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Macro - Reading The Curve
US05Y
, 1M
US05Y: Macro - Reading The Curve
Updated 

Forecast for Macro: - Falling Wedge Breakout must be re-tested. - Bear Flattener coming as short-term rates rise with Fed tightening expectations: - 2x ATR spike in US02Y: - The Fed members will probably all have their turn to make comments, leaning hawkish. This should cause a rally in the US02Y. - Bonds Volatility Technically Bullish: - However, this will...

Long UVXY
UVXY
, 240
Long
UVXY: Long UVXY
Updated 

Long UVXY Aug 20 42C for 2.59 debit

Black Swan - US-China Phase 1 Deal
SPX
, 1W
Short
SPX: Black Swan - US-China Phase 1 Deal

Speculation for Macro: - 2018: Trump began trade war with China, and the market had the worst year in a decade (at the time). - 2020: US-China Phase 1 deal is signed, market crashes shortly after. - 2021: Market immediately rebounds and has the greatest bull market in history. IMO it was a run-up then sell the news by insiders, then BTD for the bull run to...

Volatility - Next Pop 50+
VIX
, 1M
Long
VIX: Volatility - Next Pop 50+

Idea for VIX: - VIX short positions unwinding. - Holding higher bottoms, forming a rounded bottom - typical before VIX spikes. - VIX has been in accumulation for a while. GLHF - DPT

Volatility - VIX Falling Wedge Breakout
VIX
, 10R
Long
VIX: Volatility - VIX Falling Wedge Breakout
Updated 

Idea for VIX: - Falling Wedge Breakout, Re-test the Wedge and enter upward ML Channel. - Using 2N-2.2N Frequency SL. GLHF - DPT

Macro - Global Inflation Expectations Rolling Over
US30Y
, 1W
Short
US30Y: Macro - Global Inflation Expectations Rolling Over
Updated 

Speculation for Macro: These are the underlying conditions: - Inflation expectations are what leads risk appetite. After all, who would hold or buy an asset expected to depreciate in value? - Global inflation expectations turning down and have been in a downtrend for decades. Of course it is deflationary. If DEBT fueled GDP growth (for appearances over...

Stocks - Amazon 2500 Next
AMZN
, 1D
Short
AMZN: Stocks - Amazon 2500 Next

Idea for AMZN: - AMZN drops on earnings from missing on expectations. - Inflation expectations are everything, not earnings or EPS. - Not a BTD, but reversal... It can go to 1600 after. Big Tech will be in trouble. GLHF - DPT

Stocks - Nokia Pops (S1)
NOK
, 1D
Long
NOK: Stocks - Nokia Pops (S1)

Idea for NOK: - NOK quietly and pleasantly on the rise. - Bullish trend (S1). - IMO one of the best holds out there. GLHF - DPT

Stocks - Big Oil Earnings
XOP
, 1D
Short
XOP: Stocks - Big Oil Earnings

Idea for XOP: - The reflation trade is dead - just a reminder: - We saw big tech earnings in a (growth) deflationary environment: - Now it's Big Oil earnings time. GLHF - DPT

Stocks - What Next?
NI225
, 1D
Short
NI225: Stocks - What Next?
Updated 

Idea for indices: - As expected, Robinhood IPO was the trigger for global sell-off (other factors involved obviously, but I have been posting about everything macro related in other posts). - China continuing to lead down. - Look how the deflationary wave hits HSI > Nikkei > EU > US. Dome tops forming everywhere. - ECB actually has greater QE than US, so EU index...

Stocks - Nasdaq 15% Down Next
NQ1!
, 1W
Short
NQ1!: Stocks - Nasdaq 15% Down Next

Idea for Nasdaq: - 15% correction by Gann. - Nikkei also seems to be telling 15% move next - 40% possible: GLHF - DPT

Stocks - Robinhood IPO will dump markets
HOOD
, 1D
Short
HOOD: Stocks - Robinhood IPO will dump markets
Updated 

Idea for Stocks: Remember Coinbase IPO and Bitcoin? This is probably the queue to complete distribution. That is all. GLHF - DPT

Bonds - TLT Bullish
TLT
, 1W
Long
TLT: Bonds - TLT Bullish

Idea for TLT: - Price is in quite an elegant ML Channel (upperbound). - Rising Volume and Volatility. - Over key MAs (holding trend). Bonds too, only go up in time, and can be interchanged with equities when there is a bear market in stocks. Smart money already piling in (hedge or predicting a stock bear market). We can play the bonds game soon. GLHF - DPT

Stocks - SP500 Divergences
SPX
, 1D
SPX: Stocks - SP500 Divergences
Updated 

Idea for SP500: - For me there is no question that there will be a major correction in indices in the near future (by EOY - Q1 2022). There is also no question for me that it will occur before interest rate hiking by the Fed (if they indeed raise them). It is just a matter of getting the right entry and getting the prize. - Don't be excited by daily fluctuations...

Black Swan - Cyber Polygon
VIX
, 1D
Long
VIX: Black Swan - Cyber Polygon

Idea for Black Swan: - Watch cyberattacks on key infrastructure. - WEF is an open book. - It is the catalyst. GLHF - DPT

UVXY Long Puts
UVXY
, 60
Short
UVXY: UVXY Long Puts
Updated 

Long UVXY 30P Aug 6 4.20 debit Since its confirmed to be a backside move, scalp the downside

UVXY Long Call
UVXY
, 1D
Long
UVXY: UVXY Long Call
Updated 

39C Aug 20 for 4.40 debit

Long IWM 215C Jul 30
IWM
, 240
Long
IWM: Long IWM 215C Jul 30
Updated 

Long IWM 215C Jul 30 3.54 debit It can go back to ML before more weakness

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