UnderstandingBitcoinPrice

UnderstandingBitcoinPrice

Super long term view to put in context the current events of March 2020 and try to assess the probabilities of a bear market. As you can see when you draw SPX in log scale you can draw some pretty accurate trendlines that hold for the whole history since 1929. March 2020 touched (and even dropped below) the lowest yellow trendline, so I just compared other...

UnderstandingBitcoinPrice Updated 

Nvidia approaching top of rising wedge. Rough estimates Short at 400$ Stop loss 425$ Target 1 300$ RR 1:4 Target 2 250$ RR 1:6

UnderstandingBitcoinPrice

Long term view of Kinross showing how junior gold miners provide leverage to gold bull markets, multiplying returns if you can handle volatility. Around 5$ could be a good entry point for 2-3 years holding period or swing trading in the channel.

UnderstandingBitcoinPrice

Superlong term view on Nasdaq. Interesting how spikes in VIX are followed by strong rallies (40%-100%) of the time once VIX calms down. Seems right now Nasdaq is in the 7000 to 11000 long term channel. So strategy seems simple, buy at 7000 - 8000 points, sell at 10000 - 11000 points. Now once we start seeing the effects of COVID on the economy, I see two...

UnderstandingBitcoinPrice

IAG in reaccumulation range. Buy at 2.2 Sell at 2.5 (15%) Stop at 2.14 (-3%) Profit risk ratio = 0.3:0.06 = 5:1

UnderstandingBitcoinPrice

Multiyear view of Inditex. - Distribution (Wyckoff) from 2015 to 2017. Range 29 to 32. Blow off top on 36 euros. - Second redistribution from 2018 to 2020. Range 24 to 28. Blow off top on 32 euros. - Potencial third redistribution 2020 to 2022. Range 18 to 24: Topping on 32 euros in December 2019. Almost 50% drop on March 2020 A - Support on 18,56...

UnderstandingBitcoinPrice Updated 

The current situation on the SP500 is at least, confusing, how is it possible that the SP500 has bounced nearly 30% from March 2020 lows given the current situation (pandemic, terrible macro data, fear and pessimism, etc). In this post I'll share my views about what this "non-sense" might be telling us... As you see in the chart, technically speaking, the current...

UnderstandingBitcoinPrice

Just my view on gold very long term. Secular bull market that started 2001 - 2011 initiated after 6 years of price depression, which can be seen as a multiyear cup and handle formation. We might have the same history again as 2013 - 2018 has been a period of price supression, and 2019 could be the start of a multiyear secular bull market. Projecting a similar...