UnderstandingBitcoinPrice

UnderstandingBitcoinPrice

For the past 30 years the SP500 has become the benchmark for every retail investor and the "de facto" product to beat inflation and preserver purchase power (replacing gold in the fiat era). When we price bitcoin relative to SP500 we can see how expensive or cheap bitcoin is against it. SP500 CARG is around 8%, yet bitcoin obliterates SP500 consistently since...

UnderstandingBitcoinPrice

Very interesting patters in MSTR stock when using Fibo levels. By taking the high of 2021 as the reference (fibo = 1) and projecting it to the current cycle we can see that: 2024 mid year top was 1.618 level and mid year low was 0.786 level. 2024 blow off top was 4.236 level. Now if we take the 2024 consolidation range and apply fibo to the top and lows...

UnderstandingBitcoinPrice

So by looking at Fibo levels, one can see that in the previous cycle (2017-2021) Bitcoin top was around 3.618 fibo level with respect to the previous ATH. Now, in this cycle we can see every leg up is also following Fibo levels: First leg from fibo 0 to 0.236 Second leg from fibo 0.236 to 0.5 Third leg from fibo 0.5 to 1 FOurth leg from fibo 1 to...

UnderstandingBitcoinPrice

So many people say bitcoin is like high beta nasdaq, but that is not the case if you plot the historical chart. Bitcoin just goes up against everything on the long term. Now if we compare to previous cycles, and apply the fibonacci retracements, we can see the previous cycle top was BTC = 1.618 times de Nasdaq 100 index. Assuming the same fibo retracement, the...

UnderstandingBitcoinPrice

Bitcoin priced in ounces of gold shows a clear uptrend on the long term. Following previous cycle movement for a similar Fibonacci levels, would take us this cycle to around a 100 ounces of gold per bitcoin, which at current USD prices would be around 350.000 usd per bitcoin. Remember, fiat money is debt. Bitcoin and gold are hard and real money. Don't fall into...

UnderstandingBitcoinPrice

Touching long term resistance

UnderstandingBitcoinPrice

Should start a bull run after earnings. Invalidated if below LPOS

UnderstandingBitcoinPrice

FB is not fundamentally overvalued given growth rate and ecommerce increasing presence via instagram. The only bearish thing is the news that came yesterday, even if it is old news, maybe the perfect excuse for a sell off.

UnderstandingBitcoinPrice

Previously it consolidated the 20k, 35, and 47-50k. I think it will consolidate the 60k level the next two weeks.

UnderstandingBitcoinPrice

Chart explains everything. Would like to be challenged by short thesis. Take care.

UnderstandingBitcoinPrice

So I just picked previous blow off tops from the last two years: - 5 of these blow off tops correct around 8%-12% and held the 200 MA: 3 of those touched the moving average and bounced. 2 of them did not even touched the MA. - 2 of them corrected more than 20% and lost the MA. Therefore: - There is high probability of a 2%-3% correction at least...

UnderstandingBitcoinPrice

Everybody is bearish so I am going to put a contrarian view. I just took the current bull run and create a ghost pattern given that the first part of the bull run (55 days) is similar to the second one (fractal), by doing this I derived a potential scenario in which a $100,000 bitcoin is possible using the same fractal pattern.

UnderstandingBitcoinPrice

Can 10x in next bull market.

UnderstandingBitcoinPrice

In accumulation range. Can moon in the next few months.

UnderstandingBitcoinPrice

Fundamental analysis: - Revenue growing (~30% YoY) - Going into crypto: increase in revenue will not be substantial at the beginning but this open a whole new product and business line for Paypal that can grow both organically and through adquisitions (custodian services for crypto, allowing merchants to process payments in crypto easily and keep it in crypto). -...

UnderstandingBitcoinPrice

Forget about the noise, we are in a multiyear gold bull market. Few people realize how big this gold bull run can be: - No alternative assets as fixed income is yielding negative rates and central banks can not increase them or everything will fall apart. Just bitcoin could compete with gold but it is a much smaller market. - All countries have huge amount of...

UnderstandingBitcoinPrice Updated 

It is cheap and we will probably be range bounded until November elections with some spikes until 45-50, maybe even 60.

UnderstandingBitcoinPrice Updated 

My favourite asset so far. Macro context is very supportive for higher prices (money printing, political instability, health and economic crisis...) My only two doubts are how high it will go and how long it will take. My estimates are 1900 in August and potential pullback to 1750$ in September (in case we have a vaccine). On any pullback, load the truck.