocurrency is about 0.1-0.15. I am waiting for a fall to 0.05-0.04. BTC:

Tuzemoon

An assumption of how litecoin will behave after bitcoin turns around in May after 31-27K. Litecoin will not go below the 0.003 support level, will break through the long-term resistance level and may reach the 0.010-0.015 levels. It is worth considering that the next halving of the litecoin is very close... BTC:

Tuzemoon

The worst third scenario is added. It's good if the first one is implemented, but I'm still more inclined to the second one. After bitcoin reaches the level of about 31-27K, I am waiting for a reversal. The reversal point of the local trend is in May (approx). The same date has been moved to two other charts: litecoin and ethereum. The first rule of a...

Tuzemoon

We are less than half a year away from two bullmarket scenarios...

Tuzemoon

Due to the Chinese ban, the maximum will move from December 2021 to March 2022.

Tuzemoon

The next recalculation of the difficulty will take place in early July. China will move the equipment for the next few months. The production of the remaining miners will increase by ~20%, which will provoke a drop in value.

Tuzemoon

Red dot line - BTC cost price (best miners @ 0.10 $ / KWh, currently ~Antminer S19). Green dot line - BTC price prediction. The bull run will end at the end of the current year 2021 (or the beginning of the next 2022). At the beginning of 2023, the cost and price of BTC will be around 100K USD. The network hashrate at this time will be at 1000 Ehash/s.