UnknownUnicorn1156963

UnknownUnicorn1156963

Copper Futures were very volatile last week. Usually, it indicates a big move coming. I think this market sets for decline as well: COT – commercials have one of the largest net short positions we have seen for quite a while The cycle is turning to the downside with a potential reversal point at the beginning of November Daily chat has an interesting pattern...

UnknownUnicorn1156963

EUR Futures are still consolidating. Last week the Department of Labor gave instructions on how to implement the executive order that partially extends federal unemployment benefits signed by President Donald Trump. But it was not enough to get a dollar out of consolidation. Fundamentally, nothing changed for both currencies. EUR has clear support and resistance...

UnknownUnicorn1156963

Early this week the market can test 1.1630 and later bounce for a few days to form a signal for sellers. There is no need to hurry and pick up a trade now. Let the market do its thing and form some pattern to get clear entry with a good risk/reward ratio. The main reason for potential weakness is the bullish setup in DXY. I made a post about it. Below you can see...

UnknownUnicorn1156963

Some time ago we discussed a possible retest of 3400 in SP500. That is exactly what is happening right now. 3400 is the magnet now. The Advance Decline Line is weak. So, likely we will see a profit booking near the double top. Besides, we see signs of distribution in volumes. Big players are getting out of the market slowly during the last few weeks. I am looking...

UnknownUnicorn1156963

Choppy trading in SP500 continues. All declines were bought back quickly last week. It seems to be positive. However… Advance Decline Line doesn’t support this. It is negative in a short-term perspective. Based on cycle studies we can expect to get buy signal around 10 – 15 August. Till that time we will likely see more choppiness with a bias to the downside. I...

UnknownUnicorn1156963

The Australian dollar rallied above 0.72 and was immediately rejected. But it still holds the above the daily trendline. Potentially this rally can be extended to 0.73. Buyers have to protect their positions with tight stops. Commercials (based on COT) keep adding to their short positions, the cycle is turning to the downside. That makes me believe a selloff is...

UnknownUnicorn1156963

Coming week can bring turbulence to markets. Special attention has to be paid to the SP500. The technical analysis is still neutral. We got rejection last week, but it happened with a low volume. It can’t be considered a valid swing failure. If 3170 – 3140 holds, we can see a retest of 3400 and possible double top formation. However, fewer stocks support this...

UnknownUnicorn1156963

We already talked about coming decline in Soybean and finally, we are close to an entry. Commercials are heavily short and evaluation index shows Soybean is overvalued. If on Monday, we break below Friday’s low to form a lower high, that’s our entry. Otherway, wait till trendline breaks.

UnknownUnicorn1156963

Last week I got a lot of emails regarding buying Dollar. Guys, it is not time yet. We have a good setup in this market – commercials are long, the evaluation index shows the dollar is undervalued, but time matters a lot in this business. We have to get price action confirmation. I would like to see ‘wash-out low’ before a rally starts. Besides, we have a clear...

UnknownUnicorn1156963

It has been a long time since our last ETFs discussion. Today I have something to share. IYR (US Real Estate) is getting ready for a new decline. COVID is a real disaster for an offline business. Thousands of restaurants and other retail businesses have already closed and this number will be increasing. It is a dangerous sign. With that in mind, we can experience...

01:33

UnknownUnicorn1156963 Updated 

Not much has changed in the stock market. We are still in the same range. Based on the rejection we got last week, we can expect SP500 to test 32xx range (possibly even higher to form a double top near 3400). Advanced Decline Line broke higher than it was at the beginning of this year. That is bullish for the short-term. Based on cycles, we can expect trend...

UnknownUnicorn1156963

We got a nice rejection near the first level of resistance (I mentioned it in previous SP500 analysis). Sellers entered with good volume, but the trendline is still holding!! Likely there will be attempt to break it. There is a possibility to retest 2 important zones before this attempt - previous swing failure and yesterday's top (to form double top). Don't hurry...

UnknownUnicorn1156963 Updated 

As we expected SP500 rallied before July 4th. We still don’t have any swing signals. Based on cycles and seasonal indicators we can see a choppy trading coming week or two and formation of distribution with possible upthrust near 3200. If that happens, we can expect selloff. Price action confirmation and divergence with the advanced decline line needed. For now,...

02:01

UnknownUnicorn1156963

Some time ago we have talked about EUR COT reports. Swing traders should focus on taking sell signals. Commercials are short this market, while retailers are heavily buying. We saw almost the same in 2018 before a big decline in EUR. I believe the story repeats. However, we don’t have a good entry yet. I have a feeling price will make false breakup before the...

00:58

UnknownUnicorn1156963

Wheat futures rallied last week as it was expected. Congrats on your profits! Wheat is one of my favorite instruments. It follows setups very well. Many traders focus on more volatile instruments. But that is wrong. As traders, we have to be focused on a less speculative instrument that gives a better risk/reward ratio. I believe the price will retest recent highs...

UnknownUnicorn1156963

Price has made a higher high. Normally it should test higher low now, before making a new high. Note today we wait for the important US data. So better stay neutral, data can ruin this setup

UnknownUnicorn1156963 Updated 

USDCAD is at a strong sellers zone. However, rejection with significant volume is needed to confirm bias. So, watch the volume. If sellers step in, 1.35100 - 1.34900 is the nearest magnet

UnknownUnicorn1156963 Updated 

Buyers have passed important sellers zone near 1.2400 with significant volume. Range near 1.2400 is the nearest magnet now. Once retested and rejected we can consider longs with the final target near 1.26500. Note 1.23500 range has to hold to keep structure valid.