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Stocks - SPXL/S&P Buy the Fear
SPXL
, 1D
Long
SPXL: Stocks - SPXL/S&P Buy the Fear
Updated 

Idea for SPXL: - Buy the Fear - Long Apr 14 111C (10.80 debit) GLHF - DPT

Volatility - UVXY
UVXY
, 1D
Long
UVXY: Volatility - UVXY
Updated 

Idea for UVXY: - Mistakenly closed previous position too early, but at least it gives more confirmation in the thesis. - DXY continuing its ascent, causing macro bearishness. - Efforts to break above 200D SMA on SPX continuously rejected. Waited for an SPX below the put wall at 4350 "to be sure". - There is risk in short positions pre-CNY, but there is a Quality...

Volatility - UVXY Wave 3
UVXY
, 1D
Long
UVXY: Volatility - UVXY Wave 3
Updated 

Idea for UVXY: - Continuation of the Taper Tantrum Vol expected. Long UVXY 18C Feb 18 (2.97 debit) GLHF - DPT

Stocks/Macro - SPX Blowoff Top of the Debt Bubble
SPX
, 1D
Short
SPX: Stocks/Macro - SPX Blowoff Top of the Debt Bubble
Updated 

Idea for Stocks: - I think we will decline to Q2 2022 at the least. - IMO, Market participants have completely misjudged inflation expectations and currency devaluation and mispositioned. Market seems largely positioned for goldilocks/reflation, inflation and growth, but nothing could be further from the truth. Inflation fears will not be talked about in 2022. -...

Black Swan - Omicron Omega
SPY
, 1D
Short
SPY: Black Swan - Omicron Omega
Updated 

Speculation for Macro: - State of Emergency and lockdown for 10 weeks due to Omicron variant. - Bear market until Feb 2022. "Move fast, move hard" - Naftali Bennett GLHF - DPT

Crypto - Bitcoin's 'Return to Normal'
BTCUSD
, 1D
Short
BTCUSD: Crypto - Bitcoin's 'Return to Normal'
Updated 

Idea for BTC: - My view on how a market with few participants functions. It is easier to do this in an immature market with fewer seasoned participants rather than a complicated index. You can predict the lifecycle of the entire move from the very first candle of it's genesis. - Very often, a big move in a direction precedes a trend in the opposite direction. -...

Gamestop - MOASS
GME
, 1W
Long
GME: Gamestop - MOASS
Updated 

Idea for GME: - The MOASS is here. - There is a global shortage of both US dollars and high quality collateral for debt (10-year US Treasury bonds). Why would the dollar be rising despite the high CPI prints? It's simple. To borrow, one must have collateral. - CS's Zoltan Pozsar explained in Nov. 19th Global Money Dispatch that currently, this demand is caused by...

Stocks - AAPL Long YOLO Puts
AAPL
, 1D
Short
AAPL: Stocks - AAPL Long YOLO Puts
Updated 

Idea for AAPL: - Short AAPL, another contrarian bet. - Nothing but bad news and hot air gamma squeeze. Long AAPL 135P 12/17 (0.22 debit) GLHF - DPT

Stocks - Moderna Nu Pump and Dump
MRNA
, 1D
Short
MRNA: Stocks - Moderna Nu Pump and Dump
Updated 

Idea for MRNA: - Contrarian bet - Investors believing that Nu variant will be a boon for Moderna and vaccine stocks. - I think the opposite. Exit for Vaccine pump and dumpers before the bear market. - Either the Nu var is a ruse, and we dont need boosters (bearish MRNA) - Or Nu var is resistant to all vaccines (bearish MRNA) Either way, very cheap to fade it...

Natural Gas - The "Energy Crisis" is Over
NATURALGAS
, 1D
Short
NATURALGAS: Natural Gas - The "Energy Crisis" is Over
Updated 

Idea for Natural Gas: - I expect that the "Energy Crisis" is largely over globally, and the speculative excesses will deflate with risk off deleveraging into 2022. - Already had called this reversal in energy: A wicked weekly wick to stop this advance by none other than Putin: GLHF - DPT

Crypto - Ethereum
ETHUSD
, 1D
Long
ETHUSD: Crypto - Ethereum
Updated 

Idea for EthUSD: - Just have a good feeling about this, speculative! - Strong uptrend. GLHF - DPT

Macro - Inflation Reversal
CPIENGSL
, 1M
Short
CPIENGSL: Macro - Inflation Reversal

Idea for Macro: - Just as the Fed shifts their narrative from "transitory" to "persistent" inflation... - November saw crude oil with a 6 sigma move to the downside. Oil is inflation. - Eurodollar futures curve inverted from 2024-2026. Next CPI print will be a bewildering miss, and by January's (December) print, the deflationary fears will start to settle, but...

Stocks - MCFE Long Calls
MCFE
, 1D
Long
MCFE: Stocks - MCFE Long Calls

Idea for MCFE: - Another speculative bet for the cyber security sector. GLHF - DPT

Volatility - The Big One
UVXY
, 1D
Long
UVXY: Volatility - The Big One

Idea for Volatility: - At last, its here. UVXY Long: VIX: Macro and Equities: Credit Stress: GLHF - DPT

Volatility - UVXY Long Dec. (Speculative)
UVXY
, 1D
Long
UVXY: Volatility - UVXY Long Dec. (Speculative)
Updated 

Idea for UVXY: - Long 14C December 17. - Still valid signal of VIX (double bottom now): - DXY , US10Y breaking out. - Complacency max, but still have Long Vol signal. GLHF - DPT

Macro - A Calamity
DXY
, 1D
Long
DXY: Macro - A Calamity
Updated 

Idea for DXY: - Had forecasted the DXY reversal in May: - A DXY over 95 will be a calamity for markets. Explanation: GLHF - DPT

Macro - DXY Falling Wedge Reversal Confirmed
DXY
, 100R
Long
DXY: Macro - DXY Falling Wedge Reversal Confirmed
Updated 

Idea for DXY: - Falling Wedge Breakout, Re-test and confirm rising ML Channel. - Likely USD enters an uptrend, risk assets see corrections. - Forecasted DXY bounce May 23: GLHF - DPT

Currencies - UUP Bullish on the Dollar
UUP
, 1D
Long
UUP: Currencies - UUP Bullish on the Dollar
Updated 

Idea for UUP (S2): - Fed moving rate hike expectations forward. - August Jackson Hole meeting will see the Fed begin 'talking about tapering' (even though they have been tapering for a while), why wait until then? Smart money will move before then. - Brazil hikes rates. EM's will first race to hike rates. - Fed and ECB will have to move by EOY. - Technical Double...

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