After a long uninterrupted bull move from 3/13 to 7/27, we only had a 0.35 retrace from red B to red C. This is not natural, 0.5 or 0.618 would be more appropriate, and red C did not complete a move to a prior pivot. Also, black C posted what we call a black candle. I know its not black here -- if you chart this at stockcharts.com you see a black candle. Black...
1.69% of SPX Bounced off the 50% fib at key pivot support. Under accumulation since 12/26 (weekly chart) currently flagging on daily and ready to go higher.
3.18% of SPX I would wait for a 50% retrace on this to fill the gap at 321.61 before I entered a long position. Might be waiting a while.
3.21 % of SPX Broke above weekly ichy cloud on 7/3. RSI(12) weekly at 63.94 shows signs of topping. above daily ichy cloud rising 50 day ema rising faster than 200 day ema accum.distr trend is declining My take: currently it is running in a solid channel. As long as that channel doesn't break, it is a good dip buy long. RSI(9) on daily showing some decline,...
MSFT: 6.49% of SPX below Ichy cloud on daily (not shown) below sharply declining 50 day EMA Declining accum/distr trend (under distribution) declining RSI(9) on daily. attempted a bottom above the 50% fib on daily currently at the top edge of a pennant flag channel, after a failed breakout attempt from the channel. a key question to ask: is this pennant flag a...
Since the top 7 stocks in the SPX comprise 27.3% of the SPX, I thought of looking at their prospects. AAPL: 7.12 % of SPX. Below Ichy cloud (not shown) on daily. under sharply declining 50 day EMA already touched a gann confluence on 8/18 and is attempting a rally above the 50% fib on daily. (this is only 23% retracement off the weekly fib) declining...
As you can see, a Hawkish Fed does not necessarily have a momentous impact on gold. From 12/16 to 12/18, the Fed went on a hiking spree and gold fluctuated at a level between 1300 and 1100 over the period. So there was a base set over a two year period. When the Fed pivoted and halted the interest hikes, gold jumped and then leveled for a while until rates were...
I always get the best long term reading on the SPY with the Gann fann squared from COVID low (3/2020) to all-time high (1/2022). The square line is the red ray emanating from the leftmost circle (square). As you can see, since the low on 10/13/22, we have been on a square 45 degree trajectory. The ABCD pattern topped at C on the upper 2 STD channel of the...
CSCO, synonymous with the Internet. Year 2000 darling. The internet was wild west, the future. It did become the future, and is everywhere in our life today. If you bought CSCO at 82 it during the hype in March 2000, you would still be a bag holder 23 years later. NVDA chart looks almost identical to the CSCO chart of March 2000. I am not saying that it does...
Gold futures have retraced .618 to 1915.71 from the high on the daily chart, and is attempting a reversal from a daily double bottom. Oversold on the daily RSI(9). It also sits on a key Gann confluence area (the circle) at 1921.50. Must hold here, or else risk falling lower in a low volume area to 1894.6 (low volume node). I expect upside in the near future,...
Tomorrow, 8/18, is a critical day for Semis. Should the selling continue, to the tune of -1.38% off today's close, and we could see a break of a key Gann Confluence support at 143.50 (middle circle), which is a prior pivot (left circle). Below that area is free-fall (yellow highlighted), low volume, and little support. The 136 area I had pegged a while back on...
VRTX I already own, looking to add some more pharma in due time. HALO has good upside, I calculate +25 pct from 41.16 buy point to dashed line 51.63. 21/50/100 EMA crossover. 17.5 pct ROIC, 5.1 pct free cash flow yield (so so), accelerating revenue growth, buybacks, ROE 105%, Operating margin, 42.49 pct. Upward revised analyst projections. The big negative, it...
The pharmaceuticals index has predictable half cycle periodicity, about 13 weeks. I will be looking to buy some pharmas somewhere near early November, since December is a slam dunk for pharmaceuticals with higher highs 79% of the time (20 year seasonality). I am working on a few prospects now, and will set my alerts...
From Covid low (red A) on 3/2020 to all time high on 12/27/2021 (green A), we retraced not quite .618 to green B at .588. Notice that XLK topped in December 2021 and led the general market (SPY) decline that happened in January 2022. We have since set a new high at green C at 181.46. This is 6.9 pct higher than prior high of 12/2021, but close enough to be...
Solid semi out of the Netherlands. Finbox models have a 25% upside, and that is green point D on the ABCD. The green ABCD is cloned off the red ABCD. I would definitely add some at green point C or the Red dashed line. But a solid break and hold below green C would be a trend reversal. I don't see that happening with the good volume support.
After the all time high of 479.98 on 1/2022, we draw a Gann Box and fan from the COVID low on 3/2020 to the high on 1/2022. The 45 degree line is the red ray, and according to Gann, any price action below this line is a challenge to overcome to the upside. We achieved price=time equilibrium at 50% retrace (point A), 348.11 on 10/13/2022. After that, a nice run...
Not much analysis needed with this. Setting new all time highs as we chart. Going higher.....
Likely further selling, 7% off the most recent high of 181.46, to 168.76. This would take XLK to the lower part of the bullish forward Ichimoku cloud (not shown), and below the 50 day exponential moving average (not shown). There is still bull here, should it reverse back upward, since it would be inside the upward regression channel drawn from 10/13/22 low (black...